ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Discussion

#41 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:48 am

Well, most of the guidance and now the NHC official forecast does indeed make this our tenth straight hurricane. That's just remarkable.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Discussion

#42 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:11 am

galaxy401 wrote:Is this storm going to behave similar to Nadine? Seems like it's going to meander in the NE Atlantic for awhile.



I'd be OK with that.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Discussion

#43 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:14 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Is this storm going to behave similar to Nadine? Seems like it's going to meander in the NE Atlantic for awhile.



I'd be OK with that.

Hey, more ACE points for us. :wink:
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:41 pm

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:45 pm

What are the chances this could become a major hurricane? Has there ever been one that far north and east?
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#46 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances this could become a major hurricane? Has there ever been one that far north and east?

Pretty unlikely due to marginal sea surface temperatures. Cold upper level temperatures are helping to offset that (<-60ºC at 200 mb), but not enough for more than a lower end hurricane in my opinion.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:46 pm

I think a 3 is unlikely, but not impossible.

Alex nearly became a 2 in January when the waters are a good bit colder. This is only going to be over 25C waters through 5-6 days. Alex reached 80 kts over sub 20C waters
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:52 pm

It caught my eye that convection is below -80C which is really impressive for the NE Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:30 pm

The latest discussion mentions wind shear as being a major factor here. If it drops off lower than expected, Ophelia could get much stronger than forecast.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby NotSparta » Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:04 pm

Alyono wrote:I think a 3 is unlikely, but not impossible.

Alex nearly became a 2 in January when the waters are a good bit colder. This is only going to be over 25C waters through 5-6 days. Alex reached 80 kts over sub 20C waters


And the 200mb temperatures are not much warmer than Alex had.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It caught my eye that convection is below -80C which is really impressive for the NE Atlantic.

I'm not seeing convection anywhere close to -80ºC. The coldest tops only appear to be occasionally clipping into the B shade on BD imagery. For reference, CDG is -81ºC, so that's still several color shades off. Convection is pretty consistent with the 200 mb temps considering that's about where the tropopause is there. That is considerably lower than in the tropics.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#52 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:13 pm

may be moving too slowly. Major upwelling could occur if this does not move. Non coupled models cannot pick up on this
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:36 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 38.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:22 am

cat 3 becoming a legit possibility this morning
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby Krit-tonkla » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:57 am

Still 50 mph. Likely because of the recent ASCAT.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 101453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 38.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:58 am

I take back my cat 3 possible

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bds110.png

this does not even show any TS winds. Dvorak horribly over estimating this
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:01 am

I don't get the whole south then east bit. But then I don't really need to.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:04 am

Alyono wrote: Dvorak horribly over estimating this



Makes you wish they had a way to take direct sample of these distant systems if only to better understand and build documentation. Too far out for normal recon and no land/people threatened to justify the cost.

Any ships in the area?
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:39 am

The 12z SAB analysis classified this using an eye pattern which is laughable. In comparison, CIMSS-ADT has it at T2.3/33kt maybe more accurate in this case.

TXNT23 KNES 101213
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 10/1145Z

C. 31.6N

D. 38.5W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW AND
EMBEDDED IN OW FOR A DT=4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=3.0 PT=3.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:57 am

Probably one of the poorer Dvorak fixes I've seen in the Atlantic.
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