EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:37 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has increased during the past several hours, but remains
disorganized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive
for development later today, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:56 am

Finally! They seem to be waiting till the last minute to declare invests these days. At least with the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:01 am

AnnularCane wrote:Finally! They seem to be waiting till the last minute to declare invests these days. At least with the EPAC.


I think is the first time since I have been watching the tropics ( a long time ago) since that a system with 80% in 2 days is not a invest.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:04 am

:uarrow: Also considering this system probably will effect land. Land-falling in Baja. This one won't be as relaxing as watching Aletta RI
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:07 am

Is oficial the Invest is up!

EP, 92, 2018060712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 930W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2018060718, , BEST, 0, 120N, 940W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2018060800, , BEST, 0, 120N, 950W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2018060806, , BEST, 0, 120N, 960W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2018060812, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:16 am

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Also considering this system probably will effect land. Land-falling in Baja. This one won't be as relaxing as watching Aletta RI


Agreed. This one will have a closer track to Mexican coast and then comes Cabo San Lucas/Baja California Sur.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:22 am

Levi Cowan site has the 92E floater.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:29 am

Code: Select all

     * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP922018  06/08/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    22    25    30    43    51    59    66    72    74    72    69
V (KT) LAND       20    20    22    25    30    43    51    59    66    72    74    72    69
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    21    22    24    27    29    33    36    39    41    42
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        19    14    10    14    19    27    25    23    11     2    12    12    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     3     2     1     0     5     5     2     3     6     1     6     1
SHEAR DIR        333   344     3    42    54    47    28     1   332   170    54    72    47
SST (C)         30.8  31.0  31.0  31.0  30.8  30.6  30.7  30.8  29.8  27.8  25.6  26.7  27.2
POT. INT. (KT)   172   172   172   172   171   167   170   172   166   146   121   129   136
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -53.1 -51.8 -52.2 -50.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.6   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     7     6     6     6     6     7     7     9     5     5     6
700-500 MB RH     83    84    85    86    86    86    85    83    80    77    66    56    62
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     7     8     9    11    13    13    15    18    21    23    24    23
850 MB ENV VOR    -8   -15   -29   -34   -44   -42   -34     8    13    36    80    74    39
200 MB DIV        58    61   108   114   124   187   130    77    89   113    75    74    73
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -1    -4    -6    -8    -8    -8    -4    -7   -10    -3     0
LAND (KM)        419   441   479   539   603   698   640   428   206   218   517   705   731
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.0  11.9  11.8  11.6  11.1  11.5  13.5  16.2  18.3  18.3  17.0  16.1
LONG(DEG W)     97.0  98.2  99.4 100.6 101.6 102.6 102.2 102.0 103.3 106.7 110.8 112.5 111.0
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    12    11     9     2     7    12    17    21    15     7    11
HEAT CONTENT      25    27    36    39    43    50    49    52    29    11     0     2    14

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  622  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           13.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -3.  -4.  -3.   3.  13.  24.  32.  37.  38.  39.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   2.  -1.  -6. -10. -12. -11. -10.  -9.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.   0.   1.   4.   5.   6.   5.   4.   4.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   4.   8.   9.  12.  15.  18.  20.  19.  17.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   5.   7.   7.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   5.  10.  23.  31.  39.  46.  52.  54.  52.  49.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   12.0    97.0

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST     06/08/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   151.7      40.5  to  149.3       1.00         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    15.2      18.9  to    1.4       0.21         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    34.0       0.0  to  106.7       0.32         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    93.0     -33.0  to  156.2       0.67         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   -16.0     735.9  to  -82.5       0.92         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST     06/08/18  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:25 am

@webberweather
Residents in Mexico, SW US, & even the Plains should keep tabs on Invest #92E in the EP. The remnants of #Aletta are forecast to weaken the Rockies subtropical high, which might draw (eventual) Hurricane #Bud north, possibly leading to more rain in these areas in a week or two.




https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1005092762356781057
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:30 am

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Also considering this system probably will effect land. Land-falling in Baja. This one won't be as relaxing as watching Aletta RI


This should be rapidly weakening by the time it gets close to land. SST's there aren't too warm yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:25 pm

90%-90%

A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is showing signs organization, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to
increase this morning. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development throughout the next several days and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off
the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#12 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:34 pm

Starting to come together

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:34 pm

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PHNC 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 96.3W TO 13.2N 101.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 97.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. OF NOTE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING OF 92E
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS UNDEFINED AND THE INVEST WAS
OPENED BASED ON ANTICIPATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
REACH WARNING CRITERIA AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:47 pm

18z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2018060818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 964W, 30, 1007, DB

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:56 pm

RI 25 kt probability is at 15.3% for 24 hour period.

Code: Select all

         * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP922018  06/08/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    37    41    47    57    67    76    82    83    83    77    69
V (KT) LAND       30    33    37    41    47    57    67    76    82    83    83    77    69
V (KT) LGEM       30    34    37    40    42    48    56    64    69    71    69    65    57
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        15    12    10    11    14    17    18     8     9     9     8    10     1
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     3     5     4     3     7     2     3    -2    -4     2    -1     0
SHEAR DIR        319   311   335     9    41    11   352   342   174    76    54    51     7
SST (C)         30.8  30.9  31.0  31.1  31.1  30.9  30.1  29.0  27.3  26.7  26.2  24.6  23.0
POT. INT. (KT)   171   171   171   171   171   172   167   156   137   128   124   108    92
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.9   0.9   0.8   1.0
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     5     6     7     7     7     6     6     5     4     3
700-500 MB RH     83    84    87    88    87    86    82    81    75    71    69    64    57
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9    10    12    13    14    17    19    22    23    25    24    22
850 MB ENV VOR    -2    -5   -10   -13   -10    12     1    30    29    50    46    53    37
200 MB DIV        62   111   108   124   142   129    68   123   158   122    83    40     6
700-850 TADV       1     0    -1    -3    -5   -11   -10   -13    -4    -2    -3     0    -2
LAND (KM)        467   468   465   452   446   411   336   283   360   520   497   389   278
LAT (DEG N)     11.5  11.6  11.8  12.1  12.5  13.5  15.0  16.6  17.7  17.5  18.0  19.4  20.7
LONG(DEG W)     96.4  97.3  98.3  99.2 100.1 101.6 103.2 105.4 107.9 109.6 109.7 110.1 111.3
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9    10     9     9    10    12    13    11     4     5     8    10
HEAT CONTENT      28    24    27    36    41    45    41    13     7     4     3     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  656  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           32.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   5.  13.  21.  27.  29.  30.  30.  28.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   1.  -0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   5.   7.  11.  15.  18.  19.  20.  17.  13.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   7.   5.   4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  11.  17.  27.  37.  46.  52.  53.  53.  47.  39.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   11.5    96.4

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST     06/08/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.48         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   141.0      40.5  to  149.3       0.92         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    12.5      18.9  to    1.4       0.37         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    31.2       0.0  to  106.7       0.29         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.21         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   109.4     -33.0  to  156.2       0.75         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   -33.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.94         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST     06/08/18  18 UTC 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:36 pm

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Very dangerous hurricane to Soccoro Island before turning north towards Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#17 Postby Chris90 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:12 pm

It seems the models have backed off on the intensity a bit compared to what they were showing a few days ago. I'm not that great at model and condition analysis though, so what are some thoughts from some of you with more experience? Still thinking there's a good chance of a major from this or becoming less bullish?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#18 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:19 pm

Chris90 wrote:It seems the models have backed off on the intensity a bit compared to what they were showing a few days ago. I'm not that great at model and condition analysis though, so what are some thoughts from some of you with more experience? Still thinking there's a good chance of a major from this or becoming less bullish?


It will traverse the warmest waters available in the Western Hemisphere so plenty of fuel for intensification. Upper conditions are decent and not much worse than what Aletta had. It will probably become a major.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:26 pm

Chris90 wrote:It seems the models have backed off on the intensity a bit compared to what they were showing a few days ago. I'm not that great at model and condition analysis though, so what are some thoughts from some of you with more experience? Still thinking there's a good chance of a major from this or becoming less bullish?


High-resolution Euro has this bottoming out near 950mb. That's a cat.3 in itself. Since the Euro is usually conservative, it could be another Cat.4 on our hands.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#20 Postby Chris90 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Chris90 wrote:It seems the models have backed off on the intensity a bit compared to what they were showing a few days ago. I'm not that great at model and condition analysis though, so what are some thoughts from some of you with more experience? Still thinking there's a good chance of a major from this or becoming less bullish?


It will traverse the warmest waters available in the Western Hemisphere so plenty of fuel for intensification. Upper conditions are decent and not much worse than what Aletta had. It will probably become a major.



Thank you. I was looking at the SSTs wondering why the intensity guidance seemed low. Was wondering if there was something going on with the upper conditions that would hinder 92, but if they're comparable to what Aletta has had, it does seem like a major is quite possible.
Fingers crossed this heads farther west and avoids Mexico/Baja.
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