ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3168
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:30 am

In the northeastern Atlantic.

91L INVEST 171007 0600 32.7N 38.5W ATL 30 1010


Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:48 am

Discussion was here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119293
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2635
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:49 am

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles
southwest of the Azores. This system is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 726
Age: 17
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: Oak Hill, TX (Southwest Austin)
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:51 pm

Looking fairly decent as the sun sets. Organized circulation is apparent, so it's probably not long until we still this designated as a subtropical cyclone.

Image
1 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service/RSMC.
- Stop by and chat on Storm2K's IRC channel (#storm2k on irc.esper.net, or click here)

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1424
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby bob rulz » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:23 pm

I'm not the most experienced when it comes to subtropical, but I feel like I've seen worse-looking storms designated
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1536
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:50 pm

And one of the most fascinating hurricane seasons in memory continues. If this develops and threatens the Iberian Peninsula it will be a huge story regardless of the storms strength and real impact.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:37 pm

1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

CyclonicFury
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:09 pm

Convection beginning to increase near the center. If it can have a good DMAX, should be ready for classification by tomorrow morning.
0 likes   
My forecasts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

BZSTORM
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 319
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:47 pm
Location: Placencia, Belize

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:23 pm

Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:27 pm

BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:21 pm

Convection building over the center....

Expect subtropical advisories soon...
0 likes   

BZSTORM
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 319
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:47 pm
Location: Placencia, Belize

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:20 pm

tolakram wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks
1 likes   

User avatar
SuperMarioBros99thx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am
Location: Pelaihari, South Kalimantan
Contact:

ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#13 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:23 pm

Created thread. GEM wants to make this hurricane and sends it to around Western Europe.
1 likes   
I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

User avatar
Ryxn
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby Ryxn » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:28 pm

BZSTORM wrote:
tolakram wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:Is there a model thread for this yet or waiting till its named as depression or storm?


No model thread but you can make one. ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

don't wish to sound dumb but I don't actually know how to start a new thread. It's Ok will wait for someone to create one so I can follow the info thanks


A models thread has already been created but for future's notice, go to "Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC" page then click "New Topic *" which is at the top-left corner of the forum board.
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:28 pm

Yes, but the gfs 18z certainly doens't. It kills it off after 100 hours more or less.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:37 pm

GFS and Euro also kill it quickly.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Krit-tonkla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:28 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Krit-tonkla » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:00 pm

The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
0 likes   
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist. Any posts I made, unless copied from some official agency, are only my opinion and is unofficial and often exaggerated. Please refer to your official RSMC for official products and warnings.

CyclonicFury
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:19 pm

Tonight's ASCAT passes showed a well-defined circulation with an uncontaminated vector of 35 kt winds. It just needs to develop more convection and we should have Ophelia sometime tomorrow.
0 likes   
My forecasts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1166
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:21 pm

Krit-tonkla wrote:The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,


Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3392
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:26 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Krit-tonkla wrote:The best track for 00z interestingly lists this as a TD:

AL, 91, 2017100800, , BEST, 0, 313N, 395W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,


Strange, there isn't any advisories yet. An error?


Based on satellite it looks like they were going to upgrade but reconsidered as the convection decreased after.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests