ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#241 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 22, 2018 11:14 pm

CMC is now stalling it just off shore for about a day before moving inland around the mouth of Mississippi. majority of models are now showing it being left behind in some form or fashion... not counting the silly operational GFS
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#242 Postby Dylan » Tue May 22, 2018 11:22 pm

I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.
2 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#243 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 22, 2018 11:29 pm

Dylan wrote:I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.


yeah, and it will cover multiple states.. no long wave trough at all. if it does not reform centers as often while moving north than its forward progress will be limited those center jumps are what is producing the fast motion with the models. and if that is the case then could remain offshore for awhile and do similar stuff to earlier Euro runs and now ICON .. have to wait for the upper trough to position itself and see where that shear axis sets up and its orientation. and.... well see how well defined a center we get before into moves into the gulf.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#244 Postby galaxy401 » Tue May 22, 2018 11:41 pm

Ugh, hearing the word stalling right at landfall sends a chill to myself after the madness with Harvey. Hope that's not the case here.
2 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#245 Postby Dylan » Tue May 22, 2018 11:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Dylan wrote:I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.


yeah, and it will cover multiple states.. no long wave trough at all. if it does not reform centers as often while moving north than its forward progress will be limited those center jumps are what is producing the fast motion with the models. and if that is the case then could remain offshore for awhile and do similar stuff to earlier Euro runs and now ICON .. have to wait for the upper trough to position itself and see where that shear axis sets up and its orientation. and.... well see how well defined a center we get before into moves into the gulf.


It’s plain as day when you look at a 500mb chart of North America heading into Sunday and beyond. People way smarter than I am are pointing this out as well.
2 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#246 Postby USTropics » Tue May 22, 2018 11:53 pm

UKMET plots, looks like a weaker system but a noticeable turn towards the NW at the end:

Code: Select all

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.05.2018

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.5N  84.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.05.2018  26.0N  84.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 28.05.2018  27.8N  85.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.05.2018  28.3N  85.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


Image
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8344
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#247 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue May 22, 2018 11:57 pm

That was very interesting, thank you.

TheStormExpert wrote:Interesting Twitter discussion by Philippe Papin on Invest 90L and its CAG (Central American Gyre) origin and key aspects of this kind of originating TC potential.


Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#248 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 23, 2018 12:24 am

00z GEFS clustered near the Panhandle/Big Bend
Image
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#249 Postby USTropics » Wed May 23, 2018 1:30 am

Not much change in the 00z ECMWF, time frame has slowed down by a day in terms of landfall with a slightly weaker vort signature, but looks to be a slow moving, heavy rain producing event once again in the NGOM/SE US:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#250 Postby Dylan » Wed May 23, 2018 1:43 am

0z EURO to NOLA. It’s been no further west than south-central Louisiana and no further east than Gulfport, MS over the past 3 days. Very consistent. Only a matter of time until the GFS caves into the European, which is its anthem.
1 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#251 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed May 23, 2018 1:50 am

Euro stuck on NOLA
2 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#252 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 23, 2018 2:24 am

Dylan wrote:0z EURO to NOLA. It’s been no further west than south-central Louisiana and no further east than Gulfport, MS over the past 3 days. Very consistent. Only a matter of time until the GFS caves into the European, which is its anthem.

The broad center will likely come ashore near NOLA, but the stronger bands will likely be much further
east over florida.

This should be a sheared right handed storm I would guess.
0 likes   

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#253 Postby stormreader » Wed May 23, 2018 2:26 am

Yeah...posted that Euro solution last night delivered through local met here in La. Beginning to look like very severe impacts (rainfall) for NOLA in particular. The forecasted stall by Euro also shows precip expanding westward (as you might imagine with weak steering) into SW La too. Could be very serious situation from Pensacola to La/Tex birder. I know that’s significantly further west than what was supposed a day or two ago. But becoming a very real possibility now.
0 likes   

Twisted-core
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#254 Postby Twisted-core » Wed May 23, 2018 2:49 am

Just as well its a sheared environment in GOMEX this modelled storm should encounter,
well hoping it stays tamed by excessive shear.
Image
Image

Image
https://imgur.com/quvymtq
Ukmet 00z thinks a stronger system may play out..Clearing the shear within the gyre.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#255 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 23, 2018 4:52 am

Image

I am putting a satellite loop once or twice per day as people in the future will want to know how the system looked at this point. It would add to the pleasure of looking back at the cyclone!
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#256 Postby northjaxpro » Wed May 23, 2018 5:16 am

Well, no change with the 06Z GFS. This run continues to show the boatload of rain moving over Florida. GFS still maintains Invest 90L has a weak, sloppy and sheared system. getting no stronger than 1002 mb as it moves over Florida during the weekend, then north into South Carolina on 12Z Monday. morning
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138895
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#257 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 23, 2018 5:26 am

JB goes with Euro.

@BigJoeBastardi
GFS continues to look like the feedback fairy has got it, Euro track toward central gulf coast of east side weighted feature looks much better to me


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/999233832183320576


2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#258 Postby stormreader » Wed May 23, 2018 5:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
tailgater wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:MId and upper levels are becoming less dry around the system. Could see more convection build overnight.

yep, and the southern GOM showing up pretty on Mimic TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Very nice....The gyre appears very distinctly in those images.
just in case anyone missed it. there is a new and improved TPW> >> http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

you can check multiple layers. its is very helpful :)
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#259 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 23, 2018 5:50 am

90L looks like total dried up crap this morning. The models showing a drier than normal MDR and Caribbean weren’t kidding!
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#260 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 6:00 am

The 2 day chances of formation are 0% for a reason, aren't they?
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests