ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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bella_may
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1641 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:02 pm

smithtim wrote:
bella_may wrote:This is why evacuations on the MS gulf coast should've already been ordered... it is going to be a mess in the morning. Luckily I live a little farther inland and don't have to deal with surge


Yeah I saw on TWC today the governor or mayor kind of joking about yeah we're gonna ride out this cruzin the coast event & get all the revenue from Saturday @@

Roads gonna be not good situation tommorow if this thing booms out and all of a sudden everyone...


We don't have the smartest people in office, I'll just leave it at that.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1642 Postby LeonardRay » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:02 pm

Everyone should be mindful of Harvey going from a depression to a major in 1 day........hopefully the cooler waters farther north will keep this in check.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1643 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:03 pm

hope all northern gulf are safe doing hurr make sure you have good hurr supply because you could be out power for week or more happen here miami not even got eyewall we out power for week or so we have wind here upto 95 miami
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1644 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:05 pm

Hopefully an eye doesn't clear out. I still have flashbacks to when Maria and Harvey's eyes cleared...
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1645 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:05 pm

LeonardRay wrote:Everyone should be mindful of Harvey going from a depression to a major in 1 day........hopefully the cooler waters farther north will keep this in check.


The depth of the warm water won’t be a big factor. The fast forward speed of Nate will keep him over plenty of 28-30C water. With a favorable UL environment and warm water ahead, the only thing to stop the strengthening would be landfall.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1646 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:05 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070402
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 47 20171007
035230 2041N 08630W 8430 01540 0063 +175 +132 229023 024 020 001 03
035300 2040N 08630W 8433 01538 0066 +172 +129 232023 024 022 001 03
035330 2038N 08630W 8429 01544 0064 +173 +142 231025 026 023 001 00
035400 2037N 08630W 8424 01554 0068 +168 +147 230025 026 018 002 05
035430 2036N 08629W 8426 01552 0070 +166 +152 227026 027 /// /// 03
035500 2037N 08627W 8441 01533 0068 +171 +134 225026 027 021 000 03
035530 2039N 08626W 8426 01546 0067 +169 +139 225026 027 021 001 00
035600 2039N 08624W 8423 01551 0068 +165 +159 224026 027 021 001 01
035630 2041N 08622W 8425 01550 0069 +169 +135 226026 027 022 001 03
035700 2041N 08621W 8431 01541 0067 +168 +152 222026 028 024 002 01
035730 2042N 08619W 8426 01548 0069 +173 +115 227025 026 022 000 00
035800 2043N 08618W 8429 01545 0068 +175 +109 226026 026 022 001 00
035830 2044N 08616W 8430 01543 0067 +178 +113 225027 027 022 000 03
035900 2045N 08614W 8429 01545 0068 +175 +114 224027 027 024 000 03
035930 2046N 08613W 8424 01550 0067 +175 +112 224027 027 023 001 00
040000 2047N 08611W 8434 01541 0067 +175 +116 223028 028 023 002 00
040030 2048N 08609W 8428 01547 0067 +175 +112 222028 028 026 000 03
040100 2049N 08608W 8429 01546 0065 +175 +114 222028 029 026 001 00
040130 2050N 08606W 8432 01541 0064 +175 +127 222029 029 028 000 00
040200 2051N 08604W 8428 01546 0066 +173 +139 224030 030 027 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1647 Postby otowntiger » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:05 pm

Blinhart wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Now this is becoming a very serious situation. I just hope he doesn't slow down any, rather have a storm come in with 140 mph winds moving at 30 MPH, then a storm with a 115 MPH winds moving at 10 MPH.

MY question is what would happen if for some reason with this possibly going through RI right now, could he slow down his forward speed and possibly move a little more to the West?
. Uhhh.... no, definitely not!! 140 mph is many times more destructive than 115- it's an exponential increase. Also the faster it moves the further inland damaging winds are spread.


Then you haven't lived through some of the majors. I much rather have a storm that is only going to be hitting one spot for a very short amount of time than constantly for many hours. Look at Harvey and Irma. Irma was moving at a very slow 10 to 15 mph and caused some damage but Harvey didn't move and caused much more damage.

I'm not going to argue the physics of it with you but you can look it up- noaa recently did a study on inland effects of storms based on forward speed. I experienced hurricane Charley ripping thru at 20 mph - the worst part of the storm lasted less than an hour. Subsequently experienced Francis, Jeann and recently Irma. There was far more damage done in those 45 minutes in Charley than what we got in hours of lesser winds by the latter 3 storms.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1648 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:05 pm

I hope this doesn't pull an Opal and possibly intensify into a 4 or even a 5 as that would be worst case and nobody would be prepared for such ugliness
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1649 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:06 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Hopefully an eye doesn't clear out. I still have flashbacks to when Maria and Harvey's eyes cleared...


One will likely be clearing out tomorrow...
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1650 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:08 pm

The approaching front is moving right along.

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1651 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:09 pm

I am going to assume that the CMC landfall to the left of NHC's 24 hr cone into Houma/Morgan city is just not going to happen. it shows a very weak system too.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1652 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:10 pm

Recon noting an eyewall is now nearly complete. Only open to the W now.

000
URNT12 KNHC 070355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/03:16:30Z
B. 22 deg 26 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1323 m
D. 60 kt
E. 084 deg 32 nm
F. 152 deg 89 kt
G. 088 deg 29 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1527 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E05/30/20

N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 22
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 088 / 29 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 3 KT
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1653 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:10 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 85.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2017 0 21.4N 85.7W 988 54
1200UTC 07.10.2017 12 25.5N 87.7W 982 65
0000UTC 08.10.2017 24 28.9N 89.5W 981 54
1200UTC 08.10.2017 36 31.5N 88.2W 988 36
0000UTC 09.10.2017 48 35.5N 85.6W 996 22
1200UTC 09.10.2017 60 40.0N 79.6W 1003 23
0000UTC 10.10.2017 72 42.9N 71.9W 1005 34
1200UTC 10.10.2017 84 44.7N 65.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 11.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

careful because this only has 12 hour points. It may come inland closer to 89.5W
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1654 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:11 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:The approaching front is moving right along.

Image


Not fast enough unfortunately
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1655 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:12 pm

bella_may wrote:00z gfs shifted west just a hair. Not even gonna talk about their intesity track because it's irrelevant


cant really talk about any of the models for 00z that are initialized wrong... maybe the 00z euro might have the correct intensity and position.. being that intensity can play a huge role in track.. for instacne the noname system has clearly broken down faster since the pressure field from nate has grown quite a bit.. that means less of a bend back the nw..... more likely a straight north track..
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1656 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:12 pm

Mobile Bay could be in the thick of this regarding surge.

I'm also seeing a warm spot in the intense convection on satellite, possible precursor to an eye.

Earlier today its fast motion looked like a saving grace because it seemed to limit strengthening but now it's the opposite since it won't weaken over the cooler shelf Waters of the northern gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1657 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:13 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070412
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 48 20171007
040230 2052N 08602W 8429 01544 0066 +171 +156 222030 030 025 001 03
040300 2052N 08600W 8428 01546 0067 +172 +136 223031 032 022 000 00
040330 2053N 08558W 8436 01539 0069 +167 +151 221033 033 023 000 01
040400 2053N 08556W 8430 01545 //// +167 //// 211030 033 023 002 01
040430 2054N 08554W 8426 01546 0065 +171 +164 216030 031 027 001 03
040500 2054N 08552W 8432 01543 0073 +170 //// 212033 033 027 000 01
040530 2054N 08551W 8440 01536 //// +161 //// 210032 034 025 002 01
040600 2055N 08549W 8424 01552 //// +163 //// 209033 033 023 002 05
040630 2055N 08547W 8434 01544 //// +165 //// 210033 034 020 001 05
040700 2056N 08545W 8440 01536 //// +165 //// 212034 035 020 001 05
040730 2056N 08543W 8425 01550 //// +169 //// 212034 035 019 000 05
040800 2057N 08541W 8433 01543 0069 +170 +165 209034 036 017 001 05
040830 2058N 08539W 8428 01552 0069 +171 +167 208032 036 018 000 05
040900 2059N 08538W 8430 01548 //// +167 //// 205032 034 022 001 01
040930 2100N 08536W 8431 01549 //// +166 //// 205035 036 020 001 05
041000 2102N 08535W 8428 01549 //// +168 //// 205035 036 017 002 01
041030 2104N 08535W 8428 01550 0069 +170 +163 203034 036 024 002 03
041100 2106N 08534W 8430 01545 0070 +169 //// 202033 034 028 003 01
041130 2107N 08533W 8430 01545 0080 +172 //// 203034 034 042 015 05
041200 2109N 08533W 8422 01556 0083 +167 //// 206037 038 035 014 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1658 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:13 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon noting an eyewall is now nearly complete. Only open to the W now.

000
URNT12 KNHC 070355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/03:16:30Z
B. 22 deg 26 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1323 m
D. 60 kt
E. 084 deg 32 nm
F. 152 deg 89 kt
G. 088 deg 29 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1527 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W
M. E05/30/20

N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 22
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 088 / 29 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 260 / 3 KT
;


yep and looking at the convective pattern.. next pass might be fully closed and that is when the pressure will likely start to drop like a rock.. Should also start seeing and eye not long after that... next couple hours..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1659 Postby kn4ds » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:14 pm

bella_may wrote:Not fast enough unfortunately


Quite slow enough for my tastes... if it dives quicker, that will send Nate further east... yeah, good for you, not so great for the Florida panhandle, nor those of us in middle Georgia.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1660 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:14 pm

joey wrote:
Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
It's well to the east of the forecast track too it seems.


some ensemble probabilistic guidance I have seen showed this missing the Yucatan, and still coming in near New Orleans


If he slows down to let's say 15 mph would the front catch him and turn him he before landfall thanks


not going to slow. If anything, it will accelerate even more
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