ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

Last night's UKMET on closest approach to Florida:

[stormlover2013]

also I don't like to look at models past 4 days out, anything after that I don't really look at.

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like that southern blob of convection dissolved into a mid level vort. Another bloom forming to the north?

[latitude_20]

We've been getting soaked here just north of Tulum for the last 12 hours. Good thing, as the jungles need the rain. Winds are calm now but were at gale-force a couple of hours ago.

[caneman]

Looks to me like an llc is setting up shop around Cozumel. If that proves to be the case, most models have initialization West of that

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS coming in now already appears to have shifted more to the west out through 36 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like that southern blob of convection dissolved into a mid level vort. Another bloom forming to the north?

well I do see a Vort rotating west away from the convection nw of cancun and another vort likely to be spit out later ssw of Cozumel. this is likely going to keep happening while it is stationary like this.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS looking much better. right in line with everything else up to 48hrs at least. also stronger as well.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the broad low is gaining some Latitude. Think it might make it to the southern GOM before Saturday.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Aric Dunn]

lol spoke to soon. then at 54 hours it starts going down hill..

[FLpanhandle91]

Appears as though GFS is handling its feedback better this run. It also develops this west of the previous run.

[FLpanhandle91]

Nope. Never mind. Feedback an issue again.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z GFS coming in now already appears to have shifted more to the west out through 36 hours.

It also depicts a significantly stronger, more vertically stacked TC than on previous runs, based on the comma-shaped precipitation field. By day two (48h), the MSLP is down to 1002 mb. The centre appears to consolidate directly north of Cozumel, with a tropical storm already in existence by 42h. By 66h, the system is down to 998 mb and centred considerably farther W than on yesterday's runs. Notably, the 12Z run shows a much slower movement than the 06Z run did. However, as mentioned, the run is likely still too far E by day three.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS indicating a stronger ridge this run. I know it tends to overdue ridges, but if this trend continues and no low comes and weakens this ridge, I think GFS and more models will shift west into the Lousiana coastline in the next day or two. Is there anything that will prevent that ridge from being that strong or not persisting?

[Aric Dunn]

989 mb and a hurricane approaching mississippi and alabama lol

[stormlover2013]

ICON, NAM, GFS all came in with stronger ridges, GFS is slowly jumping on board.

[cycloneye]

First mission tentative for Friday afternoon.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 241536
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1135 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-003

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1900Z                   A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1700Z                   C. 26/0915Z
       D. 21.0N 87.2W                D. 24.0N 86.8W
       E. 25/1830Z TO 25/2300Z       E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARKS:  THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD.  DAILY TCPODS ARE RESUMING
       WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED
       OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

We have a new Recon thread for the missions that will go to investigate this system so those who are interested to see the data from the hunters go there.

[stormlover2013]

BIg shifts today in CMC and GFS west!!! models starting to handle the pattern and ridge better...could we see more shift west who knows???

[Sambucol]

BIg shifts today in CMC and GFS west!!! models starting to handle the pattern and ridge better...could we see more shift west who knows???

Any possibility this makes it to SE Texas?