ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#61 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:43 am

I expect the NHC to drop chances to 0/10 or even 0/0 soon.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#62 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:08 pm

This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#63 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:46 pm

Stewart is holding on to that 0/20

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is forecast
to move west-northwestward over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
later tonight, and move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday afternoon. No development is expected for the next day or
so due to land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and strong
upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development of this disturbance
while it moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#64 Postby setxweathergal64 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:48 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfk_z0qXUAIbnN0.jpg


setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#65 Postby ronyan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:55 pm

setxweathergal64 wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfk_z0qXUAIbnN0.jpg


setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.


Y'all are talking about different things here. Precipitable water: http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Precipitable_water
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#66 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:58 pm

setxweathergal64 wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfk_z0qXUAIbnN0.jpg


setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.


Precipitable water values is a measure of the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. This trough will be very slow-moving, allowing for a prolonged period of rain, some of which will be heavy and may cause flooding.

IMPORTANT: This will in no way do what Harvey did. Most people like to put Harvey and Allison as the benchmark for comparing but please understand every event is different.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#67 Postby Nederlander » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:59 pm

setxweathergal64 wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfk_z0qXUAIbnN0.jpg


setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.

Correct me if I’m wrong but PW values are for a column of the atmosphere, not how much rain falls in a given area. Harvey had slightly above 3” PW I believe. The stalling and continuous feed into SETX was the real problem.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#68 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:59 pm

ronyan wrote:
setxweathergal64 wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:This moisture plume will likely contain record-breaking precipitable water levels. Some locations at the Texas Gulf Coast will likely exceed 3 inches precipitable water values during the Sunday into Monday time period.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfk_z0qXUAIbnN0.jpg


setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.


Y'all are talking about different things here. Precipitable water: http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Precipitable_water


So how does this translate into actual rainfall amounts? Most forecasts so far show 4-6 inches with some localized heavier amounts. Some potential for isolated flooding, but nothing that bad.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#69 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:03 pm

SoupBone wrote:
ronyan wrote:
setxweathergal64 wrote:
setx has a high record breaking amount to meet. 3 inches is a drop in the bucket compared to 40ish.


Y'all are talking about different things here. Precipitable water: http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Precipitable_water


So how does this translate into actual rainfall amounts? Most forecasts so far show 4-6 inches with some localized heavier amounts. Some potential for isolated flooding, but nothing that bad.


A widespread 2 to 4 inches is expected. Localized areas will likely record over 6 inches. Based on the latest model guidance projections on the rainfall, the Houston area could be at risk for the heaviest rain. This makes for the concern for some road and river flooding.
Last edited by ForexTidbits on Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#70 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:03 pm

SoupBone wrote:So how does this translate into actual rainfall amounts? Most forecasts so far show 4-6 inches with some localized heavier amounts. Some potential for isolated flooding, but nothing that bad.


It all depends on how long the disturbance hangs around. A high PW value is in indicator of potential heavy rain, but only for that time when PW values are high. Harvey lasted 4-5 days. This disturbance won't be around very long. Most models I'm seeing are indicating widespread amounts of 2-5 inches. Of course, any training of echoes across an area could result in higher totals. Nothing even remotely close to Harvey, though - just some brief street flooding during heavier storms.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#71 Postby ronyan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:04 pm

I'll let a met who can formulate a better response go into that but PW values are more of a potential and are correlated with total rainfall. However, total rainfall largely depends on the movement of the system itself. This is in no way a Harvey scenario.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#72 Postby EasyTiger » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:07 pm

Fascinating to watch the outflow of Bud interacting with 91L: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#73 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:35 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan
Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This area of disturbed weather, accompanied by strong
gusty winds, is expected to move west-northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula and over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday. Environmental conditions could become slightly more
conducive for some development of this disturbance when it moves
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#74 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:45 pm

:uarrow: I find it interesting NHC has not lowered their chances. They must think it has a chance to develop a closed low over the BOC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#75 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:17 pm

I think the NHC is seeing a 24 hour window where the sheer may relax enough and it could have a chance to organize a little before coming ashore. NHC is probably also factoring in the CMC that continues to spin something up so it gives it the benefit even though most likely scenario looks to be a heavy rain event with the slow moving trough.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#76 Postby jasons » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:05 pm

The BOC and Western GOM have a long, storied history of storms trying to wrap-up at the last minute. There are certain factors that just cannot be reliably modeled very well this far out, such as any pockets of relative low shear sandwiched in-between areas of higher shear, moisture envelopes (or dry air), possible outflow enhancers (or inhibitors) related to nearby tropical systems or troughs, etc.

There are still a lot of variables on the table to sort out before declaring the fate of 91L, but for now the prudent call is a land-falling sharp wave along the Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#77 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:48 pm

jasons wrote:The BOC and Western GOM have a long, storied history of storms trying to wrap-up at the last minute. There are certain factors that just cannot be reliably modeled very well this far out, such as any pockets of relative low shear sandwiched in-between areas of higher shear, moisture envelopes (or dry air), possible outflow enhancers (or inhibitors) related to nearby tropical systems or troughs, etc.

There are still a lot of variables on the table to sort out before declaring the fate of 91L, but for now the prudent call is a land-falling sharp wave along the Texas coast.


Well said, history does show that gulf of mexico provides a tremendous heat engine for prolific rain events. Models this far out can't factor in mesoscale features.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#78 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:56 pm

http://www.weatherstreet.com/CloudsPrecip.htm

weatherstreet.com shows 91L a lot more organized going into Saturday evening.

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#79 Postby ForexTidbits » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:02 pm

The EURO has constantly shown that there will be a hot spot somewhere in southeast Texas of 6-9 inches of rain. With the possibility of a foot in a isolated location.

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#80 Postby latitude_20 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:50 pm

Tulum, Mexico checking in here. We've been inundated with moderate to heavy rain since this morning with more on the way. The jungle is a cacophony of tree frogs, and the cooler temps are most welcome. Sucks for the tourists, though. Headed out to the local expat watering hole to have a Cuba Libre.

Cheers,
Lat20
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