ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

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ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:30 am

In the northeastern Atlantic.

91L INVEST 171007 0600 32.7N 38.5W ATL 30 1010


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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:48 am

Discussion was here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119293
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:49 am

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:51 pm

Looking fairly decent as the sun sets. Organized circulation is apparent, so it's probably not long until we still this designated as a subtropical cyclone.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby bob rulz » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:23 pm

I'm not the most experienced when it comes to subtropical, but I feel like I've seen worse-looking storms designated
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:50 pm

And one of the most fascinating hurricane seasons in memory continues. If this develops and threatens the Iberian Peninsula it will be a huge story regardless of the storms strength and real impact.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:37 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:09 pm

Convection beginning to increase near the center. If it can have a good DMAX, should be ready for classification by tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:23 pm

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:27 pm

BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:21 pm

Convection building over the center....

Expect subtropical advisories soon...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:20 pm

tolakram wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby Ryxn » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:28 pm

BZSTORM wrote:
tolakram wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks


A models thread has already been created but for future's notice, go to "Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC" page then click "New Topic *" which is at the top-left corner of the forum board.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby Krit-tonkla » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:00 pm

The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:19 pm

Tonight's ASCAT passes showed a well-defined circulation with an uncontaminated vector of 35 kt winds. It just needs to develop more convection and we should have Ophelia sometime tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:21 pm

Krit-tonkla wrote:The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,


Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:26 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Krit-tonkla wrote:The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,


Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?


Based on satellite it looks like they were going to upgrade but reconsidered as the convection decreased after.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:43 am

Convection is increasing again, and somewhat deeper than earlier, so it may be classifiable now. The ASCAT pass at 0:24 UTC showed some unflagged 35-40 kt vectors and a separated, compact center, so it possible a weak tropical storm now.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:16 am

Fresh ASCAT, it shows some 35+ kt vectors north of the center which are not unflagged.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:47 am

If this had persistent convection around its center it would have been Ophelia.
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