ATL: OPHELIA - Models

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ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#1 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:23 pm

Created thread. GEM wants to make this hurricane and sends it to around Western Europe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:28 pm

Yes, but the gfs 18z certainly doens't. It kills it off after 100 hours more or less.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:37 pm

GFS and Euro also kill it quickly.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:29 am

Surpisingly the HWRF and HMON became very bullish and now both strengthen the cyclone into a hurricane in the second part of the next week.

Maybe the GEM will be right as consistently shows this since 2 days?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:25 pm

Stranger things have happened...remember Grace 2009, or Vince 2005?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:17 pm

The Euro and GFS no longer kill this quickly. The Euro actually strengthens it between 48 and 96 hours, and at 96 hours it shows 91L down to 1006 mb. The GFS is also trending stronger in the medium range. I think 91L has more time to develop than indicated in the NHC's TWOs, conditions don't really appear to change much based on the latest SHIPS guidance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby Dean_175 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:43 am

Yes^^

The very latest GFS run (00Z 10-09) has it sticking around even longer than the last. Showing a path that would be very interesting (if it verifies)- GFS moves it in a full and slow circle, towards the SE , and then slowly to the NW again. That would depend on what happens with it's interaction with a (model) frontal system that would influence that region of the Atlantic late in the week---the old GFS run has it possibly sheared apart and degenerating into an open trough, the new run has it interacting with it- but then pushed south again by the Azores high and re-intensifying.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Models

#8 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:25 am

The UKMO and the ICON also much stronger than previousily. The 00Z ICON sent it to SE as a hurricane (well west of the Canary Islands), and the fresh 06Z run is similar (but it extends only for 120 hours, and at 120 hours puts the cyclone a bit norther than the earlier run at the same time).

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#9 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:12 pm

The 12Z ICON brings Ophelia very close to Madeira (the wind is at 850 hPa).

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#10 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:15 pm

12z GFS

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#11 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:28 pm

12Z Euro

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:53 pm

That Euro looks like a fully tropical hurricane into Europe - that would be unprecedented!
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That Euro looks like a fully tropical hurricane into Europe - that would be unprecedented!

Well Grace did landfall in Ireland in 2009 so it's not impossible
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:30 pm

18Z GFS does strange things: brings it down to 968mb southwest of the Azores, then weakens it as it moves east and re-intensifies it to 978mb (still tropical) between the Azores and mainland Portugal. Landfall in NW Portugal as a tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#15 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:50 am

The 00Z GFS shows landfall in extreme northwest Spain as a strong tropical storm.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#16 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:45 am

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2017 0 31.6N 38.4W 996 43
0000UTC 11.10.2017 12 30.8N 37.3W 990 48
1200UTC 11.10.2017 24 30.4N 36.3W 985 49
0000UTC 12.10.2017 36 30.7N 35.9W 984 47
1200UTC 12.10.2017 48 31.1N 35.9W 985 48
0000UTC 13.10.2017 60 31.6N 35.0W 984 53
1200UTC 13.10.2017 72 32.5N 33.3W 980 58
0000UTC 14.10.2017 84 33.7N 30.4W 969 67
1200UTC 14.10.2017 96 35.3N 26.4W 964 71
0000UTC 15.10.2017 108 37.2N 22.0W 963 70
1200UTC 15.10.2017 120 41.6N 16.6W 961 78
0000UTC 16.10.2017 132 48.0N 12.8W 957 81
1200UTC 16.10.2017 144 53.2N 7.9W 964 55
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#17 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:30 pm

12Z EC has a narrow miss of northern Spain at 980mb. Still looks semi tropical on the slp/850mb wind fields
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#18 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:46 pm

EC has landfall around 0Z on the 17th on the southern coast of Ireland. Still has a very tight SLP core and a fairly tropical wind core. Doesn't seem to fully transition until after landfall
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#19 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:57 pm

EPS distribution suggests a threat to England, Scotland, Portgual, and Spain.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#20 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:41 pm

Interesting presentation from Ophelia on the 12z ECM, it still looks pretty tropical west of Portugal, SSTs are low (20-21C) but probably still do-able in a low upper set-up environment and the estimated radar still has a distinct eye and eyewall feature. This then opens up and it looks like it restrengthens as a transitioning storm. 850hpa temps at core are 21C at this point, impressively high for the time of year.

By Sunday evening its extra-tropical looking as it goes into Ireland, still with a weak warm core left over and still has a good presentation. ECM has 90mph gusts into the southern coast of Ireland.
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