ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:30 pm

The latest discussion mentions wind shear as being a major factor here. If it drops off lower than expected, Ophelia could get much stronger than forecast.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#62 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That Euro looks like a fully tropical hurricane into Europe - that would be unprecedented!

Well Grace did landfall in Ireland in 2009 so it's not impossible
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby NotSparta » Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:04 pm

Alyono wrote:I think a 3 is unlikely, but not impossible.

Alex nearly became a 2 in January when the waters are a good bit colder. This is only going to be over 25C waters through 5-6 days. Alex reached 80 kts over sub 20C waters


And the 200mb temperatures are not much warmer than Alex had.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#64 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:30 pm

18Z GFS does strange things: brings it down to 968mb southwest of the Azores, then weakens it as it moves east and re-intensifies it to 978mb (still tropical) between the Azores and mainland Portugal. Landfall in NW Portugal as a tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It caught my eye that convection is below -80C which is really impressive for the NE Atlantic.

I'm not seeing convection anywhere close to -80ºC. The coldest tops only appear to be occasionally clipping into the B shade on BD imagery. For reference, CDG is -81ºC, so that's still several color shades off. Convection is pretty consistent with the 200 mb temps considering that's about where the tropopause is there. That is considerably lower than in the tropics.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:13 pm

may be moving too slowly. Major upwelling could occur if this does not move. Non coupled models cannot pick up on this
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#67 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:50 am

The 00Z GFS shows landfall in extreme northwest Spain as a strong tropical storm.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:36 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 38.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#69 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:22 am

cat 3 becoming a legit possibility this morning
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby Krit-tonkla » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:57 am

Still 50 mph. Likely because of the recent ASCAT.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 101453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 38.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:58 am

I take back my cat 3 possible

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bds110.png

this does not even show any TS winds. Dvorak horribly over estimating this
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:01 am

I don't get the whole south then east bit. But then I don't really need to.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#73 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:04 am

Alyono wrote: Dvorak horribly over estimating this



Makes you wish they had a way to take direct sample of these distant systems if only to better understand and build documentation. Too far out for normal recon and no land/people threatened to justify the cost.

Any ships in the area?
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:39 am

The 12z SAB analysis classified this using an eye pattern which is laughable. In comparison, CIMSS-ADT has it at T2.3/33kt maybe more accurate in this case.

TXNT23 KNES 101213
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 10/1145Z

C. 31.6N

D. 38.5W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW AND
EMBEDDED IN OW FOR A DT=4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=3.0 PT=3.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#75 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:57 am

Probably one of the poorer Dvorak fixes I've seen in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#76 Postby NotSparta » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:02 am

RL3AO wrote:Probably one of the poorer Dvorak fixes I've seen in the Atlantic.


The dry slot around the center is confusing Dvorak and making estimates too high I guess
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:10 am

RL3AO wrote:Probably one of the poorer Dvorak fixes I've seen in the Atlantic.


just ran an ADT and came up with a CI of 2.2
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#78 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:45 am

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2017 0 31.6N 38.4W 996 43
0000UTC 11.10.2017 12 30.8N 37.3W 990 48
1200UTC 11.10.2017 24 30.4N 36.3W 985 49
0000UTC 12.10.2017 36 30.7N 35.9W 984 47
1200UTC 12.10.2017 48 31.1N 35.9W 985 48
0000UTC 13.10.2017 60 31.6N 35.0W 984 53
1200UTC 13.10.2017 72 32.5N 33.3W 980 58
0000UTC 14.10.2017 84 33.7N 30.4W 969 67
1200UTC 14.10.2017 96 35.3N 26.4W 964 71
0000UTC 15.10.2017 108 37.2N 22.0W 963 70
1200UTC 15.10.2017 120 41.6N 16.6W 961 78
0000UTC 16.10.2017 132 48.0N 12.8W 957 81
1200UTC 16.10.2017 144 53.2N 7.9W 964 55
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#79 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:30 pm

12Z EC has a narrow miss of northern Spain at 980mb. Still looks semi tropical on the slp/850mb wind fields
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:34 pm

despite improved organization, SSD is now saying a Dvorak of 3.0/4.0

My question is, how does this get a LOWER data T number than 6 hours ago?
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