ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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bella_may
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1661 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
bella_may wrote:00z gfs shifted west just a hair. Not even gonna talk about their intesity track because it's irrelevant


cant really talk about any of the models for 00z that are initialized wrong... maybe the 00z euro might have the correct intensity and position.. being that intensity can play a huge role in track.. for instacne the noname system has clearly broken down faster since the pressure field from nate has grown quite a bit.. that means less of a bend back the nw..... more likely a straight north track..


Some of the models did show nate missing the Yucatán and still making landfall close to Nola. It's still moving nnw but who knows at this point lol
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1662 Postby ApproximateKnowledge » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:16 pm

Alyono wrote:
joey wrote:
Alyono wrote:
some ensemble probabilistic guidance I have seen showed this missing the Yucatan, and still coming in near New Orleans


If he slows down to let's say 15 mph would the front catch him and turn him he before landfall thanks


not going to slow. If anything, it will accelerate even more


Even if it *did* catch him - so what? There's no exit except through the US at this point.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1663 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:18 pm

kn4ds wrote:
bella_may wrote:Not fast enough unfortunately


Quite slow enough for my tastes... if it dives quicker, that will send Nate further east... yeah, good for you, not so great for the Florida panhandle, nor those of us in middle Georgia.


Touchè my friend
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1664 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:18 pm

Pressure of 988mb is already as strong or stronger than most globals had this at landfall. I’m thinking sub 960mb is possible here. Category 3. I hope the Gulf Coast is ready for this tomorrow... could be really bad especially a track just west of NO.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1665 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:18 pm

How much of Nate will steal the Western Caribbean temperatures? Or shall I say, how much of the energy will be tampered with?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1666 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:18 pm

To be honest I bet this was a center reformation.. I remember the previous pass from NOAA then AF showed the center getting pulled around.. but that is a hugeeee jump north or an hour and a half ...

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1667 Postby TJRE » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:20 pm

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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1668 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:21 pm

Here we go again, there's nothing to stop Nate from intensifying right up to landfall. He could very easily be a major,
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1669 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:21 pm

Watching this closely in Fort Walton Beach. I posted about the model intensity being way off earlier this afternoon. I fully expect at least hurricane force gusts here. Any other Florida panhandlers in here?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1670 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

Sucker is moving so fast, looks like the HH's had to change their flight pattern to catch up. 8-)
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1671 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

Through 12:12am EDT:

Image

Image
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1672 Postby kthmcc7319 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Watching this closely in Fort Walton Beach. I posted about the model intensity being way off earlier this afternoon. I fully expect at least hurricane force gusts here. Any other Florida panhandlers in here?

Watching this all go down from Choctaw Beach, Walton County

Just left to house to gas up the car. Will consider evacuation in the morning. Concerned about a more northernly path versus the projected nw track
Last edited by kthmcc7319 on Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1673 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Watching this closely in Fort Walton Beach. I posted about the model intensity being way off earlier this afternoon. I fully expect at least hurricane force gusts here. Any other Florida panhandlers in here?

Hey neighbor, Santa Rosa county here, Pace. Just to the east of Pensacola . Stay safe over there.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1674 Postby Lane » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Watching this closely in Fort Walton Beach. I posted about the model intensity being way off earlier this afternoon. I fully expect at least hurricane force gusts here. Any other Florida panhandlers in here?


In Fort walton.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1675 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:23 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Sucker is moving so fast, looks like the HH's had to change their flight pattern to catch up. 8-)


Again I think the center jumped/reformed with that convective burst...
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1676 Postby kn4ds » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:24 pm

bella_may wrote:
kn4ds wrote:
bella_may wrote:Not fast enough unfortunately


Quite slow enough for my tastes... if it dives quicker, that will send Nate further east... yeah, good for you, not so great for the Florida panhandle, nor those of us in middle Georgia.


Touchè my friend

There are no winners in this situation.

I think the front occludes, and has no impact at all on Nate.

I remain convinced the key to Nate's steering is the sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic. I'm ok with looking like an idiot in my first interaction here on Storm2K, but I think the models have held on to that too long, and it may not be as strong as advertised.

The thing there is just a little bit weaker than the models want it to be could result in a N motion rather than NNW they're predicting.

What it comes down to at the end of the day is we just don't know, this is a system that's not doing what it has been forecast to do, and all we can really do is wait and see.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1677 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:24 pm

000
WTNT61 KNHC 070329
TCUAT1

Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the
center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Avila
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1678 Postby La Breeze » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:25 pm

Is the ULL moving across the GOM still in existence, and if so, is it still having an affect on Nate?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1679 Postby smithtim » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well 00z models need to be thrown out for the ones that are initialized wrong...


Good point as big difference from when data was read, few hours back, to what we're seeing now!
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1680 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:25 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070422
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 49 20171007
041230 2111N 08531W 8426 01551 //// +165 //// 210035 036 031 002 01
041300 2112N 08530W 8429 01548 //// +168 //// 211035 036 032 002 01
041330 2112N 08530W 8429 01548 //// +158 //// 207033 035 031 003 05
041400 2115N 08528W 8426 01552 //// +164 //// 204032 033 024 003 05
041430 2116N 08529W 8430 01545 //// +167 //// 201032 032 030 001 05
041500 2118N 08530W 8434 01541 //// +169 //// 204035 036 031 001 05
041530 2120N 08530W 8430 01544 //// +170 //// 201033 035 029 003 05
041600 2122N 08531W 8426 01546 0075 +173 //// 199032 033 031 013 01
041630 2123N 08532W 8432 01539 0075 +168 +167 213034 035 036 011 03
041700 2125N 08533W 8430 01542 0062 +173 +161 213034 034 031 004 00
041730 2126N 08534W 8430 01541 0062 +175 +163 213033 033 026 001 00
041800 2128N 08534W 8429 01543 0059 +175 +160 214034 034 026 001 03
041830 2130N 08535W 8430 01539 0059 +175 +156 211034 034 028 001 03
041900 2131N 08536W 8429 01541 0061 +175 +158 211034 034 031 001 00
041930 2133N 08537W 8430 01538 0059 +173 +161 208034 035 031 001 00
042000 2135N 08538W 8430 01539 0061 +170 +164 207034 035 032 003 00
042030 2136N 08539W 8429 01538 0058 +171 +164 207035 035 034 003 00
042100 2138N 08539W 8433 01534 0057 +171 +167 207035 036 037 003 00
042130 2140N 08540W 8422 01545 0056 +170 +167 209036 037 034 006 00
042200 2141N 08541W 8433 01534 0055 +174 +167 211038 038 040 003 03
$$
;
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