ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119567

As of 18:00 UTC May 21, 2018:

Location: 17.8°N 84.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM

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ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 4:50 pm

Model runs only in this thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: STWO-0%-30%

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon May 21, 2018 4:51 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: STWO-0%-30%

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon May 21, 2018 4:52 pm

Considering the model support that this currently has I'd probably go at least 50% the next 50 days and closer to 80% overall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#5 Postby jaxfladude » Mon May 21, 2018 4:55 pm

Welp it begins, hope it becomes just a rainmaker to right areas that really need it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#6 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon May 21, 2018 5:00 pm

We back fam
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#7 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon May 21, 2018 5:03 pm

NWS Mobile, AL AFD....

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...There is much to discuss
during the period and all centers on the potential movement of the
surface low in the southern Gulf. As alluded to in the previous
section, the surface low will likely be organized as a purely
tropical (warm-core) system. There is still uncertainty with the
forecast movement of this system, but it is noted that the
Weather Prediction Centers Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures
forecast maps reflect the guidance consensus of moving the
surface low northward this weekend to somewhere along the northern
Gulf coast, probably the north central or northeast Gulf coast.
At this point, it is too early to discuss much more than rain
chances for the area, but this pattern supports going with at
least likely pops through the period. For other impacts, such as
potential flooding concerns, coastal flooding potential and rip
current risk levels, these will be assessed as confidence
increases in the overall evolution and pattern during the period.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#8 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon May 21, 2018 5:03 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Welp it begins, hope it becomes just a rainmaker to right areas that really need it.


I know most of the Florida peninsula has had plenty of rain lately, we could use a little up here in the NW panhandle, but not as the one model predicts with the system just sitting for 3 or so days and spinning moisture up. Hopefully there is a middle ground.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#9 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon May 21, 2018 5:12 pm

Latest infrared floater for the invest over the last three hours:

3.12 MB. Source: Generated myself using NOAA/NASA data from GOES-16. This animated GIF is not available from the SSD in this format.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#10 Postby NDG » Mon May 21, 2018 5:13 pm

18z GFS is not making it any easier :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 5:14 pm

Yes NDG,more east and stronger.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#12 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 5:16 pm

Don’t even have a center yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#13 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 5:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#14 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 21, 2018 5:17 pm

18z GFS splits the FL peninsula in half S to N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#15 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon May 21, 2018 5:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#16 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 21, 2018 5:28 pm

18z GFS buys the NW movement and then slow meandering the Euro and others show but not until after traversing The spine of FL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#17 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 21, 2018 5:28 pm

18z GFS Yep more east... stronger storm 993mb over Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 5:29 pm

For those who asked in the Talking Tropics thread about the pressure of 12z UKMET at 168 hours,is at 990 mbs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#19 Postby NDG » Mon May 21, 2018 5:31 pm

Vis loop during the day before the sun sets, broad circulation where I place the L is very apparent this afternoon with all the convection sheared to the east of it.
The 18z GFS loses or weakens this vorticity as it moves slowly NW over the next couple of weeks then forecasts for a new one to form by the end of the week just south of Cuba, while Euro never loses or weakens this vorticity over the next couple of days as it moves NW towards the southern GOM.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT

#20 Postby galaxy401 » Mon May 21, 2018 5:49 pm

Oooh boy it's that time of the year again!
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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