EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:39 pm

Bud's CDO is shrinking. Seems to be having dry air problems. I suppose it's possible this has peaked already.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#162 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:09 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...RAINBANDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 107.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#163 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:11 pm

I think even if it doesn't strengthen further, it should at least maintain its strength for another day or so while conditions remain favourable.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#164 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:33 pm

EP, 03, 201806111800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 10710W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, BZ, VIM, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=5.0 BO EYE MET=5.0 PT=5.5 FTBO DT
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#165 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:38 pm

The perfect shot.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#166 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#167 Postby Kazmit » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:40 pm

The eye is looking better defined now.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#168 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:48 pm

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#169 Postby aperson » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:13 pm

Looks like it's about to get an embedded white ring set up. Once eye clears out I expect to see a T6.0 Cat 4.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#170 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:35 pm

...CORE OF HURRICANE BUD MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO BUT RAINBANDS ARE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES




Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the
eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of
TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from
UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the
opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12
hours or so before the environmental conditions become less
conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters
near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is
expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity
forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which
weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual
decay.

Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud
continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical
ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once
Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36
hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then
northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is
not different from the previous one and is in the middle of
the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the
HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost
of the models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#171 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:49 pm

Bud looks much better now. Nice B ring with an OW that is slowly becoming circular. If it keeps up, this will be a Category 4 in a short order.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#172 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:02 pm

This is the best he has looked all day. I'd say now worthy of at least 115kts

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#173 Postby aperson » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:02 pm

Every time convection wraps to the same part of the SW quad there's significant lift. It's been happening repeatedly since hot towers started firing in the CDO pattern last night. Neat feature, not sure what it means.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#174 Postby Visioen » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:45 pm

My computer screen is becoming too small.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#175 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:54 pm

This is the best Bud has ever looked. Very impressive for June.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#176 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:59 pm

Attaboy. That's a nice clear eye that Bud has right now.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#177 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:05 pm

Eye clearing out on visible:

Image

Let's see how much the numbers go up if/when the eye completely clears out. Because SAB is lagging behind the rest, constraints may limit its estimates. NHC will likely need to rely on ADT and TAFB if we want to see a cat.5.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#178 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:05 pm

Eye clearing out.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#179 Postby aperson » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:11 pm

Last few frames are showing cloud tops in the ring warming without any nearby convection forcing subsidence. I think it's either leveled off or started weakening slightly, but this could easily be a bit of reorganization. Still looks like a solid T6.0 Cat 4 that would be underestimated a bit due to cirrus in the eye.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#180 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:26 pm

aperson wrote:Last few frames are showing cloud tops in the ring warming without any nearby convection forcing subsidence. I think it's either leveled off or started weakening slightly, but this could easily be a bit of reorganization. Still looks like a solid T6.0 Cat 4 that would be underestimated a bit due to cirrus in the eye.


Inner core fluctuating by the hour.

AMSR2 pass -- 2 hours ago:
Image

SSMIS pass - 1 hour ago:
Image
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