ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Next set should be reaching center.

[gatorcane]

Wind starting to pick up here in South Florida...

[JarrodB]

AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 14 20180526
232830 2339N 08526W 8433 01510 0043 +161 +053 340013 014 024 000 03
232900 2338N 08525W 8434 01508 0045 +160 +053 345012 013 025 001 00
232930 2337N 08523W 8430 01512 0043 +161 +054 352013 013 027 001 00
233000 2336N 08522W 8433 01509 0041 +164 +054 357013 014 028 000 00
233030 2335N 08520W 8431 01511 0038 +166 +055 341014 014 026 000 00
233100 2334N 08518W 8433 01510 0036 +172 +055 336014 015 026 000 00
233130 2333N 08517W 8432 01508 0032 +175 +056 332013 014 029 001 03
233200 2332N 08515W 8433 01507 0033 +175 +058 328012 013 032 000 00
233230 2331N 08514W 8432 01508 0032 +175 +059 320012 012 032 000 00
233300 2330N 08512W 8433 01508 0029 +179 +060 316011 012 032 000 00
233330 2329N 08511W 8430 01508 0025 +185 +061 318012 014 033 000 03
233400 2328N 08509W 8436 01502 0025 +183 +061 328016 017 031 001 00
233430 2327N 08508W 8430 01507 0025 +182 +062 326017 017 031 001 00
233500 2326N 08506W 8429 01506 0027 +176 +061 324017 017 028 004 03
233530 2326N 08504W 8434 01501 0025 +177 +059 319015 017 026 001 00
233600 2325N 08502W 8433 01501 0025 +176 +057 331018 020 026 000 00
233630 2325N 08501W 8436 01498 0028 +171 +056 339019 020 020 000 00
233700 2324N 08459W 8431 01501 0027 +171 +056 323018 019 019 000 00
233730 2324N 08457W 8430 01503 0025 +175 +056 314018 019 018 000 00
233800 2323N 08455W 8433 01499 0027 +172 +057 325017 018 018 000 00
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

They are still flying at about 5,000 feet for some reason.

[stormhunter7]

they are in the coc... mid level center looks poorly. Gonna be hard to find low level center?

[tarheelprogrammer]

They are still flying at about 5,000 feet for some reason.

Could be because of the towers firing all over the COC? That looks like a dangerous ride for sure.

[MidnightRain]

Hard to imagine this being a hurricane in 36-48 hours as some models suggest, let alone even a solid tropical storm. I guess we should start seeing some drastic changes happening overnight and tomorrow.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Might be trying to find the midlevel circulation. Right now it looks like they will go south of it.

[AdamFirst]

Hard to imagine this being a hurricane in 36-48 hours as some models suggest, let alone even a solid tropical storm. I guess we should start seeing some drastic changes happening overnight and tomorrow.

That seems to be the thinking. Moderate tropical storm at least before landfall - small chance for hurricane, but a chance nonetheless.

[JarrodB]

URNT15 KNHC 262349
AF308 0301A ALBERTO HDOB 15 20180526
233830 2323N 08453W 8429 01506 0028 +168 +058 329016 018 018 000 03
233900 2323N 08451W 8433 01499 0026 +171 +058 326015 015 015 000 03
233930 2322N 08449W 8434 01498 0019 +180 +058 310016 017 015 000 00
234000 2322N 08447W 8429 01503 0018 +184 +059 302014 018 016 000 00
234030 2321N 08446W 8434 01497 0021 +177 +060 293013 014 018 000 00
234100 2321N 08444W 8431 01502 0019 +179 +060 286008 012 020 000 00
234130 2321N 08442W 8433 01499 0019 +180 +061 264008 009 023 000 03
234200 2320N 08440W 8450 01482 0022 +180 +061 229014 015 023 000 00
234230 2320N 08438W 8666 01267 0028 +183 +061 217016 017 021 000 03
234300 2318N 08438W 8848 01085 0033 +182 +063 199014 015 /// /// 03
234330 2318N 08440W 8930 01011 0032 +190 +066 176014 015 024 000 00
234400 2319N 08442W 9179 00762 0020 +206 +068 163011 012 023 000 00
234430 2319N 08443W 9249 00694 0016 +213 +071 140009 010 022 000 00
234500 2319N 08445W 9248 00696 0017 +212 +074 098005 009 020 000 00
234530 2320N 08447W 9253 00694 0021 +208 +076 045005 006 018 000 00
234600 2320N 08449W 9249 00696 0022 +204 +078 050005 006 018 000 00
234630 2320N 08450W 9252 00695 0021 +205 +078 053007 008 017 000 00
234700 2321N 08452W 9248 00700 0022 +205 +078 018009 010 016 000 03
234730 2320N 08453W 9248 00697 0021 +208 +079 002011 011 /// /// 03
234800 2318N 08453W 9252 00693 0020 +208 +082 350010 011 021 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[stormhunter7]

Recon is having hard time finding center it looks like. They did a loop

[Aric Dunn]

its moving.. 23.6N 83.8W is where I have it now..

coc looks west of 85W to me...but then again...I ware corrective lenses...

per recon

2318N 08440W prelim no dropsonde yet. I was pretty darn close.

[stormhunter7]

Getting low for a better center?

[gatorcane]

Looks like some slight east of north motion still. Winds have really started picking up down here in South Florida the last hour or so even outside the squalls. This is a sign the storm is likely gaining strength or is about to soon.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like from the data there are 2 small vorts.. likely do to this new convection that is firing.

[tolakram]

[stormhunter7]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 84.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily
to the east of the center. Key West, Florida recently reported a
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven