ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:51 am

I think ADT needs to be thrown out right now as it is obviously too high. This is driving the SATCON mean up probably too high too. However, microwave intensity estimates (AMSU, ATMS, SSMIS) are all hanging out around 60 kt right now. That may be a good compromise intensity between subjective Dvorak and the possibly low-biased ASCAT data.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:52 am

ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:16 am

Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most


No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby fwbbreeze » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:38 am

great structure this morning...though lacking deep convection.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:46 am

There is the resolution issue regarding ASCAT, but yeah in the absence of Recon, I would have only gone 50-55 kt (more weight on ASCAT despite the resolution issue). Perhaps the winds aren't reaching the surface over the cooler water.

If only money were unlimited and we could send Recon planes to the Azores to use as a base.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:47 am

NHC goes with 60 kt, which is appears similar to my line of thinking.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.

Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.

Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#107 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:17 am

Looks like a hurricane to me. Will probably be upgraded to one later today.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#108 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:20 am

I knew that was Lix after reading the first sentence. :lol:
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#109 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:27 am

Wonder how far a drone can be maneuvered to invest?
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#110 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:24 am

Buck wrote:
Alyono wrote:ASCAT says this is still 40 kts

NHC needs to absolutely chuck the Dvorak estimates for this storm and give them the zero weight they deserve. This is a 40-45 kt TS at most


No doubt something is off, but I can't imagine only 40-45kt... best looking 40-45kt TS I've ever seen.


I'm surprised as well, but it is what it is
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#111 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:37 pm

Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#112 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:42 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Why is NHC still handling this when it's going away from North and Central America? Isn't there a Euro counterpart? Is is just by agreement or contract?

The NHC is the defacto agency for the entire Atlantic for hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:43 pm

Take two.

AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 60, 50, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 17, 2017101118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 362W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1017, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#114 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:43 pm

Time for the new ASCAT to ruin the mood once again. :lol:
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#115 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:01 pm

If only recon could fly all the way out there. :P
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#116 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:42 pm

Kazmit wrote:If only recon could fly all the way out there. :P


If only they could fly from Portugal. :)
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#117 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:51 pm

Cimss map changed to hurricane..
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#118 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:35 pm

Ophelia is now the 10th consecutive hurricane of the season. Wow...


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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#119 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#120 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:16 pm

2017 is now tied with 1878, 1886, and 1893 for the most consecutive hurricanes on record. The most recent tropical storm formed on July 31st (Emily).
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