EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#141 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:01 am

Category 2!!

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 105.6W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#142 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:00 am

This will definitely be a major soon
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#143 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:44 am

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud
seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has
recently become less distinct. The intensity estimate of 90 kt is
based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT
estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher. Bud should
remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today,
and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a
slow weakening trend thereafter. The official intensity forecast is
a little above the latest model consensus. Significantly cooler
waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce
Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land
area.

The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the
initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt. A
weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States
is expected to persist for the next few days. Bud is expected to
move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward
the north-northwest in 1-2 days. Around that time, the steering
flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is
forecast to slow to 3-4 kt. Later in the forecast period, the
ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little
faster toward the Baja peninsula. The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track
guidance.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on
data from the latest ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#144 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:29 am

Very impressive outflow in all quadrants. Just needs to maintain convection on the western side of the CDO. It has another 24 hours if it wants to become something.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#145 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:42 am

Second Major Hurricane of 2018 season

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
600 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...HURRICANE BUD WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST WITH 115-MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane: Upgraded to Category 3

#146 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:16 am

Bud has worked on its core a lot more than Aletta did, maybe due to his larger size? Nonetheless a major, the second of the EPAC season. It has the rest of today about to continue strengthening under optimum conditions.

Image

The Eye is clearing and if it finishes that process, may hit Cat 4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2018 Time : 113039 UTC
Lat : 16:26:11 N Lon : 106:31:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 944.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane: Upgraded to Category 3

#147 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:43 am

can a storm maintain intensity all the way up the gulf of california and Mexicali/California as a Cat-1 or 2 ?

Any historical precedence?
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane: Upgraded to Category 3

#148 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:44 am

@TropicalTidbits
Possibly a great example of vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) in the NW quadrant of Hurricane #Bud this morning. These manifest as spiral bands in the inner core that propagate radially outward to a certain point. Sometimes you can see them clearly in the convective structure, like this


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1006152157584920581


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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane: Upgraded to Category 3

#149 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:50 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#150 Postby Highteeld » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:58 am

Another boost in RAW T -- T 6.5 right now
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#151 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:02 am

Bud is becoming more symmetrical. Argument could be made for Cat 4

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#152 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:33 am

Too bad SAB decided to go full JTWC with Bud. Still at 4.5.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#153 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:40 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

...HURRICANE BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...RAINBANDS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES




Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection
surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the
overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers
have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers
have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this
advisory. Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength
during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions
become less conducive. A faster weakening is expected to occur when
Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula.
By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus
HCCA model, which has been performing well.

Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest
or 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered
by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and
the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern
edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn
north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California
peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one
and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#154 Postby StormChaser75 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:48 am

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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:49 am

Bud isn't what I expected to wake up to this morning. Much larger and ragged eye with warmer cloud tops. With that said, this storm has bought itself more time, with the SHIPS output keeping it over 28C waters for another day, and not reaching a sharp SST gradient for another two days. Will likely reach Category 4 but unlikely to reach Category 5.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#156 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:00 am

I still say there's some.sort of chance for it to reach cat. 5. It's an impressive looking storm with another 24 hours to strengthen.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#157 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:27 am

Floater loop with colder cloud topics expanding on SE side, could be intensifying:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#158 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:45 am

@MJVentrice
Impressive vigorous convection firing up the southeast quadrant of Major Hurricane #Bud. If this deep convection can find a way to cyclonically wrap itself around the eye of the hurricane, Bud would likely intensify even more.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1006193640820047878


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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#159 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:13 am

Personally, I think it's a bit less likely this will get past 115 knots. I could be wrong, but we've seen it happen where the ring of cold cloudtops doesn't quite encircle the eye and the eye doesn't quite clear out, slowing down the intensification to some extent. It still has some time, but if it doesn't sort out its structure within the next 12 hours or so (i.e. getting the deep convection to surround a completely clear eye), I don't think it'll strengthen too much beyond here. Of course, if it does sort out the structure, it could be a very different story. We'll see.
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane

#160 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:35 pm

Let's see. Aletta surprised me, actually. While the convection appears to be lacking on the western quadrants of Bud, bursts of intense convection are rotating and making the storm more symmetrical indeed.
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