ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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NC George
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2601 Postby NC George » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:47 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Nate is fascinating to me. How is such an inefficiency of mixing winds to the surface possible? My initial guess is dry air, but as was pointed out during Irma’s landfall in Florida, the subsistent quality of dry air would likely result in significantly higher gusts despite meager sustained winds. Radar would would seem to suggest the most intense part of the storm is on land now, but peak winds of 50mph, gusts to 60mph are baffling to me, considering that recon reported fl winds up to 89kt I believe (according to the latest advisory).

Do any of the pro Mets have any insight to this?


I think I have some insight: We have a 50-55 mph tropical storm here with wind speeds augmented by a fast forward movement creating just strong enough winds at one point (due east of the center) to classify this as a hurricane. I'm guessing the winds on the west side are around 25 mph. I think the lack of a southern eyewall at all along with the weak radar presentation corroborates this analysis.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2602 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:50 pm

Through 11:45pm CDT:

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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2603 Postby Jag95 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:53 pm

So far so good. Nothing really to speak of in west Mobile except some rain and some 20 or so mph gusts. Guess I'll find out in about another hour if I'll lose power or not by the looks of the radar.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2604 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:58 pm

Through 11:55pm CDT:

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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2605 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:00 am

Through 11:55pm CDT:

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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2606 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:08 am

Through 12:05am CDT:

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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2607 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:15 am

Mike Theiss recorded a 984 pressure in the eye.



https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/916893665628483584
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2608 Postby angler1986 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:24 am

Jag95 wrote:So far so good. Nothing really to speak of in west Mobile except some rain and some 20 or so mph gusts. Guess I'll find out in about another hour if I'll lose power or not by the looks of the radar.


I'm over in Semmes, are you further East, or West than me? It's been about the same as you described here (as you would imagine haha).
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2609 Postby bella_may » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:25 am

Pascagoula thought they were out of it but winds have started to get strong again
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2610 Postby Bamagirl2408 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:27 am

Jag95 wrote:So far so good. Nothing really to speak of in west Mobile except some rain and some 20 or so mph gusts. Guess I'll find out in about another hour if I'll lose power or not by the looks of the radar.


Im here too. Few squalls. Power good. I havent seen a limb fall on my street.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2611 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:29 am

Recon over. Through 12:15pm CDT.

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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2612 Postby KC7NEC » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:37 am

...HURRICANE NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...
National Weather Service radar data and surface observations indicate that Hurricane Nate has made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, around 1230 AM CDT with maximum winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...30.4N 89.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2613 Postby angler1986 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:37 am

JUST had a power surge here in Semmes/West Mobile. First I've seen.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2614 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:40 am

NC George wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Nate is fascinating to me. How is such an inefficiency of mixing winds to the surface possible? My initial guess is dry air, but as was pointed out during Irma’s landfall in Florida, the subsistent quality of dry air would likely result in significantly higher gusts despite meager sustained winds. Radar would would seem to suggest the most intense part of the storm is on land now, but peak winds of 50mph, gusts to 60mph are baffling to me, considering that recon reported fl winds up to 89kt I believe (according to the latest advisory).

Do any of the pro Mets have any insight to this?


I think I have some insight: We have a 50-55 mph tropical storm here with wind speeds augmented by a fast forward movement creating just strong enough winds at one point (due east of the center) to classify this as a hurricane. I'm guessing the winds on the west side are around 25 mph. I think the lack of a southern eyewall at all along with the weak radar presentation corroborates this analysis.


I don’t think that’s it. If this were a 50mph storm being augmented by 20mph forward speed, we would probably be observing more reports of winds in the 60mph+ range. It also doesn’t account for the flight level winds earlier today that supported a 90mph intensity. If we were talking about a storm peaking at 75mph, this might hold some water, but I’m skeptical considering that recon found FL winds supporting a borderline 1/2 hurricane followed by winds reports at the coast only a couple hours later that support at most a 60mph landfall intensity. While the structure has never been great in this storm, there really wasn’t a whole lot of degradation between those two points in time, and certainly not enough to justify a 40% decrease in intensity

Edit for further thought: could it have been ingestion of continental dry air at the surface disrupting the core, and thus loosening the pressure gradient? The wind field was already rather spread-out as it was, and this loosening of the gradient may explain the weak winds despite Nate having a central pressure consistent with an 85mph hurricane
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2615 Postby smw1981 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:51 am

I am in Mobile on Dog River and it has been pretty gusty. Large limbs have been hitting the house for awhile now but one was just really loud and woke up both me and another person here. A few minutes later we heard the transformer blow and the power went out, and then 10 or so minutes later we heard a tree fall (or possibly a very large limb but I'm pretty sure it was a tree) somewhere around them. It now seems even more gusty but it's not raining too bad right now..
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2616 Postby NC George » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:57 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:I don’t think that’s it. If this were a 50mph storm being augmented by 20mph forward speed, we would probably be observing more reports of winds in the 60mph+ range. It also doesn’t account for the flight level winds earlier today that supported a 90mph intensity. If we were talking about a storm peaking at 75mph, this might hold some water, but I’m skeptical considering that recon found FL winds supporting a borderline 1/2 hurricane followed by winds reports at the coast only a couple hours later that support at most a 60mph landfall intensity. While the structure has never been great in this storm, there really wasn’t a whole lot of degradation between those two points in time, and certainly not enough to justify a 40% decrease in intensity

Edit for further thought: could it have been ingestion of continental dry air at the surface disrupting the core, and thus loosening the pressure gradient? The wind field was already rather spread-out as it was, and this loosening of the gradient may explain the weak winds despite Nate having a central pressure consistent with an 85mph hurricane


I think we'll get those winds right about now, as the eastern edge makes landfall at the Mississippi/Alabama border.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2617 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:12 am

About the new tornado watch for ALL of south Alabama until 10 AM. These bands are making zero progress Eastward but seem to be moving just North over the same areas. I plan on going to bed in a couple of hours and I am comatose when I sleep. Does anybody really see these bands making it into the SE corner of AL. We are not in the slight risk area on the overnight and barely in it on the Sunday outlook. Looks like this watch was a just in case thing to me.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2618 Postby Jag95 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:37 am

Winds definitely picked up over the last hour or so. Probably some good 55+ gusts. Power went off a couple of times but came back on surprisingly. I guess this is the worst of it for us and should be moving out pretty soon.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2620 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:05 am

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