ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1581 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:16 pm

74kt sfmr now.. along with many others to support 85 moh
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1582 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:16 pm

The SFMR is all flagged, but I think there is enough confidence for at least 65 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1583 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:16 pm

Pretty much is a hurricane right now, despite the highest SFMR winds are all flagged.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1584 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:18 pm

Next advisory will be a hurricane with those readings possibly 70-75 knots at this rate.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1585 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:18 pm

Pressure probably down to 984 ish
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1586 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 pm

I hate to say it, but RI looks like a strong possibility at the moment. The IR brightness temperatures are about as cold as you'll ever see for a ATL TC. Some grid points colder than -90C! From what recon is finding, I would upgrade to a hurricane ASAP.

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1587 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:22 pm

I know it has been mentioned today quite a bit, but I am still pretty amazed that Nate tracked a fair bit east of the forecast track all day today. This morning, based on the official track, I expected we would be watching Nate cross the NE Yucatan, and he went directly through the center of the Yucatan channel. This is quite a large track error, and rare these days. Not saying the NHC blew it or anything, just amazed that errors like this can still happen with such tight model agreement. Shows we still need to be on guard with track forecasts, even within 24 hours of landfall.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1588 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:23 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:I know it has been mentioned today quite a bit, but I am still pretty amazed that Nate tracked a fair bit east of the forecast track all day today. This morning, based on the official track, I expected we would be watching Nate cross the NE Yucatan, and he went directly through the center of the Yucatan channel. This is quite a large track error, and rare these days. Not saying the NHC blew it or anything, just amazed that errors like this can still happen with such tight model agreement. Shows we still need to be on guard with track forecasts, even within 24 hours of landfall.


The shift east means that if it continues on the 350 or so heading, it will go right over the Loop Current. I'm also surprised they didn't extend the Hurricane Warning eastward.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1589 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:24 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070322
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 43 20171007
031230 2224N 08556W 8426 01418 9894 +213 +177 191060 060 044 001 03
031300 2224N 08558W 8432 01405 9888 +207 +180 193057 060 047 003 00
031330 2224N 08600W 8429 01396 9879 +204 +191 197047 056 048 001 03
031400 2225N 08601W 8433 01391 9869 +213 +183 196034 038 039 001 00
031430 2225N 08603W 8421 01399 9864 +220 +173 191028 031 032 001 00
031500 2225N 08605W 8440 01377 9866 +213 +184 195018 025 026 001 03
031530 2226N 08607W 8429 01389 9864 +218 +178 209014 016 /// /// 03
031600 2226N 08608W 8428 01392 9868 +213 +184 179005 012 016 001 03
031630 2226N 08610W 8427 01396 9874 +210 +182 038005 007 019 001 00
031700 2226N 08612W 8430 01400 9883 +206 +181 002009 009 017 001 03
031730 2226N 08614W 8433 01406 9888 +210 +177 358010 010 015 001 03
031800 2225N 08615W 8428 01413 9893 +209 +176 348008 009 015 000 03
031830 2224N 08616W 8430 01415 9899 +205 +178 338011 012 021 001 00
031900 2222N 08617W 8422 01427 9908 +196 +187 322017 020 027 001 00
031930 2221N 08618W 8436 01418 9911 +199 +190 302022 023 032 001 03
032000 2219N 08618W 8430 01428 //// +188 //// 287025 025 030 002 01
032030 2217N 08618W 8426 01442 9931 +196 +180 274027 028 032 000 00
032100 2216N 08618W 8438 01437 9943 +190 +176 271028 029 031 001 03
032130 2214N 08619W 8424 01457 9954 +179 +178 269026 027 025 001 01
032200 2213N 08619W 8434 01451 //// +175 //// 265026 027 026 000 01
$$
;

Pressure 986mb.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1590 Postby Jag95 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:24 pm

Amazing what just a couple of hours can do in the right conditions. Convection just exploding in coverage and intensity. Not looking good for the Gulf Coast.
Last edited by Jag95 on Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1591 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The SFMR is all flagged, but I think there is enough confidence for at least 65 kt right now.


don't use the auto flagging. Those winds are perfectly valid
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1592 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:25 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I hate to say it, but RI looks like a strong possibility at the moment. The IR brightness temperatures are about as cold as you'll ever see for a ATL TC. Some grid points colder than -90C! From what recon is finding, I would upgrade to a hurricane ASAP.

Image

This convection signature is not normal, it's one of the strongest I've seen in the Atlantic. It resembles the WPAC and SPAC in cloudtop temperatures for CDO of rapidly intensifying storms.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1593 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:26 pm

Weather channel talking about RI being a real possibility now
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1594 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:27 pm

Looks like they missed the center, might be going around for another try. Still looks like it is hugging the eastern edge of the forecast cone.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1595 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:27 pm

bella_may wrote:Weather channel talking about RI being a real possibility now


I'm thinking we see a Special Advisory around 11:00 pm CDT, and I'd bump the intensity up to 75 kt now and 100 kt at landfall personally. They may need new warnings to the east as well.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1596 Postby PSUHiker31 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:28 pm

Omg guys I know I'm drunk right now but this is looking like a horrible night and upcoming day for intensification. I'm very worried for my family on the Gulf coast
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1597 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:I know it has been mentioned today quite a bit, but I am still pretty amazed that Nate tracked a fair bit east of the forecast track all day today. This morning, based on the official track, I expected we would be watching Nate cross the NE Yucatan, and he went directly through the center of the Yucatan channel. This is quite a large track error, and rare these days. Not saying the NHC blew it or anything, just amazed that errors like this can still happen with such tight model agreement. Shows we still need to be on guard with track forecasts, even within 24 hours of landfall.


The shift east means that if it continues on the 350 or so heading, it will go right over the Loop Current. I'm also surprised they didn't extend the Hurricane Warning eastward.


Unless it starts going north instead of NW/NNW they probably won't
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1598 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:30 pm

Hurricane now.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1599 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:31 pm

No one should be surprised at the likely RI commencing. NHC has been mentioning this for days, models have hinted at it, environment is favorable and you have extremely warm and deep waters it’s traversing. A category 3 is possible at the rate this is intensifying, and maybe more... this isn’t a “sloppy” storm anymore.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1600 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:31 pm

Hurricane Nate.
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