ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

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ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#101 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue May 22, 2018 9:31 am

If Named...whats the first name?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#102 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue May 22, 2018 9:33 am

caneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I've been forecasting hurricanes for nearly 4 decades now, and one thing I've learned (over and over) is that the center will follow the convection. In a higher wind shear environment, follow the convection, not the weak swirl upwind. This disturbance and setup has reminded me of 2012's Debby from the start. Same environment, same appearance. Back then, the Euro was forecasting Debby to turn west with the low-level flow and impact Texas as a hurricane. The GFS was the outlier, taking a sheared TS into northern Florida. The NHC (and us) had a westerly track. Then, overnight, the EC shifted to Florida. The NHC didn't want to shift the track all at once to Florida, so they indicated a hurricane striking New Orleans on one advisory (causing a panic there). Next advisory, the track was into the eastern Florida panhandle. The GFS was right. All the other models incorrectly moved it with the lower-level flow.

The moral of the story is to follow the convection. Where the convection goes (or is sheared off), the center will follow/reform.

I had saved some satellite imagery of Debby (below). Notice any similarities at all? ;-) You could pass that first image off as the current satellite image of 90L.


Agreed as to always follow the convection in sheared environments. however, debbie had a large ridge to its north ( hence the westward motion from the other models). FOr 90l we have strong ridging to the east. This ridging will limit the extent of eastward propagation of center reformations. The GFS also, in this case, is not the same set up as debbie. The last endless runs of the GFS have not only shear driven motion as it was with debbie. the GFS, in this case, has the main driving force of a low/vorticity sitting over southern Alabama( 00z and 6z other runs had it in various other places). Also even from the GFS the shear axis becomes more SSW to even south as 90l move north of the upper trough so in this case the GFS also would be moving north if it were not for the low along the northern gulf coast.

it remains to be seen if any sort of low is there in 3 to 5 days time. there is one there currently but the gfs weakens the current low and develops another is the same spot.. who knows.. but right now the GFS is the outlier for more reasons than just the shear directing center reformation associated with convection.


Not sure I would say the GFS is the outlier. Theyve been the most consistent while the others trend back East. Having lived on the West coast of Florida for forever, their solution for this time of year seems most plausible. The can change of course but if I were a betting man...


Again.. plausible in a general sense sure.. but as I mentioned it is not for the typical reasons of just a sheared system... so the GFS is the only model I have found with that feature along the northern gulf coast thrusting 90l to the ne/nne.. so it is an outlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#103 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue May 22, 2018 9:33 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:As I recall, TS Debbie caused extreme flooding in North and Central Florida.
If this track resolves, similar conditions may occur.

Might wash out our annual camping trip to the Springs. (literally)


I measured over 16 inches of rainfall at my locale during Debby in 2012. Many atras in North and Central Florida had extensive flooding.


Where I was in New Port Richy it was like 22 inches or so. It was awful...the Pittlacoohcie river or whatever it is called was in my garage and 3 inches out of my doorway. No green land for hundreds of yards looking west..just water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#104 Postby AdamFirst » Tue May 22, 2018 9:34 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:If Named...whats the first name?


Alberto would be 2018's first named storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#105 Postby caneman » Tue May 22, 2018 9:38 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
caneman wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Agreed as to always follow the convection in sheared environments. however, debbie had a large ridge to its north ( hence the westward motion from the other models). FOr 90l we have strong ridging to the east. This ridging will limit the extent of eastward propagation of center reformations. The GFS also, in this case, is not the same set up as debbie. The last endless runs of the GFS have not only shear driven motion as it was with debbie. the GFS, in this case, has the main driving force of a low/vorticity sitting over southern Alabama( 00z and 6z other runs had it in various other places). Also even from the GFS the shear axis becomes more SSW to even south as 90l move north of the upper trough so in this case the GFS also would be moving north if it were not for the low along the northern gulf coast.

it remains to be seen if any sort of low is there in 3 to 5 days time. there is one there currently but the gfs weakens the current low and develops another is the same spot.. who knows.. but right now the GFS is the outlier for more reasons than just the shear directing center reformation associated with convection.


Not sure I would say the GFS is the outlier. Theyve been the most consistent while the others trend back East. Having lived on the West coast of Florida for forever, their solution for this time of year seems most plausible. The can change of course but if I were a betting man...


Again.. plausible in a general sense sure.. but as I mentioned it is not for the typical reasons of just a sheared system... so the GFS is the only model I have found with that feature along the northern gulf coast thrusting 90l to the ne/nne.. so it is an outlier.


I see your point but while the GFS has many faults, history proves their usually spot on with this type of set up for this time a year. I'd put more weight on that model at this point and now coupled with others moving more East. Heck, I'm not worried about a storm, I'm worried about the rain.. I remember Debby. The amount of water she dumped is like nothing I'd seen before.. We've had several days of rain already and I dont want 7 more days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#106 Postby Steve » Tue May 22, 2018 9:49 am

I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#107 Postby jaxfladude » Tue May 22, 2018 10:01 am

Not liking the references to 2012's Debby. That flooding was something else. Jacksonville got poured on. Hope not to have repeat of anything close with 90L this time around.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#108 Postby tailgater » Tue May 22, 2018 10:05 am

NDG wrote:Broad surface circulation seen on vis satellite this morning is just east of Belize while all the convection is well east of it.

Image


Gulf of Honduras doing it's thing again in the aiding of tightening of any weak system.
"
Not sure I would say the GFS is the outlier. Theyve been the most consistent while the others trend back East. Having lived on the West coast of Florida for forever, their solution for this time of year seems most plausible. That can change of course but if I were a betting man..."

GFS has been all over the place. Big Bend area, then south Fla., off the east coast, Ga./S,Car., no development . It's bound to get it right sooner or later The other models aren't a lot better but if you go with climatology you'll be right more times than not.
It's still fun trying to figure out which if any will be right. Great discussions as always.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#109 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 22, 2018 10:25 am

The main hazard will be the copious rains.

@TropicalTidbits
Remember, regardless of whether Invest #90L becomes a tropical cyclone, a fire hose of tropical moisture will be directed into the north gulf coast by the system.

Lots of rain is coming. Uncertainty where heaviest amounts will fall, but LA to FL could all see significant totals.


Image

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/998941764626022400


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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#110 Postby caneman » Tue May 22, 2018 10:29 am

Not liking that. So much for us being called the Sunshine
State
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#111 Postby caneman » Tue May 22, 2018 10:30 am

Steve wrote:I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).


I hear ya Steve, at this point its who gets all the rain and how much.
Ugh..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#112 Postby gtalum » Tue May 22, 2018 10:32 am

I guess I can leave my sprinklers off for a while...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#113 Postby kevin mathis » Tue May 22, 2018 10:44 am

From the Tampa Bay NWS Discussion
"As we get into the Friday and the weekend, attention will
shift to a developing area of low pressure in the western
Caribbean and across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Models
beginning to come into agreement on an area of low pressure,
perhaps tropical/subtropical in nature, moving into the
central Gulf into the upcoming weekend. The National
Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a 40%
chance of development in the next 5 days. Regardless of
development, the real concern with this system will be the
heavy rainfall and flooding potential given the increasingly
saturated ground across the area."
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#114 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 22, 2018 10:49 am

The Memorial holiday weekend will not be a great one to be in the beach or in any place outdoors in the gulf coast east of New Orleans going thru Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#115 Postby psyclone » Tue May 22, 2018 10:56 am

As wet as the 5 day QPF map estimate is the 7 day is...wetter. at least so far they're not depicting the extreme Debby type rains and with sea temps remaining cool for the far eastern Gulf that may help peninsular florida. OTOH, things have gotten rather wet with several river gages in west central Florida already near or above flood stage so additional rains will quickly translate into runoff...unlike a couple of weeks ago when we had a good bit of wiggle room...hydrologically speaking..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#116 Postby Taffy » Tue May 22, 2018 10:57 am

@ronjon. The link does not show the complete map with plots
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#117 Postby Dylan » Tue May 22, 2018 10:58 am

I’m sticking to my guns. This will be a Gulf problem, not a southern FL Peninsula into Bahamas problem like the 6z GFS indicates. A western solution from the Mississippi River delta to Destin, Florida seems to be the best bet for landfall. Of course the actual tropical storm conditions will be to the east of the center of circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#118 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 22, 2018 11:04 am

Haven’t posted on here in a few days but I also agree that this is most likely a North and Northeastern Gulf Coast problem, at least for landfall potential of any center that gets going. But all the action and rain will be displaced to the North and East of the center over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Hopefully this makes landfall furtherest west as possible along the northern Gulf Coast so that folks here in Florida don’t receive as much rain as potentially possible if it were to make landfall in the Florida panhandle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#119 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 22, 2018 11:09 am

12Z GFS rolling in is doubling-down on FL peninsula. Basically no development but plenty of rain and storms to dampen most of Memorial Day weekend if not all of it for peninsula Florida :grrr:

Looks like a broad 1006MB low skirts up the west coast of Florida on Sunday.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue May 22, 2018 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#120 Postby psyclone » Tue May 22, 2018 11:10 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Haven’t posted on here in a few days but I also agree that this is most likely a North and Northeastern Gulf Coast problem, at least for landfall potential of any center that gets going. But all the action and rain will be displaced to the North and East of the center over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Hopefully this makes landfall furtherest west as possible along the northern Gulf Coast so that folks here in Florida don’t receive as much rain as potentially possible if it were to make landfall in the Florida panhandle.


That's the real question for fl peninsula folks. If it develops does the center go far enough west to keep the heavy rain west of peninsular florida. I hope it does but suspect it won't. This is a classic case of follow the convection which will probably end up well east of the center.
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