ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[gulf701]

NWS Tallahassee discussion today 5/23/18

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term is expected to be wet with the focus on a tropical
disturbance and rainfall amounts. Models are still in disagreement
with the track of a tropical disturbance that is currently in the
Caribbean with guidance spanning the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico as the disturbance moves northward. NHC has given the area
a 50% chance of development in the next five days. Regardless of
if the system does develop though or it`s exact track, significant
rainfall amounts are expected with 7 day rainfall totals of 3-7
inches (locally higher amounts possible). Given these amounts,
will need to closely monitor the long term for flooding. PoPs
remain high through the long term (chance and likely categories)
with no dry days in the forecast. Expect highs in the 80s with
lows in the 70s.

Sure looks like the Panhandle has the potential to get wet from the early model tracks. Inland has been getting more rain than the coast. Will keep a close eye on the system for potential rain and TS development.

[fwbbreeze]

Hey weather peeps!! Great to be back for another season or storm tracking. Check out this twitter link for some great information regarding the genesis of our system this weekend. Not sure how much of the tweet thread will post, but go to his page for the whole dialogue.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/999069343668359168

[PSUHiker31]

The satellite presentation is certainly looking much improved today. It will be interesting to see how organized it gets after tonight's diurnal max

[stormlover2013]

I am really interested in the EURO run coming up

[Dean4Storms]

I see no clear reason why this Low would dissipate as it tracks over the Yuc. Peninsula, heck most times we have tracked an organizing Low moving NW over the Yuc. it has held steady or deepened.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the MLC and LLC are not colocated but that was to be expected but I have to wonder if a new center may develop under the MLC as these types of systems like to do which would give the GFS some credence

[gatorcane]

I am really interested in the EURO run coming up

Looks like the Euro is coming in more organized through 72 hours than what the 00Z run showed:

[MississippiWx]

Definitely a bit more organization occurring this afternoon. Shear is obviously affecting 90L, but thunderstorms are firing much closer to the apparent center today.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro Definitely more organized and less broad.

[BobHarlem]

No graphic, but the euro shifted east, slower, and about the same strength as before. It appears to be Alabama this time.

edit: ha, never mind straight west. I think all the models are on crack on this one.

[stormlover2013]

High pressure then pushes it west

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=96

[boca]

I’m thinking 90L gets more consolidated and than South Florida will have a good weather weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah not all too surprised there. I was wondering when the models would respond to the upstream trough pushing the ridging east into the plains. ICON did at 12z. Euro was hinting at it a couple days ago. lets see if this pans out. will all depend on placement of trough in the gulf..

[FLpanhandle91]

Euro through 120 hours has 90L making hard left turn to the west just before 28ºN. due to what looks like slightly stronger riding north of it.

[SFLcane]

IF the latest EURO pans out SFL might get some scattered showers but no heavy rainfall event here. Tricky forecast for sure trying to pinpoint who will see it.

[stormreader]

I am really interested in the EURO run coming up

Looks like the Euro is coming in more organized through 72 hours than what the 00Z run showed:

And the whole gyre has migrated a little further west than was anticipated a couple of days ago. So lets see if it remains on the west end of the model guidance.

[Bocadude85]

I’m thinking 90L gets more consolidated and than South Florida will have a good weather weekend.

I hope so, I am tired of the rain.

[Ivanhater]

Euro would be insane rain for the north central gulf coast...someone post amounts when you can

[AtlanticWind]

I’m thinking 90L gets more consolidated and than South Florida will have a good weather weekend.

Unlikely, this will be a right handed system