ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

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NotSparta
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ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#1 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:44 am

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 12, 2018:

Location: 13.8°N 80.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119621
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:45 am

Looks decent this morning, but not much model support.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#3 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:46 am

warm round of applause for our 2nd invest. Lots of convection now
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#4 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:03 am

Doesn't seem invest-worthy to me especially with the lackluster model support.

Took a look at the floater and it just looks like sheared convection with nothing at the surface, nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#5 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:17 am

Models starting to just dry this thing out and magically make it disappear once it comes towards texas.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:24 am

NotSparta,I added to your first post the link to the thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#7 Postby psyclone » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:28 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Models starting to just dry this thing out and magically make it disappear once it comes towards texas.


Remember TS Don? Hopefully you guys get some needed rain. Current WPC forecasts hold it pretty close to the coast but at least there's potential.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#8 Postby TexWx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:30 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Models starting to just dry this thing out and magically make it disappear once it comes towards texas.



This would not surprise me one bit if that actually did happen.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#9 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:31 am

psyclone wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:Models starting to just dry this thing out and magically make it disappear once it comes towards texas.


Remember TS Don? Hopefully you guys get some needed rain. Current WPC forecasts hold it pretty close to the coast but at least there's potential.



Porta told me never to speak of Don, 2011 or High Pressure of Death again....Thank you ...LOL
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:34 am

DON.DON.DON was DONe :) This is a weird situation. Either models are missing something or this flare up will be just that...
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby Haris » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:35 am

-image removed-


From 2" we go to .3"


Love hypocrites!!!!
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed image from commercial site
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:38 am

I think at most this system would be a sheared Low to medium grade tropical storm wind wise. I think it will be able to bring some periods of rain and moisture to Texas, although my confidence for heavy rain for Texas is a bit low compared to yesterday- in other words uncertainty is higher due to gfs decreased rainfall forecast for Texas.

Of note- gfs has tended to support development, then suddenly not support development, and then development does occur- so there’s a fair chance some development happens. Regardless of development, some bands of rain and moisture should make their way into Texas, where it will be a battle between moisture and the dry air over Texas which determines how much rain falls.

The shear may enhance rain bands up to hundreds of miles to the northeast of center- meaning if the system stays moist a large swath of Texas coast north and east of the low center may receive bands of rain.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby ForexTidbits » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:12 pm

Image

Invest 91L
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:38 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:43 pm

So still a sharp surface trough without low level closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby EasyTiger » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:49 pm

I can't remember a pre-invest/invest being followed so closely especially in June. I guess we can thank the GFS for the early season attention. While the models backed off yesterday, they're starting to show some signs of life again. Curious to see how this one plays out.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:15 pm

EasyTiger wrote:I can't remember a pre-invest/invest being followed so closely especially in June. I guess we can thank the GFS for the early season attention. While the models backed off yesterday, they're starting to show some signs of life again. Curious to see how this one plays out.


What's the GFS doing? It pulls a surge up toward the West Gulf funneling whatever circulation is there into Mexico and having the heaviest rains around Lafayette/Abbeville, LA. Then, "SURPRISE" it kicks a new low up toward the Western Panhandle in about the 264 hour/11 Day time frame. CMC has the highest rainfall total in the Piney Woods. ICON oddly has a ton of rain offshore of the LA Coast and then spins up a low right over Cameron, LA at the end of the run. NAVGEM is similar to the ICON with the offshore precipitation but doesn't really develop anything in its 180 hour run.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#18 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:Doesn't seem invest-worthy to me especially with the lackluster model support.

Took a look at the floater and it just looks like sheared convection with nothing at the surface, nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


The only criterion for declaring an invest is that the NHC would like to run model guidance on a disturbance. There doesn't have to be much of a chance of development, nor does the disturbance have to have a specific level of organization.

As for the disturbance, looks like the main impact may be to bring some well-needed rain to Texas (and rain to LA). Doesn't appear to be much chance of it being a strong TS or H.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#19 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Doesn't seem invest-worthy to me especially with the lackluster model support.

Took a look at the floater and it just looks like sheared convection with nothing at the surface, nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


The only criterion for declaring an invest is that the NHC would like to run model guidance on a disturbance. There doesn't have to be much of a chance of development, nor does the disturbance have to have a specific level of organization.


I missed that you turned 60 recently. You still look 30 in those bike photos you post every now and again though.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L

#20 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Steve wrote:
I missed that you turned 60 recently. You still look 30 in those bike photos you post every now and again though.


I turn 61 in August. Still enjoy dropping 30 yr-old road bike riders while I'm on my dual-suspension mountain bike. ;-)

Hope to get a ride in Saturday before the showers become too numerous. I'm not too concerned about this disturbance being more than a rainmaker. Never got my numbers in for the hurricane contest here. I went with 9/5/2 in the office pool (includes Alberto).
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