EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#121 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:53 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
EP, 03, 201806102345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1560N, 10450W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JF, VIM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=3.5 FTBO DT


SAB in JTWC mode.


Wow,I can't believe the are still at 3.5. :double:
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#122 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:09 pm

There has been some really nice convective bursting going on today, but I would like to see Bud fully wrap a solid ring around his eye. He seems to really favor his southern and eastern quadrants. There's a lot of potential here for him, but I'm not sure Bud is going to reach his max potential if he doesn't start fully wrapping and maintaining deep convection in all quads.
Guess we'll have to see what he does overnight.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#123 Postby StormChaser75 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:24 pm

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#124 Postby Highteeld » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:07 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2018 Time : 010039 UTC
Lat : 15:45:25 N Lon : 104:44:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.6 5.3


Not sure what to make of this. Could be fugazi, but my gut says Bud has more growth to do.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#125 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:18 pm

Highteeld wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2018 Time : 010039 UTC
Lat : 15:45:25 N Lon : 104:44:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.6 5.3


Not sure what to make of this. Could be fugazi, but my gut says Bud has more growth to do.


ADT is legit. Raw numbers if they persist, signal a trend going up or down in regards to a TCs intensity.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#126 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:22 pm

The eye appears to be clearing out some more on IR within the last few frames.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#127 Postby Highteeld » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:31 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:The eye appears to be clearing out some more on IR within the last few frames.



Image

There are some pixels around -20*C. Bud is started to resemble a "9"
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#128 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:37 pm

New peak is cat 3 100 kts.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...BUD FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY WHILE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 104.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening. Shortwave
infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that
Bud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined,
and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite
channels. However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the
strongest convection remaining to the east of the center. The 00Z
Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given
the improved structure of the inner core during the past several
hours.

Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This general heading with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days.
Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the
steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the
hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west.
After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken,
allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion toward the Baja California peninsula. The track model
guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near
the various consensus aids. This prediction is largely an update of
the previous one.

A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around
the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification. Based
on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid
intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours. This
forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow
weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could
cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend. More
significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud
tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air
mass. The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short
term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls
in line with the guidance thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#129 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:48 pm

Bud has intensified by 35 kt in the last 24 h, which is equivalent to approximately the 95th percentile of all eastern North Pacific TC intensification rates. Bud has already met the typical criterion for RI. Further RI is still possible/likely.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#130 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Bud has intensified by 35 kt in the last 24 h, which is equivalent to approximately the 95th percentile of all eastern North Pacific TC intensification rates. Bud has already met the typical criterion for RI. Further RI is still possible/likely.



A further 35kt in the next 24 hours will put him at 105kts, so a solid cat 3. I'll go a little higher and guess he peaks at 115kts. I know he is working with warmer water than Aletta and the environment is favorable, but for some reason I just think he is going to miss her mark by a little bit. Just a gut feeling though. I'll probably be served crow 24 hours from now.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#131 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:08 pm

The inner-core structure has really improved over the last hour or two on IR imagery. Colder IR brightness temperatures are becoming increasingly symmetric. Impressive. If the eye clears out soon, T numbers will shoot way up.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#132 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:17 pm

:uarrow: wow. Each frame it gets better and better. Looks like another round of rapid intensification is taking place.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#133 Postby aperson » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:20 pm

That last frame looks like a stadium eye clearing out. What an impressive intensification after those repeated hot tower bursts.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#134 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:53 pm

Bud looks ready to take off. Wish we could get recon out there to see how strong it really is. The eye seems to be clearing out. Should be a major sometime tomorrow.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#135 Postby Highteeld » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:21 pm

Image

Looks about 105 knots to me right now.


Can Cat 5 happen?
Last edited by Highteeld on Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#136 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:29 pm

ADT CI @ 5.0/ Raw @ 5.9
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#137 Postby aperson » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:33 pm

Tracking through extremely low shear environment and convection continues to deepen and remain highly axisymmetric.

Image

It can explode here but it needs to do it very quickly before the environment starts becoming much less favorable.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#138 Postby Highteeld » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2018 Time : 040039 UTC
Lat : 16:02:25 N Lon : 105:22:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 961.9mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -4.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF




Explosive intensification in process
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#139 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:53 pm

Closing in on cat.3, maybe cat.4 if the ring closes because it would be greater than 6.0 on Dvorak.

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#140 Postby Highteeld » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:30 am

Image

If I did not have to work tomorrow, I would most likely stay up all night watching Bud. lol
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