ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the GFS was right and this cuts across Florida and out passed Jacksonville after all.

How's your Monday BBQ looking?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270239
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 32 20180527
022830 2433N 08544W 8430 01530 0071 +150 +056 041014 015 011 000 00
022900 2434N 08545W 8434 01527 0073 +145 +055 036011 013 012 000 00
022930 2436N 08545W 8428 01532 0074 +145 +055 048010 011 013 000 00
023000 2437N 08546W 8434 01526 0075 +145 +055 056010 011 013 000 00
023030 2439N 08547W 8433 01527 0076 +141 +054 057009 010 013 000 00
023100 2440N 08548W 8432 01528 0077 +140 +054 051008 009 014 000 00
023130 2442N 08548W 8430 01531 0077 +140 +053 055009 010 012 000 00
023200 2443N 08549W 8429 01532 0077 +140 +053 058007 008 013 000 00
023230 2445N 08550W 8426 01533 0076 +141 +052 078011 013 013 000 00
023300 2446N 08551W 8436 01524 0076 +140 +051 073013 014 014 000 00
023330 2448N 08552W 8435 01527 0075 +143 +050 068013 014 014 000 00
023400 2449N 08552W 8430 01530 0076 +140 +050 068010 014 014 000 00
023430 2451N 08553W 8432 01529 0075 +145 +050 063006 008 014 000 00
023500 2452N 08554W 8432 01530 0076 +143 +051 076007 007 016 000 00
023530 2454N 08553W 8432 01530 0079 +139 +051 086008 009 017 000 00
023600 2455N 08553W 8430 01531 0076 +143 +051 092008 010 016 000 00
023630 2457N 08553W 8432 01530 0076 +144 +051 045005 007 013 000 00
023700 2459N 08552W 8430 01531 0076 +143 +053 048006 007 013 000 00
023730 2500N 08552W 8431 01532 0078 +140 +054 082007 007 014 000 00
023800 2502N 08552W 8434 01526 0076 +142 +055 090005 007 013 000 00

[sgastorm]

I noticed they just climbed to 850 mb. They must think it is strengthening or the ride is getting rough.

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the GFS was right and this cuts across Florida and out passed Jacksonville after all.

It would be a major coup for the GFS, for sure. The UKMET is also a big winner so far.

EDIT: On another note - the center is visible (or mid-level rotation anyway), albeit barely, on Key West long range radar.

[Alyono]

is the 60 kt wind legit?

absolutely not

[toad strangler]

Yeah definite NNE motion, thought that ended hours ago but keeps going more east...climo flexing its muscle on this one

Climo is a great forecasting tool when used appropriately. I lean on it a lot when modeling gets wacky.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 270249
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 33 20180527
023830 2503N 08551W 8432 01530 0078 +140 +055 081004 006 014 000 00
023900 2505N 08551W 8433 01530 0079 +140 +055 097003 004 012 000 00
023930 2507N 08551W 8433 01528 0079 +140 +055 068002 004 011 000 00
024000 2508N 08550W 8433 01529 0080 +140 +056 059004 005 012 000 03
024030 2509N 08549W 8429 01536 0080 +140 +056 112001 002 /// /// 03
024100 2508N 08548W 8432 01530 0078 +140 +056 088002 002 013 000 00
024130 2507N 08546W 8433 01529 0078 +140 +056 067004 006 013 000 00
024200 2505N 08545W 8430 01532 0079 +140 +056 079009 011 014 000 00
024230 2504N 08544W 8433 01528 0076 +143 +055 084012 013 015 000 00
024300 2503N 08543W 8432 01529 0072 +149 +055 077011 012 019 000 00
024330 2502N 08542W 8430 01530 0076 +142 +055 061015 016 020 000 03
024400 2501N 08540W 8433 01528 0078 +139 +055 067013 015 019 000 00
024430 2500N 08539W 8433 01530 0072 +148 +053 067013 013 017 000 03
024500 2459N 08538W 8432 01530 0073 +148 +053 062012 012 017 000 00
024530 2457N 08537W 8413 01551 0075 +147 +053 049011 013 016 001 03
024600 2456N 08538W 8408 01556 0075 +145 +054 047015 015 /// /// 03
024630 2456N 08540W 8252 01714 0073 +136 +054 050015 016 018 000 03
024700 2456N 08541W 7983 01992 0074 +124 +052 046014 016 /// /// 03
024730 2456N 08543W 7666 02324 0061 +108 +047 010010 012 /// /// 03
024800 2456N 08545W 7252 02789 0045 +094 +040 359013 014 /// /// 03

[stormhunter7]

1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[bamajammer4eva]

Trend of the IVCN/consensus for intensity since 18z 5/25



http://www.atmos.albany.edu

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The storm
is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight, and a
motion toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then move near
or over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the warning area
late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph
(61 km/h) and a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf
Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and
continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward
after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern
Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
and in the warning area along the west coast of Florida beginning
later tonight and Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected
within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday
night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across the Keys
and south Florida tonight, and across all of the state on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within of the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[stormhunter7]

looks like big jump to NE. Guess i was right, the first center was fading and the one to ene was forming? Under that strong convection?

chest thump

Chest thumpin! lol

[cycloneye]

Mission is over.

000
URNT15 KNHC 270259
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 34 20180527
024830 2456N 08547W 7007 03079 0047 +077 +033 359013 013 /// /// 03
024900 2456N 08549W 6790 03345 0052 +062 +025 357016 017 /// /// 03
024930 2456N 08551W 6551 03647 0054 +047 +017 000018 019 /// /// 03
025000 2457N 08553W 6344 03906 0050 +035 +008 344021 022 /// /// 03
025030 2457N 08555W 6109 04216 0039 +023 -000 338018 022 /// /// 03
025100 2457N 08557W 5903 04473 0017 +004 -009 336020 021 009 001 03
025130 2457N 08559W 5742 04688 0007 -004 -017 332023 024 015 000 00
025200 2457N 08601W 5707 04740 0010 -009 -025 332023 023 014 000 00
025230 2457N 08603W 5717 04722 0012 -010 -031 328023 024 020 001 00
025300 2458N 08605W 5720 04725 0014 -010 -036 327021 022 021 001 00
025330 2458N 08607W 5722 04718 0011 -010 -040 330021 021 021 002 00
025400 2458N 08610W 5713 04733 0016 -010 -042 330020 021 018 000 00
025430 2458N 08612W 5717 04719 0013 -010 -043 331020 020 011 000 03
025500 2458N 08614W 5724 04715 0012 -010 -045 330019 019 011 000 00
025530 2459N 08616W 5607 04882 0013 -016 -047 326018 019 013 000 00
025600 2500N 08618W 5428 05156 0194 -031 -050 325015 016 012 000 03
025630 2500N 08620W 5276 05383 0208 -045 -055 313014 016 011 000 03
025700 2501N 08622W 5157 05563 0220 -058 -061 312013 013 010 000 00
025730 2502N 08624W 5018 05779 0233 -074 //// 308014 015 009 000 05
025800 2503N 08626W 4868 06020 0247 -092 //// 296014 015 008 000 01
$$

[cycloneye]

The next mission will depart around 5:30 AM EDT.

[cycloneye]

is the 60 kt wind legit?

From 11 PM discussion:

In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm.

[SeaBrz_FL]

As a Vol. Fire Chief, the current tracking trends is causing me to reevaluate our coastal department's preparedness to plan for increased wind and rain impacts. With the holiday crowed, this is going to be a tough call for the coastal counties EM's and Commissioners. Gulf County declared a Local State of Emergency based on Adv. #6.

No individual FL County SoE's are required since Gov Scott covered ALL of our counties with his FL State of Emergency declaration this morning. Complete news at https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/ . Posting this in case other Floridians have not heard the same. For Gulf County, hoping that you all dodge the worse. They are lucky to have you as a well-informed Fire Chief.

[toad strangler]

Huge slug of precip heading right for Miami area and all of Dade, Broward, up to Palm Beach counties.

[AdamFirst]

Huge slug of precip heading right for Miami area and all of Dade, Broward, up to Palm Beach counties.

That 'slug of precip' extends all the way to the Isle of Youth as well.

[deltadog03]

The always un-reliable NAM (both 3KM and 12KM) are EAST on the 00z runs.

[NDG]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trend of the IVCN/consensus for intensity since 18z 5/25



http://www.atmos.albany.edu

Weaker and weaker. Trends are looking good.