EPAC: ALETTA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

EPAC: ALETTA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:48 am

EP, 91, 2018060312, , BEST, 0, 101N, 994W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2018060318, , BEST, 0, 101N, 999W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2018060400, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1005W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2018060406, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1011W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2018060412, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1016W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, ep732018 to ep912018,




Finnally we have the EPAC Invest.Now we will see how strong it will get and what track it takes.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:10 am

First intensity forecast from SHIP is to cat 2 but this will change as more runs come.Shear will be low on the track SHIP has.

Code: Select all

    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912018  06/04/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    27    31    44    57    71    77    86    89    92    87
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    27    31    44    57    71    77    86    89    92    87
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    22    24    29    36    44    52    60    68    76    78
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11     6     4     4     7     2     5     7     6     1     3     7     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -4    -4    -2    -1     2     0     0     2     5     3     3     0
SHEAR DIR        309   337    10    17   343   326   271   254   307   330   343    87    76
SST (C)         30.6  30.6  30.6  30.6  30.6  30.7  30.7  30.3  30.0  29.8  29.4  28.3  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   170   169   168   168   168   169   169   166   164   160   158   147   141
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.6   0.7   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     7     8     8     9     8     8     7     7     5
700-500 MB RH     70    72    73    75    77    76    75    72    71    71    70    64    68
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9     9     8     8    12    14    19    21    27    30    33    33
850 MB ENV VOR   -27   -16   -16   -17   -11     3    15    45    31    39    39    64    72
200 MB DIV        74    81    95    99    75    90    91   148   120   101    54    34    33
700-850 TADV      -2    -1    -1    -2    -4    -1    -1    -2    -6    -4    -6    -3    -2
LAND (KM)        715   706   700   678   662   566   495   460   465   504   477   476   599
LAT (DEG N)     10.5  10.8  11.0  11.3  11.5  12.4  13.1  13.8  14.1  14.2  14.9  16.1  15.9
LONG(DEG W)    101.6 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.7 102.6 102.6 103.3 104.4 105.4 106.1 107.9 109.3
STM SPEED (KT)     6     5     3     3     3     4     4     5     6     4     8     9     5
HEAT CONTENT      52    61    66    70    72    74    78    79    53    40    28    14    11

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  636  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           21.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -3.  -4.  -3.   3.  13.  24.  32.  37.  39.  40.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   8.   9.  10.  10.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -8.  -8.  -9.  -8.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -0.   4.   7.  14.  17.  23.  25.  27.  24.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   4.   3.   3.   1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   4.   7.  11.  24.  37.  51.  57.  66.  69.  72.  67.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   10.5   101.6

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST     06/04/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   148.6      40.5  to  149.3       0.99         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.72         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    64.2       0.0  to  106.7       0.60         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    84.8     -33.0  to  156.2       0.62         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.1       2.2  to   -1.9       0.56         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    34.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.86         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST     06/04/18  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16485
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:33 am

Lots of deep convection where the warmest waters are. Upper conditions are favorable.

Image
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:45 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:03 am

Floater from Levi Cowan site. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Weather150
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 187
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby Weather150 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:16 am

It seems likely EPAC could get its first major hurricane of the season.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:47 am

12z GFS bottoms at 934 mbs in this run.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11261
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:03 pm

Weather150 wrote:It seems likely EPAC could get its first major hurricane of the season.


Given the ECMWF doesn't do much with the system over the next few days, I have some reservations. A hurricane is decently likely, however.
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:27 pm

A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:25 pm

Is a large area that this system covers so it may take a little bit more time to develop.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 611
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:31 pm

The sooner 91E develops a well defined LLC, the likely stronger it will be. That is why the Euro only shows about a Category 1 while the GFS shows a Category 4. The only limiting factor to any rapid development of this system is its large size.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11261
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:39 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 06/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 327 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 101 101 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 747 738 731 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 73 77 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 37. 44. 47. 49. 52. 54.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.97 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.7 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.7 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 10.0% 5.6% 3.8% 1.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.6% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 5.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#13 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:03 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 06/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 327 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 101 101 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 747 738 731 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 73 77 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 37. 44. 47. 49. 52. 54.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.97 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.7 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.7 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 10.0% 5.6% 3.8% 1.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.6% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 5.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Not sure what's up with that, there's little reason to believe that 91E just dissipates like that
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11261
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:14 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 06/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 57 64 67 69 72 74
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 327 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 101 101 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 747 738 731 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.1 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 73 77 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 37. 44. 47. 49. 52. 54.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.97 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.43 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.7 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 33.7 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 10.0% 5.6% 3.8% 1.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.6% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 5.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 06/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Not sure what's up with that, there's little reason to believe that 91E just dissipates like that


It's likely some sort of initialization error.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:22 pm

5 PM PDT TWO

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually increased today in
association with a broad and elongated area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next two to three days while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:57 pm

00z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2018060500, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1035W, 20, 1009, DB
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:07 pm

00z SHIP imput: Intensity goes up to cat 2.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912018  06/05/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    23    26    32    38    52    69    78    86    91    96    94    87
V (KT) LAND       20    23    26    32    38    52    69    78    86    91    96    94    87
V (KT) LGEM       20    21    22    24    27    35    46    57    68    80    92    94    87
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8     8     7     6     2     8     7     6     4     6    12    15    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1    -2    -4     1    -1     2    -3     0     0    -2    -5    -5
SHEAR DIR        334     3    14     7    14   337   286   324    23    67    85    76    84
SST (C)         30.5  30.4  30.3  30.2  30.2  30.2  30.1  29.7  29.2  28.9  28.1  27.3  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   169   167   166   163   162   164   164   161   155   153   144   137   134
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -51.5 -52.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.4   0.5   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     7     8     6     6     6     6     5     4
700-500 MB RH     73    74    75    75    76    77    75    74    69    67    69    68    64
MODEL VTX (KT)    10     9    10    11    12    14    19    21    25    28    33    34    33
850 MB ENV VOR    -9   -15   -14   -10     0    15    30    33    42    44    57    74    85
200 MB DIV        92    69    54    69   102   113   153   121   100    34    26    34    32
700-850 TADV      -3    -5    -4    -3    -2    -3    -2    -3    -5    -8    -4    -4     0
LAND (KM)        677   686   694   682   675   623   548   541   605   690   745   822   835
LAT (DEG N)     11.7  11.9  12.0  12.2  12.3  12.7  13.5  14.1  14.4  14.4  14.9  15.7  16.1
LONG(DEG W)    103.5 104.1 104.6 104.9 105.0 104.7 104.9 105.9 107.4 108.9 110.2 111.8 113.4
STM SPEED (KT)     6     6     4     2     1     4     5     7     7     7     8     9     7
HEAT CONTENT      79    82    83    82    82    81    64    41    30    25    20    19     3

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  614  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           48.6

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -3.  -3.  -2.   4.  14.  24.  31.  36.  38.  39.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.   8.   7.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.   0.   0.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   2.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.   0.   1.   2.   5.  12.  15.  20.  23.  28.  28.  24.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.   4.   3.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   2.   1.   0.  -0.  -0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   7.   6.   4.   3.   2.   1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.  12.  18.  32.  49.  58.  66.  71.  76.  74.  67.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   11.7   103.5

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST     06/05/18  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   145.5      40.5  to  149.3       0.96         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.72         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    81.6       0.0  to  106.7       0.76         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    77.2     -33.0  to  156.2       0.58         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.4      37.8  to    2.1       0.77         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.3       2.2  to   -1.9       0.46         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    35.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.86         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    14.4%   60.8%   46.1%   42.1%   31.5%   79.4%   86.6%   83.4%
    Bayesian:     1.7%   22.9%   10.5%    4.8%    1.1%    7.8%   20.4%   49.5%
   Consensus:     5.4%   27.9%   18.9%   15.6%   10.9%   29.1%   35.7%   44.3%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST     06/05/18  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1495
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:55 am

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:26 am

Looks like is organizing faster.Here is saved loop.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114782
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:40 am

5 AM PDT TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight
near an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests