ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Shell Mound]

If anything, the 12Z GFS is particularly disconcerting in regard to intensity. Note that, owing to convective feedback, the run displays an eastward bias. This would tend to place the TC under stronger vertical wind shear than may actually be present. A more westward track, while more plausible, would also put the TC more directly under the cutoff low, which would tend to promote lower shear, enabling the system to become vertically stacked. So the GFS may actually be underestimating the potential intensity of Alberto-to-be. This could mean a somewhat higher ceiling for intensity—perhaps 65 to 75 knots instead of 50 to 60 knots.

Again, if this logic were to verify, we could be looking at the earliest hurricane to hit the lower forty-eight states in the calendar year. Stay tuned.

[Blow_Hard]

BIg shifts today in CMC and GFS west!!! models starting to handle the pattern and ridge better...could we see more shift west who knows???

That would be great news for us here in the Panhandle. I don't wish a storm on anyone but if this is the beginning of a trend making it more of a WGOM or NWGOM issue and less of a threat for the EGOM, I for one will be happy....lots of outside plans for this weekend. Again, no offense to WGOM peeps but to potential soon-to-be Alberto, I say "Go West young man"...

[Evil Jeremy]

BIg shifts today in CMC and GFS west!!! models starting to handle the pattern and ridge better...could we see more shift west who knows???

That would be great news for us here in the Panhandle. I don't wish a storm on anyone but if this is the beginning of a trend making it more of a WGOM or NWGOM issue and less of a threat for the EGOM, I for one will be happy....lots of outside plans for this weekend. Again, no offense to WGOM peeps but to potential soon-to-be Alberto, I say "Go West young man"...

Don't relax in the Panhandle. This storm will be lopsided to the east. You're looking at massive rains, even if Alberto goest West of you by over a hundred miles.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

BIg shifts today in CMC and GFS west!!! models starting to handle the pattern and ridge better...could we see more shift west who knows???

That would be great news for us here in the Panhandle. I don't wish a storm on anyone but if this is the beginning of a trend making it more of a WGOM or NWGOM issue and less of a threat for the EGOM, I for one will be happy....lots of outside plans for this weekend. Again, no offense to WGOM peeps but to potential soon-to-be Alberto, I say "Go West young man"...

Keep in mind that this storm will very likely be east sided due to wind shear, with the strongest winds removed to the east of the circulation.

[Dean4Storms]

The highest winds in that 12z GFS run was about 100 miles south of P'Cola in gusts to 60kts. Certainly not hurricane strength but a moderate TS.

[chris_fit]

Keep in mind that this storm will very likely be west sided due to wind shear, with the strongest winds removed to the west of the circulation.

East

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Keep in mind that this storm will very likely be west sided due to wind shear, with the strongest winds removed to the west of the circulation.

East

I am dumb. Corrected.

[Aric Dunn]

CMC makes it a hurricane too..

[Dean4Storms]

CMC makes it a hurricane too..

GFS did not make it a hurricane, I checked the winds with it, none over 60kts and those were gusts.

[Aric Dunn]

CMC makes it a hurricane too..

GFS did not make it a hurricane, I checked the winds with it, none over 60kts and those were gusts.

oh I must have been looking at the wrong thing.

oh wait duh the gfs color scale is different the other models.

[Dean4Storms]

CMC makes it a hurricane too..

Highest winds in the GEM were around 50kts. Not a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET shifts east and is weaker:

[boca]

UKMET is an unlikely outlier with 90L.

[cycloneye]

My guess for the next STWO is 50%-90%.

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess for the next STWO is 50%-90%.

I'm more curious about where they point the elongated circle

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-90%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF makes it a 70kt hurricane so far.. lol

[Bocadude85]

UKMET is an unlikely outlier with 90L.

Not that I am buying into the UKMET solution, but it is one of the better performing models.

[BYG Jacob]

There's no way that llc doesn't get sucked under the convection soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

https://i.imgur.com/FDdzvIv.png

Top half of the circle is identical, and the bottom half has been slightly nudged slightly to the east. I was expecting a more westward adjustment.