EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:03 am

EP, 93, 2018061306, , BEST, 0, 118N, 973W, 20, 1009, LO

An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the
next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward. By
the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further
organization. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain
causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in
a day or so and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:48 am

Code: Select all

 * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP932018  06/13/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    22    22    23    28    35    41    47    50    55    57    59
V (KT) LAND       20    21    22    22    23    28    35    41    38    31    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    19    19    19    19    19    19    24    26    26    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        24    18    16    17    16    20    15    14    15    10     7     9    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     6     5     4     4    11     9     6     7     0     0    -5    -3
SHEAR DIR        356   352   347   354   353     5    12   356    20     8   357   312   340
SST (C)         30.4  30.5  30.5  30.6  30.6  30.8  30.9  31.0  31.0  30.7  30.2  29.9  29.7
POT. INT. (KT)   167   168   167   168   169   169   170   169   169   169   165   161   160
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -53.3 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 -52.3 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     7     6     5     7     6     9     8    10     8    10     7
700-500 MB RH     84    83    83    83    83    83    82    79    77    76    79    79    82
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     6     7     6     6     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR   -31   -31   -27   -17   -18   -13    -4     4    35    57    84    93    79
200 MB DIV        89    93    98    90    80    64    65    38    47    45    51    79    71
700-850 TADV       0     0     0    -1    -1    -2    -3     0     0     2     0     2     0
LAND (KM)        454   439   423   427   400   329   202    68   -29  -132  -211  -133   -79
LAT (DEG N)     11.8  12.0  12.2  12.2  12.5  13.3  14.6  15.8  16.6  17.4  18.2  19.1  19.9
LONG(DEG W)     97.7  98.1  98.4  98.6  98.9  99.3  99.4  99.1  98.7  98.2  97.8  97.5  97.4
STM SPEED (KT)     5     4     3     3     4     6     7     5     5     4     4     4     5
HEAT CONTENT      27    28    29    30    30    25    19    23    54    49    47    19    20

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  6      CX,CY:  -4/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  726  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            4.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -3.  -3.  -2.   4.  13.  24.  32.  37.  39.  41.  41.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -4.  -6.  -9. -10.  -9.  -7.  -5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   4.   5.   7.   8.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -0.  -0.   1.   2.   1.   2.   0.   1.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   2.   1.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   2.   3.   8.  15.  21.  27.  30.  35.  37.  39.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   11.8    97.7

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST     06/13/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   147.6      40.5  to  149.3       0.98         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    18.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.04         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    28.8       0.0  to  106.7       0.27         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    90.0     -33.0  to  156.2       0.65         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):     2.8     735.9  to  -82.5       0.90         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST     06/13/18  12 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:05 am

12z GFS is more bullish.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:52 pm

This may actually have some chance at making a run at TD or TS status. Conditions look ok but we won't see more than a weak TS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:06 pm

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure
centered about 375 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
continues to become better defined. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive, and a tropical depression could
form over the next couple of days while the low drifts
north-northwestward. By the weekend, interaction with land is
expected to limit further organization. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible
over the southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Oaxaca beginning tomorrow and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:58 pm

This is a dark horse to become the fourth tropical depression of the season and perhaps even TS Carlotta. ASCAT showed that there is a decent circulation already:
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:09 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 06/13/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 52 56 64 64 65 63 65
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 52 56 56 38 30 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 37 38 40 40 43 46 33 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 19 19 19 13 17 14 10 9 12 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 8 6 6 6 3 0 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 352 353 5 14 13 15 7 8 4 11 358 351 354
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.2 29.9 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 169 170 169 169 169 169 165 161 159
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 84 83 82 79 77 75 76 76 77 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 11 9 8 6 8
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -38 -29 -21 -23 -7 -13 13 29 83 69 97 75
200 MB DIV 92 113 113 97 92 77 55 29 47 65 55 57 32
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 514 503 497 483 450 337 202 103 -2 -109 -201 -259 -301
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.3 13.4 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.3 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.1 99.3 99.5 99.7 99.7 99.4 99.2 99.1 99.2 99.4 99.7 100.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 4 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 31 31 23 17 19 13 50 41 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 3. 2. -0. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 34. 34. 35. 33. 36.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 98.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:46 pm

:uarrow: Pretty bullish forecasts by SHIPS/LGEM.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:34 pm

A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to show signs of organization, however satellite
data show that the system does not currently have a well-defined
circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days while the low
moves slowly north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the
southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca
beginning tomorrow and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:39 am

A low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico is producing a large area of disturbed weather, however
satellite data show that the system does not currently have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be somewhat conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days while the low
moves slowly north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the
southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca
beginning tomorrow and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:39 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 53 60 65 66 67 69 71
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 53 60 65 55 39 31 28
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 44 49 45 34 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 11 10 11 12 14 17 12 8 11 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 4 8 5 5 6 2 3 -1 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 351 7 5 4 358 6 25 36 53 42 22 3 4
SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.6 30.3
POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 169 169 168 168 168 168 168 168 164
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 11 9 11 8 10
700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 82 80 76 73 72 72 74 74 77 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -32 -20 -21 -28 -21 -24 -19 -8 11 29 57 70 86
200 MB DIV 125 120 98 87 113 57 33 16 36 40 47 53 74
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 448 431 424 398 362 275 196 132 54 -15 -74 -129 -179
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.0 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.2 99.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 25 23 18 18 22 22 52 51 46 38

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 30. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 99.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:02 am

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
could form over the next day or so while the low moves slowly
northwestward near or over the coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rain causing flash floods and mudslides
is likely over the southern portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero and Oaxaca through the weekend. Potential tropical cyclone
advisories could be initiated on this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#13 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:52 am

I think this system might well surprise people and exceed some expectations, as Aletta and Bud recently did. The potential system is situated over some of the warmest and deepest oceanic heat content in the eastern North Pacific, and it is co-located with a region of strong atmospheric divergence, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and very high PWATs. The ECMWF consistently closes off a small vortex that intensifies rapidly as it nears and parallels the coast of Mexico. I think this has a good chance to become a Cat-1 or even borderline Cat-2 system prior to interacting with land, so long as it manages to develop a tight inner core, which conditions suggest is quite feasible. A good analog for this system, in terms of size, intensity, and track, might be Hurricane Carlos (2015).
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:27 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 53 60 63 64 65 67 69
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 53 60 63 64 65 44 33
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 41 46 51 56 60 42 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 13 13 14 16 13 12 10 11 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 2 1 5 2 4 -1 -1 1 -2
SHEAR DIR 354 347 350 358 360 28 31 49 48 36 31 35 45
SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 168 168 167 166 167 166 166 168 169 167 165
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 10 9 11 8 10 8 10 8
700-500 MB RH 85 81 78 76 74 71 70 69 71 71 71 69 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -12 -3 -14 -3 8 33 29 42 45 67 73
200 MB DIV 69 62 69 61 54 11 7 32 49 68 38 49 13
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0
LAND (KM) 223 166 138 127 111 95 91 92 92 62 3 -30 -111
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.4 100.7 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.0 100.8 100.8 100.8 101.2 101.8 102.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 2 2 0 1 0 1 3 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 24 25 26 26 25 25 25 11 46 45

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 23. 30. 33. 34. 35. 37. 39.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 100.1

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E: 11 AM PDT TWO=90%-90%-TD may be forming

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:29 pm

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure centered
about 120 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better
defined, and a tropical depression could be forming. If current
trends continue, advisories will be initiated this afternoon or
evening on this system. The low is expected to move slowly
northwestward near or over the coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days. The system is forecast to produce heavy rains, with
flash floods and mudslides likely over the southern portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:58 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 52 57 63 63 65 67 68
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 52 57 63 63 65 67 68
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 55 59 64 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 11 14 16 14 17 14 14 13 16 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 -1 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 340 329 349 2 15 40 49 53 44 30 32 49 68
SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3
POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 167 167 166 167 167 168 168 165 163 162
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9
700-500 MB RH 83 79 77 75 72 69 66 66 63 62 61 63 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 8 -1 -15 14 18 54 25 52 46 68 62
200 MB DIV 70 65 58 49 32 8 26 38 34 49 43 41 5
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 158 128 98 82 66 70 55 45 46 55 6 4 4
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 1 0
HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 25 26 26 26 24 24 21 11 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 33. 35. 37. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 100.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:03 pm

FV3, GFS, and ECMWF all develop this into a weak meandering TS offshore. SHIPS and LGEM are way too bullish here.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#18 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:36 pm

now a depression
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:41 pm

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Overnight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the
system was open on the northwestern side. High-resolution GOES-16
1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a
well-enough defined circulation center. Since there is plenty of
banded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical
depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the
overnight scatterometer data.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/5 kt. A weak
mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow,
leaving the depression in an area of light steering currents. Much
of the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of
Mexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn
northward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf
of Mexico. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this
poleward motion, however, with the UKMET, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models
faster than the rest of the guidance. This seems like a pretty
clear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak
steering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model
over another one. Thus, the official forecast shows a slow
northward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and
it should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is
subject to large changes in the future.

The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a
few swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger
gyre. After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with
very warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady
intensification. This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is
so close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening. The
official forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance
and the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model
consensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike
the official prediction), leading to a stronger storm.

It has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season.
This is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the
basin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind
the previous record in 1974.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:42 pm

:uarrow: wow, that little bit in the discussion. Very active start so far, can it continue??
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