EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#201 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:58 am

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Satellite imagery indicate that Bud peaked in intensity around 0600
UTC, and cloud tops surrounding the well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter
eye have been steadily warming since then. The intensity estimate of
110 kt is based on a blend of TAFB T- and CI-numbers, and a UW-CIMSS
ADT estimate of 110 kt.

Bud has continued to make a trochoidal motion in the general
direction of 320/05 kt during the past 6 hours. Overall, no
significant changes were required to the previous advisory track due
to the latest NHC model guidance remaining very tightly packed. Bud
is forecast to move slowly in a north-northwestward direction around
a large mid-level ridge extending westward across central Mexico for
the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north
by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Bud is expected to move
across Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday. The
official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the various
consensus models.

Although Bud has an impressive upper-level outflow pattern and is
forecast to remain in very low wind shear conditions for the next 48
hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs of 26C or less
and ocean heat content values near zero. This should result in
significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, which may already be
happening based on erosion of the northern eyewall noted in recent
SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. Due to the expected poor
oceanic conditions and upwelling, rapid weakening is forecast to
begin shortly and continue through the remainder of the forecast
period. By 96 hours, Bud is expected to be inland or near the
western coast of mainland Mexico, and likely have dissipated by 120
hours over northwestern Mexico. However, a 120h point has been
priovided for continuity purposes. The official intensity forecast
is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA,
and FSSE.

Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm
Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the
next advisory package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 18.4N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.9N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.6N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 21.6N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 24.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 32.1N 111.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#202 Postby StormChaser75 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:01 pm

Hurricane Bud looking beautiful,I hope it weakens a lot like forecast before hitting the baja.
Image
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#203 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:54 pm

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Bud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling
northwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous
forecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining
tightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward
speed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening
and continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the
cyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward
speed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by
Friday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to
move inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over
northwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the
low-level circulation will be able to make it across the high
coastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been
provided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative
of the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC
forecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track,
and remains close to a blend of the various consensus models.

Bud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero
upper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold
upwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to
worsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid
weakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja
California on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will
further weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or
even dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The
official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity
consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm
Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the
next advisory package.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#204 Postby CajunMama » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:29 pm

I'm glad I was in Cabo last month! Not much beach left around Playa del Arco from Hurricane Odile in 2014. I hope they don't lose anymore.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#205 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:44 pm

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Upwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud. The hurricane no
longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern
side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are
decreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt
from the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB. The advisory
intensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range.

Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over
New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep
north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt. The ridge is not
expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a
deepening trough extending from California southward should cause
Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours.
After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the
ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the
Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4.
The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is
very close to the TVCX multi-model consensus. This forecast is
along the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to
the east on days 3 and 4.

Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days,
which will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily
weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during
the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and
it is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Bud is likely
to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a
tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula.

Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a
tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48
hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#206 Postby StormChaser75 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:58 pm

From earlier
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#207 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
600 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#208 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:17 am

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Bud has continued to rapidly weaken due to significant upwelling of
colder water beneath the cyclone, resulting in a pronounced erosion
of the deep convection in the inner-core region. Sea-surface
temperature data from U-Miami RSMAS indicate that Bud has churned
up a cold wake that is least 3 deg C cooler than the surrounding
ocean temperatures. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on
average of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Bud has been wobbling slowly about a north-northwestward track of
about 340/04 kt for the past 12 h, and that is the motion used for
this advisory. A deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern
United States that has been partly blocking Bud's poleward trek is
expected to slowly weaken and shift eastward during the next 72 h,
giving way to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The increasing
southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will
gradually induce a more northward component of motion by Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. No change
has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new
advisory is similar to the previous one and lies along the eastern
edge of the model guidance envelope.

Now that Bud has weakened to a tropical storm, significant upwelling
beneath the cyclone should abate somewhat. However, Bud will be
moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6-12 h, which will act to
keep the atmosphere only marginally conducive for the formation of
significant convection despite the vertical wind shear remaining
quite favorable at only around 5 kt. A gradual spin down of Bud's
circulation is expected until landfall occurs on southern Baja
California Sur, followed by more significant erosion of the wind
field on Friday due to cyclone interacting with the mountainous
terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
Decay-SHIPS intensity model, and is slightly below the intensity
consensus models. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is
still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern
Baja California Sur in 36-48 hours.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible
flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the
heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local
weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#209 Postby StormChaser75 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:32 am

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#210 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 108.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#211 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:51 pm

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Bud has continued to steadily weaken as deep convection has been
non-existent in the inner-core region for more than 6 hours now. A
couple of recent ASCAT overpasses indicated a few 42-kt wind vectors
in the northeastern quadrant. Even allowing for some undersampling
of the small wind field, those data only support winds of about
45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory.

Bud has been moving in a steadier north-northwestward motion of
about 345/05 kt over the past 6 h. The blocking ridge to the north
of Bud is beginning to weaken and shift slowly eastward. This trend
is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period
as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches Baja California from the
northwest. Southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching
trough will gradually increase and induce a northward component of
motion by Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast on Friday. The latest NHC model
guidance remains tightly packed about the previous few forecast
tracks, so significant changes were required on this advisory
package.

Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6 hours or so,
which will act to inhibit inner-core convection from redeveloping,
resulting in a slow spin down and weakening of the cyclone. However,
there will be enough available instability in outer portion of the
circulation to help maintain a convective banding structure, which
should be sufficient to maintain Bud as a tropical storm until it
reaches Baja California in about 36 hours. After that, interaction
with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern
Mexico should promote more significant weakening, and Bud is
expected to become a remnant low or dissipate shortly after 72 hours
when the system is inland over northwestern Mexico.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible
flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the
heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local
weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA
48H 15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#212 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:52 pm

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have
leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has
generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep
convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the
eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that
the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has
generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial
intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also
in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB.

Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side
of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This
general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that
should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur
by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the
tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north
and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland
Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small
adjustments were made to the previous track forecast.

Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over
cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja
California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the
surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h
position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive
that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update
of the previous one.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and
possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information
on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your
local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#213 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:38 am

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140513
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1200 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...BUD SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 109.3 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue on Thursday. A faster northward
motion should occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja
California Sur late on Thursday and move over the Gulf of California
on Friday. The weakening storm is expected to make a second
landfall over mainland Mexico by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although slow weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to
still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California
Sur. Bud is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low or dissipate
after it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#214 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:17 am

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds,
and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the
north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT
data is available over Bud tonight.

The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to
increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja
California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to
continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than
indicated in the forecast.

Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward
at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The southerly flow ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some
increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48
hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the
cyclone.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#215 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:28 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 141453
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Bud's overall structure and convective pattern have changed little
since the previous advisory, with the tropical storm consisting of
mainly a large swirl of low clouds and fragmented cyclonically
curved bands of moderate convection. Despite this unimpressive
satellite appearance, Bud is still producing tropical-storm-force
winds in the the convective band in the northern semicircle. A
Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas
recently reported a 2-minute average wind of 39 kt and a gust to 53
kt, and also reported 36-kt winds for a 5-minute period shortly
after 1200 UTC. The observing site has also recorded a pressure of
1004.5 mb thus far. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity
is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory, and the central
pressure is estimated to be 1000 mb.

Bud has a broad inner-core wind field and a small-scale vortex has
been rotating counter-clockwise within the larger cyclonic gyre.
After smoothing through all the wobbles of the center, a motion
of 345/06 kt is computed over the past 18 hours. No significant
changes were made to the previous track forecast. The model guidance
is tightly packed around the previous advisory track and remains in
excellent agreement that Bud will gradually turn northward during
the next 36 hours around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
located across north-central Mexico. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by 48 hours as the steering flow becomes
more southwesterly ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, which
will also act to accelerate Bud. The new NHC forecast track is just
a tad to the west of the previous track through 24 hours, and lies
along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.

During the next 24 hours, Bud will be moving over cool waters and
interacting with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja
California, which should result in a gradual erosion of the deep
convection and spin down of the circulation. Some enhanced wind flow
in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling between Bud's center
and the higher terrain of mainland Mexico is possible once Bud's
center emerges over the Gulf of California in 24 hours. For that
reason, Bud is being maintained as a tropical depression until the
second landfall occurs in about 36 hours. After landfall, rapid
weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high
terrain of mainland Mexico.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 21.7N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#216 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:17 pm

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141749
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1200 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...BUD PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The
weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center
reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to
weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay
into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while
it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a wind gust to 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through
Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#217 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:23 pm

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's
wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the
past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in
the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily
a large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the
northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based
on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of
Cabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt
have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by
local terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather
station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34
kt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains
at 40 kt.

Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were
required to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains
in excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while
crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge
over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday
afternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large
subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico,
a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by
36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the
previous forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the
model guidance suite.

Bud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours
or so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous
terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation,
inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of
the Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective
banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some
enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to
funneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as
a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30
hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours
is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#218 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Corrected formatting in summary section

...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 109.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 36 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later this evening and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.
The weakening cyclone, or its remnants, are expected to move over
mainland Mexico by Friday night or early SaturdStewartay and then
dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud
is forecast to weaken tonight as the cyclone moves across the Baja
California peninsula. The system should decay into a tropical
depression by Friday and become a remnant low when it moves inland
over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Mexican Navy
automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial
observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California
Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area
beginning Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#219 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:35 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BUD EP032018 06/15/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 30 31 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 35 38 37 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 40 35 37 35 32 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 24 24 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 243 231 234 234 232 225 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.9 26.3 27.1 25.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 112 127 136 123 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 62 60 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 20 26 25 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 13 33 25 34 58 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -6 0 -1 -2 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 36 -14 39 65 12 -159 -382 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.7 26.9 29.2 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.1 109.7 109.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -19. -23. -24. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.7 109.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 1.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.4% 6.7% 6.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 1.5% 3.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 00 UTC ##
## ����������������������������������������
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm

#220 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:54 pm

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California
Peninsula. There have been a few observations of tropical-storm-
force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening. Since that
time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja
California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In
addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n
mi north of the center. Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35
kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.

After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has
made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours. This has
delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening.
Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a
north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center
across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then
expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then
north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California
as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud
is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of
Sonora by Friday evening.

The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction
with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf
of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective
bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the
Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm
status for a little longer. By 24 hours, interaction with the
terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical
depression before landfall over Sonora. Thereafter, the high
terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low
by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.

Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and
Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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