ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[caneman]

Traveling down the West coast of Florida tomorrow night dont want any surprises

[Aric Dunn]

THe southerly upper level winds have already begun to really spread over the circulation. only a short matter of time before the llc either starts moving north trying to catch the convection or we get a reformation. no signs of a reformation at the moment though.

or we see convection build with the llc and the other convection just gets sheared off..

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC

[caneman]

The GFS is now basically where the Euro was aiming at consistently several days ago... and although the last day of Euro runs were a slight shift towards the MS/AL line... gotta give the Euro cudos for at least being in the same ballpark all week long... thus far...

Euro has been WAY more consistent than the jacked up GFS of late. Yep kudos..

Dont think anyone is really taking the GFS seriously. The UKMET run I would trust more. Models look to now be settled on North Gulf coast. Good for us in west Florida

[Frank P]

12z UKMET shifted west, but not significantly, and remains the eastern outlier.

Looks like both the UKMET and CMC, eastern outliers, both take Alberto over the western tip of Cuba... will have to see if that pans out and will be easy enough to confirm in the next day... GFS and Euro go thru the channel between Cuba and the Yucatan...

[robbielyn]

can someone please post the ukmet run or provide a link please?

[ROCK]

NHC taking this over the LC which is mighty warm this time of year. Keeping a high end TS seems logical but wouldn't rule out a Cat 1 if shear lets up some.JMO

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest UKMET track can be found on the SFWMD plot. No idea on intensity.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_01

[SunnyThoughts]

Where does the Ukie make landfall?
Thanks for the link Jeremy.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS FV3 Takes storm very near SW florida coast

[tolakram]

Reminder everyone, this is the models thread not the discussion thread.

If your post doesn't add to the conversation, here in the models thread, it will probably be removed. We welcome discussion about model runs but one liners, especially one liners that bash a model, will not be tolerated. I think it's also a good time to remind everyone to be respectful of everyone else, regardless of the color of your name.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET didn't move much as Evil Jeremy pointed out, another image:

[NDG]

12z CMC also shifted a little west from previous 0z run, for what ever is worth.

[gatorcane]

GFS FV3 Takes storm very near SW florida coast

Yep, same as the UKMET, saved image of GFS FV3:

[gatorcane]

certainly looks like the center may be trying to form under convection to the NE. The GFS FV3 and UKMET show a more NE track to the Western tip of Cuba in this type of scenario.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

With systems like this. always watch the seabreezes. they can kill a weak circ and can also help jump start.. look at the seabreeze moving inland from the north coast... it might help spin up another vort of llc offshore the in the gulf.

[Frank P]

UKMET

[PSUHiker31]

I just don't like that double low the GFS is showing while it is in the central Gulf. It is pretty clear that the model is still having feedback issues and it is affecting the projection for Alberto

[stormreader]

Another westward shift by the GFS, now just south of the mouth of the MS River by hr 66.

A long way from Tampa and Fl west coast, isn’t it? Lol. Th east bias gets really tiresome. Seems like it’s only real purpose is as a slight modification for the Euro forecast, and then only if joined by other models.

[SunnyThoughts]

Definitely curious to see recon observations to try and pinpoint where LLC and MLC are at this time. Should be wheels up shortly.