ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed. I was on board with wxman57 last week when he told everyone about how well GFS does with sheared cyclones. GFS has done well again to this juncture with Alberto, with the UKMet backing it up as well.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261150
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 16 20180526
114000 2127N 08605W 8493 01467 0057 +165 +158 001004 004 009 000 00
114030 2126N 08603W 8491 01468 0057 +163 +159 350005 006 009 000 05
114100 2125N 08602W 8493 01466 0055 +166 +157 335006 006 011 000 00
114130 2124N 08601W 8495 01463 0055 +166 +157 333007 007 009 001 00
114200 2123N 08559W 8492 01466 0054 +165 +156 327008 008 011 001 00
114230 2122N 08558W 8495 01463 0053 +167 +156 323007 007 010 000 00
114300 2121N 08556W 8492 01466 0054 +167 +156 315005 006 009 001 00
114330 2120N 08555W 8491 01466 0052 +169 +155 293005 006 010 001 00
114400 2119N 08553W 8491 01467 0050 +173 +153 307007 008 010 001 03
114430 2118N 08552W 8494 01464 0051 +171 +153 302006 008 011 001 00
114500 2117N 08550W 8488 01468 0052 +169 +152 276009 009 009 000 00
114530 2116N 08549W 8497 01461 0054 +165 +153 276008 009 009 000 00
114600 2115N 08548W 8489 01468 0053 +166 +151 273007 007 008 000 00
114630 2114N 08546W 8491 01464 0054 +166 +150 277007 008 009 001 03
114700 2113N 08545W 8494 01462 0055 +165 +152 267008 008 010 000 00
114730 2111N 08543W 8496 01462 0055 +165 +153 273009 009 009 001 00
114800 2110N 08542W 8494 01463 0053 +168 +154 288007 008 013 000 00
114830 2109N 08541W 8499 01458 0055 +162 +159 284010 011 012 001 05
114900 2108N 08539W 8487 01472 0053 +169 +148 272009 010 009 000 00
114930 2107N 08538W 8495 01463 0056 +166 +147 270009 009 010 001 00

[Frank P]

looking at the latest long loop of the IR sat presentation certainly hints of convection building around the center as it appears to be moving to the NNE TO NE... mentioned yesterday that the UKMET and CMC tracks took it thru western Cuba and that looks like a strong possibility today if it continues its current motion TBD.. few if any of the other models yesterday indicated a western Cuba impact...

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261200
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 17 20180526
115000 2106N 08536W 8491 01466 0057 +162 +140 262008 009 010 000 03
115030 2105N 08535W 8498 01458 0055 +164 +138 267009 011 011 001 03
115100 2104N 08533W 8498 01458 0053 +161 +152 275011 013 011 001 01
115130 2103N 08532W 8500 01455 0054 +167 +132 269011 013 010 000 00
115200 2102N 08530W 8491 01466 0052 +170 +128 266013 013 009 000 03
115230 2101N 08529W 8490 01467 0053 +169 +131 258010 013 011 000 00
115300 2100N 08528W 8486 01469 0051 +170 +124 257011 013 010 000 00
115330 2059N 08526W 8496 01460 0052 +172 +128 248011 012 012 000 00
115400 2058N 08525W 8492 01467 0054 +169 +127 244013 013 011 000 00
115430 2057N 08523W 8487 01470 0054 +167 +135 245013 014 012 000 00
115500 2055N 08522W 8494 01464 0057 +163 +148 249012 014 010 000 00
115530 2054N 08521W 8494 01463 0055 +164 +153 238010 011 009 000 03
115600 2053N 08519W 8492 01466 0057 +163 +152 242010 010 011 000 03
115630 2052N 08518W 8492 01467 0058 +165 +152 248010 011 011 001 00
115700 2051N 08516W 8493 01467 0058 +165 +150 244009 010 012 000 03
115730 2050N 08515W 8492 01468 0057 +165 +150 249009 010 013 000 03
115800 2049N 08513W 8491 01469 0057 +166 +153 254009 010 013 000 03
115830 2048N 08512W 8494 01466 0057 +165 +155 259009 010 012 001 00
115900 2047N 08511W 8496 01466 0056 +167 +156 272009 010 012 001 03
115930 2046N 08509W 8489 01469 0053 +170 +152 272010 011 011 000 00

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Plane is getting close to the low that NHC has been following in the advisories.

[stormreader]

The models may be initialized differently after this mornings recon, shear has really pulled the low level center quite a bit further east than the models had predicted.

I'm looking back at the Monday May 21st 12Z run for both Euro and GFS via Tropical Tidbits.

I think both handled it pretty well, especially the GFS with the multiple center signatures. If the current track holds the GFS was too far right the euro a little left (but landfall location pretty close). Because the GFS brought it over Florida there was no strengthening. Once again, the euro appears to do much better but without the GFS the track would be too far left. Even going back to the 12z runs on Saturday May 19th, if you split the difference between the GFS up the east coast of Florida and the Euro, you would have a decent landfall location in the panhandle. I assume this is why the Florida super ensembles and the blended model are so critical to forecasting since they can put error weights on each model and come up with a pretty good track.

The new GFS was even better, though timing is off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018051912&fh=216

I'd also like to point out this is why the GFS bashing looks pretty silly at times. It's not as good as the euro, it's certainly the second (UKMet maybe???) best global model we have at the moment, but it's not trash.

It will be interesting to see how fast Alberto consolidates, I'm hoping both are over estimating intensity ... it's May after all.

I like this post. You do say first that the Euro is clearly the stronger model and if the current forecast holds the Euro solution will have been shown to be closer to final outcome. I was perhaps too harsh with some of my earlier comments about the GFS, in particular. You rightly state that each model has strengths and weaknesses of which the NHC is well aware and are the basic tools used to create its forecast. Good post, Mark....and for me the over the top model comments are done.

[stormhunter7]

Finally they agreed with me in 5am on movement. That complex of storms close to coc pulled it nne, IMO. I believe the ULL is stacking over coc. I expect will see some strengthing today, and shear should relax more as the afternoon goes on. Gonna be the day to watch and see how Alberto handles leaving the Caribbean environment. Still not sure on hurricane watch... I watch and see how 18z data rolls. Haven't pinned a landfall yet, but I would say NHC is doing pretty good job with 3day.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261210
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 18 20180526
120000 2045N 08508W 8496 01461 0051 +172 +149 272009 010 010 000 03
120030 2045N 08506W 8493 01466 0053 +166 +151 269010 011 015 002 00
120100 2045N 08504W 8495 01463 0055 +163 +148 274011 013 015 003 00
120130 2045N 08502W 8494 01463 0051 +171 +154 282007 009 010 000 00
120200 2046N 08501W 8494 01462 0048 +171 +161 261005 006 010 001 03
120230 2046N 08459W 8489 01468 //// +165 //// 287009 010 012 001 01
120300 2046N 08457W 8500 01458 0055 +167 +167 258010 011 012 001 03
120330 2045N 08456W 8485 01472 0055 +162 //// 271011 012 026 005 01
120400 2044N 08454W 8498 01460 0061 +158 //// 259013 015 021 004 01
120430 2042N 08453W 8491 01468 0062 +158 //// 250013 014 022 005 05
120500 2041N 08452W 8618 01341 0062 +173 //// 226008 013 028 013 05
120530 2040N 08453W 8813 01154 0066 +179 //// 265008 009 025 012 05
120600 2039N 08455W 9053 00919 0057 +198 +193 256008 009 /// /// 03
120630 2039N 08456W 9167 00806 //// +201 //// 283007 008 009 001 01
120700 2040N 08458W 9233 00740 //// +205 //// 276009 009 011 002 05
120730 2041N 08459W 9249 00723 //// +205 //// 282007 009 012 003 01
120800 2043N 08459W 9252 00721 0047 +210 +201 290008 008 009 001 00
120830 2044N 08459W 9252 00721 0047 +210 +195 307007 008 011 001 03
120900 2046N 08459W 9248 00723 0046 +213 +192 281008 009 011 001 00
120930 2047N 08459W 9248 00726 0046 +216 +189 262003 008 011 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

Consistent overshooting tops just north of the LLC with lightning.
Better looking than yesterday.
Moistening of the mid levels helped.
Looks like UL winds are minimal.

[caneman]

The models may be initialized differently after this mornings recon, shear has really pulled the low level center quite a bit further east than the models had predicted.

I'm looking back at the Monday May 21st 12Z run for both Euro and GFS via Tropical Tidbits.

I think both handled it pretty well, especially the GFS with the multiple center signatures. If the current track holds the GFS was too far right the euro a little left (but landfall location pretty close). Because the GFS brought it over Florida there was no strengthening. Once again, the euro appears to do much better but without the GFS the track would be too far left. Even going back to the 12z runs on Saturday May 19th, if you split the difference between the GFS up the east coast of Florida and the Euro, you would have a decent landfall location in the panhandle. I assume this is why the Florida super ensembles and the blended model are so critical to forecasting since they can put error weights on each model and come up with a pretty good track.

The new GFS was even better, though timing is off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018051912&fh=216

I'd also like to point out this is why the GFS bashing looks pretty silly at times. It's not as good as the euro, it's certainly the second (UKMet maybe???) best global model we have at the moment, but it's not trash.

It will be interesting to see how fast Alberto consolidates, I'm hoping both are over estimating intensity ... it's May after all.

I like this post. You do say first that the Euro is clearly the stronger model and if the current forecast holds the Euro solution will have been shown to be closer to final outcome. I was perhaps too harsh with some of my earlier comments about the GFS, in particular. You rightly state that each model has strengths and weaknesses of which the NHC is well aware and are the basic tools used to create its forecast. Good post, Mark....and for me the over the top model comments are done.

Great post. We still dont know the end game though. Euro may not be right until we see actual landfall point, strength of system, etc.. They're end solution isnt a forgone conclusion. Obviously the Euro has been the top performing model in the past but they may or may not be right here or more likely, it will be the weight of the 3 best models the NHC went with and the NHC will be most accurate.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261220
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 19 20180526
121000 2049N 08459W 9252 00721 0046 +213 +194 351001 002 010 000 03
121030 2050N 08459W 9236 00735 0045 +211 +194 002002 004 /// /// 03
121100 2050N 08501W 9257 00717 0045 +213 +195 327005 006 /// /// 03
121130 2048N 08500W 9245 00728 0046 +219 +190 303008 009 007 001 00
121200 2047N 08459W 9249 00732 0054 +215 +190 288010 011 009 000 00
121230 2046N 08457W 9250 00732 0056 +215 +192 285012 013 011 000 00
121300 2045N 08456W 9250 00733 0056 +218 +194 280013 014 008 000 03
121330 2044N 08455W 9250 00732 0057 +216 +196 270012 013 009 000 03
121400 2042N 08454W 9247 00739 0059 +216 +194 259011 012 012 000 00
121430 2041N 08452W 9249 00734 0059 +212 +195 248011 012 013 001 00
121500 2040N 08451W 9248 00737 0060 +209 +201 235014 017 014 001 00
121530 2039N 08450W 9247 00738 0063 +204 //// 237016 018 019 004 01
121600 2038N 08449W 9254 00729 //// +194 //// 224010 015 022 004 01
121630 2037N 08448W 9240 00744 0067 +200 //// 203012 015 030 013 05
121700 2036N 08446W 9249 00732 0059 +207 +206 210016 017 029 017 00
121730 2035N 08445W 9245 00739 0058 +215 +205 217019 020 019 004 00
121800 2034N 08444W 9249 00734 0058 +211 +205 217022 022 018 001 03
121830 2032N 08443W 9250 00733 0058 +214 +205 221024 025 020 002 03
121900 2031N 08442W 9249 00735 0059 +212 +208 221023 025 019 001 01
121930 2030N 08440W 9250 00737 0061 +210 +207 219024 024 020 001 01
$$

[GCANE]

Recon reporting 15 mm/hr rain rate.
Not bad.

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

The best analog storm I can find for Alberto is Tropical Storm Arlene (2005). Track and potential intensity are nearly identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_(2005)

[Steve H.]

Looks like the center is the circulation south of the western tip of Cuba. Although there could be multiple centers rotating about. But the one south of the western tip of Cuba is throwing off some thunderstorms this morning and seems to want to be the primary.

[caneman]

looking at the latest long loop of the IR sat presentation certainly hints of convection building around the center as it appears to be moving to the NNE TO NE... mentioned yesterday that the UKMET and CMC tracks took it thru western Cuba and that looks like a strong possibility today if it continues its current motion TBD.. few if any of the other models yesterday indicated a western Cuba impact...

The UKIE has performed admirably as of late. GFS to its credit may have had some of the right ideas with multiple vorticies

[slamdaddy]

Since the NHC initial advisory, the landfall point has shifted approx 90 miles to the east. The initial advisory had a landfall point within the 3 day cone.