ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1621 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:47 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:General feel from the Gulf coast was that it's "Just a TS" and maybe a weak cat 1. (well earlier today it was). Tomorrow is going to be insane since there is only maybe 2/3 of the day to do anything.


Exactly right. People are thinking 30 or 40 mph winds. I'm a little east in Pensacola, but I gotta say, I'm a little nervous, such a big blow up on the east side,


It's well to the east of the forecast track too it seems.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1622 Postby smithtim » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Will it never end? :eek:

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone on the Northern Gulf Coast this evening.


Likewise praying for the good people of gulf coast!!!

This situation is very concerning as nate is currently at the intensity was forecasted for landfall and appears to be entering RI and this east moving near loop... worrisome especially for Mobile- Pensacola area. But I know people up there are smart about these things & prepared - I lived in area for 5 years- just hoping people get the info quickly as this is fast moving!
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1623 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm

This is why evacuations on the MS gulf coast should've already been ordered... it is going to be a mess in the morning. Luckily I live a little farther inland and don't have to deal with surge
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1624 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm

Isn't the 65 kt estimate a little bit conservative?? :eek:
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1625 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm

Personally, that is some of the coldest convection I have ever seen in the GOM/ Atl basin
Image
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1626 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm

Well it looks like family will definitely be having to evac in the morning...if this makes a run at cat 2 tomorrow morning they will be having to pull the mower and travel trailer to high ground and try to get out of there. right now NHC seems a little east of the guidance, which is seeming to be back over Hancock county...that will make a difference for my fam. current track is right over Pascagoula though I am getting a bit concerned.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1627 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:49 pm

At this forward speed it does not really matter if it goes over the loop current or not..
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1628 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:49 pm

Coaster wrote:Exactly where is the Loop Current located at? How long does Nate need to stay in the Loop Current for significant intensification to occur?


He has 24-30 hours over waters that are plenty warm. With the fast speed of the storm the depth of the warm waters aren’t as crucial but rather the upper level environment. Should remain favorable up until landfall so this could strengthen all the way, maybe cat 3-4 if trends continue.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1629 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:49 pm

Anyone on the east side of the track should be particularly worried because of how fast it's moving. The winds will be much stronger and water could pile up very quickly.

A Cat 3 LF is looking like a strong possibility and it may be intensifying up till LF, so that plus the fast forward motion will accelerate the wind threat.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1630 Postby kn4ds » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:53 pm

I remain concerned that the western Atlantic ridge may be overdone in the models... and the track could shift further east, in line with observations over the last day or so.

An eastward shift in the forecast track would not surprise me in the next 12 hours (yes, I know the forecast has shifted slightly west this evening).
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1631 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:53 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Now this is becoming a very serious situation. I just hope he doesn't slow down any, rather have a storm come in with 140 mph winds moving at 30 MPH, then a storm with a 115 MPH winds moving at 10 MPH.

MY question is what would happen if for some reason with this possibly going through RI right now, could he slow down his forward speed and possibly move a little more to the West?
. Uhhh.... no, definitely not!! 140 mph is many times more destructive than 115- it's an exponential increase. Also the faster it moves the further inland damaging winds are spread.


Then you haven't lived through some of the majors. I much rather have a storm that is only going to be hitting one spot for a very short amount of time than constantly for many hours. Look at Harvey and Irma. Irma was moving at a very slow 10 to 15 mph and caused some damage but Harvey didn't move and caused much more damage.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1632 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:54 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070352
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 46 20171007
034230 2111N 08626W 8429 01535 0054 +169 +153 246029 029 029 001 03
034300 2110N 08626W 8432 01531 0053 +170 +158 243028 028 028 000 00
034330 2108N 08626W 8429 01532 0054 +170 +161 240028 028 026 001 03
034400 2107N 08627W 8433 01531 0052 +172 +159 239027 027 025 001 00
034430 2105N 08627W 8426 01536 0054 +170 +158 242027 028 024 001 00
034500 2104N 08627W 8430 01532 0055 +170 +158 241028 028 024 001 03
034530 2102N 08627W 8428 01537 0055 +170 +163 238028 029 020 001 03
034600 2101N 08627W 8430 01535 0056 +170 +164 235028 028 022 000 00
034630 2059N 08628W 8429 01535 0056 +170 +163 236028 028 020 001 00
034700 2058N 08628W 8431 01534 0058 +170 +165 236027 027 022 000 03
034730 2056N 08628W 8429 01538 0059 +170 +164 236026 027 020 000 00
034800 2055N 08628W 8429 01539 0061 +167 +152 235025 026 020 001 01
034830 2053N 08628W 8429 01538 0063 +169 +144 237025 025 020 000 03
034900 2052N 08628W 8431 01538 0063 +168 +139 236024 025 022 001 03
034930 2050N 08629W 8430 01539 0063 +170 +126 237024 024 021 001 03
035000 2049N 08629W 8429 01542 0065 +170 +117 237024 024 018 001 03
035030 2047N 08629W 8429 01540 0065 +170 +117 235024 024 017 001 03
035100 2046N 08629W 8429 01541 0066 +170 +115 236024 024 017 000 00
035130 2044N 08629W 8429 01540 0064 +173 +115 236023 024 018 000 00
035200 2043N 08629W 8429 01542 0064 +176 +118 234023 024 021 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1633 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:54 pm

Well 00z models need to be thrown out for the ones that are initialized wrong...
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1634 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well 00z models need to be thrown out for the ones that are initialized wrong...



would the weaker initializations portend that their tracks are probably a bit too far west(like a stronger stystem might follow the eastern side of the cone more?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1635 Postby ApproximateKnowledge » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:58 pm

Holy cow. Earlier today this thing didn't even have a core! I was wondering what was going to happen with the nuts heat content in the Caribbean, and I guess I have my answer. I haven't seen explosive core convection like that in the Atlantic since Wilma.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1636 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:General feel from the Gulf coast was that it's "Just a TS" and maybe a weak cat 1. (well earlier today it was). Tomorrow is going to be insane since there is only maybe 2/3 of the day to do anything.


Exactly right. People are thinking 30 or 40 mph winds. I'm a little east in Pensacola, but I gotta say, I'm a little nervous, such a big blow up on the east side,


It's well to the east of the forecast track too it seems.


some ensemble probabilistic guidance I have seen showed this missing the Yucatan, and still coming in near New Orleans
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1637 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:01 pm

The transformation from about six hours ago to what it is right now is among the most impressive I've seen in my years of tracking tropical cyclones

2145 UTC

Image

currently

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1638 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:01 pm

URNT12 KNHC 070355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/03:16:30Z
B. 22 deg 26 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1323 m
D. 60 kt
E. 084 deg 32 nm
F. 152 deg 89 kt
G. 088 deg 29 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1527 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E05/30/20
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 22
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 088 / 29 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 3 KT
;

If the eyewall closes...look out!
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1639 Postby smithtim » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:01 pm

bella_may wrote:This is why evacuations on the MS gulf coast should've already been ordered... it is going to be a mess in the morning. Luckily I live a little farther inland and don't have to deal with surge


Yeah I saw on TWC today the governor or mayor kind of joking about yeah we're gonna ride out this cruzin the coast event & get all the revenue from Saturday @@
Last edited by smithtim on Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:09 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1640 Postby joey » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:02 pm

Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
Exactly right. People are thinking 30 or 40 mph winds. I'm a little east in Pensacola, but I gotta say, I'm a little nervous, such a big blow up on the east side,


It's well to the east of the forecast track too it seems.


some ensemble probabilistic guidance I have seen showed this missing the Yucatan, and still coming in near New Orleans


If he slows down to let's say 15 mph would the front catch him and turn him he before landfall thanks
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