EPAC: ALETTA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane

#141 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:17 am

Special advisory!!!! Now a category 3!!

000 WTPZ42 KNHC 080559 TCDEP2 Hurricane Aletta Special Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that Aletta has continued to rapidly intensify, with very deep convection in the eyewall and a warm eye. The initial intensity is set to 105 kt, on the low end of a range of estimates from 105 kt from CIMSS-SATCON to 115 kt at 0500 UTC from a special TAFB Dvorak classification. This special advisory is being issued to update Aletta's current and forecast intensity. The intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt, which is close to a persistence forecast. Afterwards a combination of increasing shear and cooling waters should begin to weaken the cyclone, and no changes were required to the forecast beyond 24 hours. There are no changes to track forecast from the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Last edited by hurricanes1234 on Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane

#142 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:18 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080559
TCDEP2

Hurricane Aletta Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Aletta has continued to rapidly
intensify, with very deep convection in the eyewall and a warm eye.
The initial intensity is set to 105 kt, on the low end of a range of
estimates from 105 kt from CIMSS-SATCON to 115 kt at 0500 UTC from a
special TAFB Dvorak classification.

This special advisory is being issued to update Aletta's current
and forecast intensity. The intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt,
which is close to a persistence forecast. Afterwards a combination
of increasing shear and cooling waters should begin to weaken the
cyclone, and no changes were required to the forecast beyond 24
hours.

There are no changes to track forecast from the last advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane

#143 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:20 am

This is gonna be an interesting couple of months. 8-)
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane

#144 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:29 am

This basin just has a knack for making the most out of its time. Probably because it's easier for EPAC storms to consolidate due to their small size but even 10-12 hours ago I was pretty sure this would be one of those storms that would inherit dry air and not intensify at the standard T1.0/day. I also saw the SHIPS output moving this over cooler water sooner than previously estimated. Even then, I still gave this a shot at Cat 3 but I still didn't really see this stunt coming.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC season

#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:30 am

EP, 02, 201806080553, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1560N, 11060W, , 1, 102, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, ER, IM, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=5.0 PT=5.5 FTBO CON
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC season

#146 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:33 am

Wow, not surprised to see Aletta intensify in a major hurricane, but surprised to see a special advisory. Pretty rare in the EPAC, especially for a fish.

Blake probably saw this impressive low resolution AMSU pass:

Image

Based on this recent MW pass, Aletta is not done intensifying. No outter eyewalls present to suggest an EWRC is going to occur. We're likely to wake up to a cat.4
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC season

#147 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:34 am

I think within the next 12 hours this could get up to 115 knots.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC season

#148 Postby Chris90 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:30 am

Sciencerocks wrote:I think within the next 12 hours this could get up to 115 knots.


Based on the intensity increases Aletta is making, I'm thinking she could be 120-125 kts 12 hours from now.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#149 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:33 am

Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Aletta's impressive satellite presentation has not changed much
since the 6Z special advisory. Thus the initial wind speed will
stay 105 kt, which is very similar to a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates. The hurricane has less than a day to strengthen before
the environment becomes less hospitable, with a notable increase in
shear and decrease in water temperatures forecast this weekend.
These conditions will likely cause significant weakening of Aletta
over the weekend, with rapid weakening predicted by Sunday. The
official forecast is similar to the previous one, but has been
lowered at long range in accordance with the latest guidance. The
GFS and ECMWF suggest Aletta will lose deep convection by day 4, so
the remnant low timing has been moved up to that day.

The hurricane has been moving slowly at about 5 kt during the
night, with a motion toward the west-northwest or northwest. As the
shear increases on Saturday, Aletta should turn a little more to
the northwest as the deep circulation feels the southwesterly flow
associated with a broad upper trough over the eastern Pacific. By
Monday, the cyclone should turn more to the west-northwest and then
westward by the end of the forecast due to Aletta becoming a more
shallow system and being steered by a low-level ridge. One notable
outlier is the ECMWF model, which moves Aletta more westward almost
immediately, resulting in a much farther south track than the other
models. This model has had a southward bias for this storm and is
weighted less it normally would be in this advisory package. The
new forecast is close to the previous one, which also put less
weight on the ECMWF solution, and lies near the evenly weighted
track consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.7N 112.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#150 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:52 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2018 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 15:45:00 N Lon : 110:38:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 953.0mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 6.6


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE


Image
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#151 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:03 am

:uarrow:

Instant T7.0 if the eye becomes warm.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#152 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:05 am

I don't think it's possible to over-hype and EPAC storm.

COD floater loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... rbars=data

It may be running out of time now.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#153 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:34 am

Those who said 120kts congrats!! 12z Best Track:

EP, 02, 2018060812, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1110W, 120, 943, HU
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#154 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:56 am

She's about maximized her potential. We'll probably get good early day visuals before things escalate downwards quickly

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2018 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 15:46:30 N Lon : 111:00:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.3mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +3.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#155 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:58 am

And they said she couldn't do it. :P
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#156 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:39 am

Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

The remarkable intensification of Aletta has continued through this
morning. The eye has become clear and at times has been
surrounded by a closed ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.
The initial intensity of 120 kt is based on a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. It is noteworthy that the
intensity of Aletta has increased by an estimated 60 kt in just 24
hours since yesterday morning.

The short-range intensity forecast is particularly difficult since
there are no obvious reasons why Aletta should cease
intensification. Although the deep-layer wind shear is currently
very low and SSTs are warm enough to support further
intensification, nearly all of the intensity guidance indicates that
Aletta should have reached its peak. Recent microwave imagery does
indicates that a secondary eyewall has not yet formed, however
the resolution of the instruments could limit our ability to detect
such a feature. Given the low bias of the guidance for Aletta so
far, the new forecast allows for some slight additional
strengthening during the day today. By 24 hours, moderate shear
should cause the hurricane to begin weakening steadily, with rapid
weakening occuring between 36 and 72 h while Aletta traverses a
strong SST gradient. Due to the higher initial intensity of Aletta,
the official forecast is a little higher than the previous one for
the first 24 hours, but very similar thereafter.

Almost no change has been to the track forecast. A broad
upper-level trough over the eastern Pacific should cause Aletta to
turn more toward the northwest in 24 to 36 h. After Aletta rapidly
weakens over the weekend, the lower-level trade winds will become
the dominant steering flow, forcing the cyclone to turn back toward
the west. Excluding the ECMWF which does not have a realistic
depiction of the major hurricane, the guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement today and confidence in the track
forecast has increased since yesterday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.8N 111.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.6N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#157 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:54 am

There we go. 60kt increase in 24 hours... in June. Not bad.

On infrarared satellite imagery, she's shrinking fast. Think it should remain a robust hurricane for another 24 hours (more ACE).
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season

#158 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:56 am

Intensity forecasts still need improvements.

@RyanMaue
Hurricane #Aletta analyzed at 120-knots or Category 4 by NHC.
The rapid intensification was not exactly forecasted by the humans ... big intensity bust to start season. But, what went wrong ... what can be learned?
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season (Cat 4)

#159 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:02 am

Image

Fading now but this lead to a very exciting evening.
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Re: EPAC: ALETTA - Hurricane - First Major Hurricane of 2018 EPAC Season (Cat 4)

#160 Postby Kazmit » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:07 am

RI is hard to predict. I'm not surprised it was able to reach this intensity.
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