ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[NotSparta]

70/90

[northjaxpro]

There's no way that llc doesn't get sucked under the convection soon.

Yes, no question I agree. I definitely see a LLC reformation coming rather soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

There's no way that llc doesn't get sucked under the convection soon.

Yes, no question I agree. I definitely see a LLC reformation coming rather soon.

What would the track implication be, if any?

[Hurricane Andrew]

*sigh*

Guess we're back to that time of year.

I used to enjoy tracking these things...

[Aric Dunn]

There's no way that llc doesn't get sucked under the convection soon.

Yes, no question I agree. I definitely see a LLC reformation coming rather soon.

not without continued convection.. unfortunately its more pulsating type because of the shear. once the shear direction changes to sw to ssw likely will see reformations. right now the convection is just spitting our vorts every pulse because the convection is not lasting long enough.

[BYG Jacob]

There's no way that llc doesn't get sucked under the convection soon.

Yes, no question I agree. I definitely see a LLC reformation coming rather soon.

What would the track implication be, if any?

How do I make the shrug emoji?

[jdjaguar]

*sigh*

Guess we're back to that time of year.

I used to enjoy tracking these things...

Same here. That evolved into preparedness planning after I had kids and bought a house near the coast.

That has evolved into hurricane fatigue, after back to back storm hits in 2016/17.

[txwatcher91]

HWRF has a 966mb cane (65.7kts at hour 87) that is bombing at landfall...

[Dean4Storms]

Pressure is rising at the buoy in the NW Carib..it did record some wind gusts just over 30kts this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[ROCK]

HWRF has a 966mb cane (65.7kts at hour 87) that is bombing at landfall...

LOL when does it not over due intensity

[Aric Dunn]

There are 3 distinct vorts. the one just offshore that has developed with little convection hold the best shot for the moment until it too rotates overland .. but it is the most defined.
the other one is pretty clear over land to the west as it slowly weakens and rotates south.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html full zoom..

[PSUHiker31]

This UKMET run is utter garbage with the initialization and path.

[blp]

12Z UKMET shifts east and is weaker:

[]https://i.imgur.com/3EVsqkc.gif[/img]

The Ukie has earned its stripes in the past as a trend setter. I remember with IRMA it was one of the first to show a more westerly move toward the gulf. I did not verify but it started moving the other models in a trend in that direction. Interesting to see what happens.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow the GEFS Ensemble Mean went much further west into Central LA Coast with some members clear to TX.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow the GEFS Ensemble Mean went much further west into Central LA Coast with some members clear to TX.

Yep, not at all surprising given the lack of a longwave trough anytime soon. ridging builds back quite nicely.

[CrazyC83]

12Z UKMET shifts east and is weaker:

[]https://i.imgur.com/3EVsqkc.gif[/img]

The Ukie has earned its stripes in the past as a trend setter. I remember with IRMA it was one of the first to show a more westerly move toward the gulf. I did not verify but it started moving the other models in a trend in that direction. Interesting to see what happens.

It also was the first to capture Matthew going into Florida. Although with a weak vortex it is not as well tested...

[blp]

Euro looks further East at 48hrs. First time I see the vorticity come close to the tip of Cuba.

[ROCK]

That’s the one I am looking at also..

[gatorcane]

Euro looks further East at 48hrs. First time I see the voracity come close to the tip of Cuba.

Euro did shift east this run but also stronger:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

UKMET is an unlikely outlier with 90L.

Not that I am buying into the UKMET solution, but it is one of the better performing models.

nailed irma's path over florida if i remember right