ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/999105409746161665

[caneman]

18z GFS a bit stronger through SFL...

well if that is what you call that... it is pretty much not helpful except telling us it thinks 90l will be sheared lol

Fun fact: Not one single EPS ensemble member sends 90L into the Florida Peninsula. Not one.

Where a center goes at this point is irrelevant in my mind. The rain totals since the 13th are already way up there
I saw one the main roads I travel flooded within an hour or two of extreme tropical downpour. Many rivers are already high. Reminds me exactly of Debby

[floridasun78]

look all rain tooo east of low maybe forming if that track nnw or ne that pull that all rain over fl

[N2FSU]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/999105409746161665

So you’re saying there’s...

[floridasun78]

starring look south fl will have highest amount rain and rest of state what their forecasting with 90l

[tailgater]

MId and upper levels are becoming less dry around the system. Could see more convection build overnight.

yep, and the southern GOM showing up pretty on Mimic TPW

[NDG]

I'm starting to really doubt the GFS with its crazy solutions and start leaning towards the Euro's less crazy solutions

[Aric Dunn]

MId and upper levels are becoming less dry around the system. Could see more convection build overnight.

yep, and the southern GOM showing up pretty on Mimic TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

just in case anyone missed it. there is a new and improved TPW> >> http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

you can check multiple layers. its is very helpful

[CyclonicFury]

00z ICON shows something very strange. It develops 90L into a TS, but it turns to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and begins to weaken.

[stormlover2013]

High pressure builds...

[MississippiWx]

00z ICON shows something very strange. It develops 90L into a TS, but it turns to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and begins to weaken.

There isn’t much of an escape route. Ridge to the west, north, and east as a trough lifts out to the north. It’s a possibility.

[Aric Dunn]

00z ICON shows something very strange. It develops 90L into a TS, but it turns to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and begins to weaken.

that is the second run in a row for ICON. the EURO also have the steering collapse and then ridging building. though the euro is faster so it happens over land. ICON I am not sure about the intensity though.

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS is pretty much identical out to 36 hours compared to 18z

[Dylan]

I'm starting to really doubt the GFS with its crazy solutions and start leaning towards the Euro's less crazy solutions

Agreed. The GFS wants to develop satellite vorticities out of thin air around the main gyre. Even if it did, it would more than likely pin-wheel around the main low in a similar fashion to Cindy last year. The EPS ensembles back the operational ECMWF’s solution of a north gulf coast landfall, and and it’s well known the EPS are much better equipped to handle tropical cyclones compared to the GEFS, which is also west of its operational/deterministic companion.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS at 78 hours .. already splitting off into two vorticities.. blah... next.

[Dylan]

GFS at 78 hours .. already splitting off into two vorticities.. blah... next.

It’s going to be a loooonnnnnnnngggggggg hurricane season if the MU continues to perform this way!

[Aric Dunn]

GFS at 78 hours .. already splitting off into two vorticities.. blah... next.

It’s going to be a loooonnnnnnnngggggggg hurricane season if the MU continues to perform this way!

yes yes indeed.. and I am OCD and cant go to sleep until all the outputs are finished .. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Convection finally getting going in association with the broad circ. environment has moistened... of course shear is high just to the north so convection is going to be tough to stay attached but pulses of deep convection can help get a well-defined circ in place for the models to latch onto.

[Dylan]

GFS at 78 hours .. already splitting off into two vorticities.. blah... next.

It’s going to be a loooonnnnnnnngggggggg hurricane season if the MU continues to perform this way!

yes yes indeed.. and I am OCD and cant go to sleep until all the outputs are finished .. lol

I’m the same way, and it’s pathetic because I intercepted a Category 3 and 4 Hurricane last year, and this will be a complete shoe shoe compared to that. But I’m really invested into this system because I’m supposed to move from New Orleans to Georgia on Saturday for my new job, and this will probably impact it. So typical.

[CyclonicFury]

00z UKMET text product:
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.05.2018



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.5N 84.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.05.2018 26.0N 84.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 28.05.2018 27.8N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.05.2018 28.3N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE