ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:04 pm

Should be labeled 92L, but using 95L for now to prevent confusion

Invest 95L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 03, 2018:

Location: 9.0°N 30.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L

#2 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:20 pm

Wait, this is for the wave off Africa? I thought it was the low in the central Atlantic. Interesting that it's an invest since it hasn't been mentioned in the outlooks at all. Is this an error?
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:54 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Wait, this is for the wave off Africa? I thought it was the low in the central Atlantic. Interesting that it's an invest since it hasn't been mentioned in the outlooks at all. Is this an error?

The wave is located around 9N 31W now. I don't think it's an error that it is an Invest, but the numbering may be an error. Expecting an imminent mention in the 8 PM TWO.
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ATL: BERYL - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:56 pm

Model runs only.

GFS has a Tropical Storm.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:09 pm

A vigorous tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over
the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:47 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:06 pm

NotSparta wrote:Should be labeled 92L, but using 95L for now to prevent confusion




It's not working because I'm confused! :lol: :?: 95L?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:23 pm

Pretty impressive

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:31 pm

Early season Cape Verde action? Good luck getting anywhere in the cooler waters out there. SST's are like 25C right now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby Fego » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:36 pm

Imho, The longer is shown as 95L, so is the confussion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Early season Cape Verde action? Good luck getting anywhere in the cooler waters out there. SST's are like 25C right now?


It's in 26-27°C waters right now but has favorable thermodynamics with SHIPS showing 200mb temperatures around -55°C
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:43 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2018070400, , BEST, 0, 93N, 320W, 25, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:53 pm

I think SHIP is over agressive.

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:57 pm

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL952018  07/04/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LGEM       25    28    30    34    37    44    51    58    66    71    69    64    59
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     5     8    11    10    11     6     5     3    16    19    27    30
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     2     2     0     0    -2     3     2     5     3     2     2    -1
SHEAR DIR         68    29    35    70    86    74    89     2   295   300   285   288   276
SST (C)         27.0  26.6  26.6  26.6  26.7  25.7  26.6  26.8  26.8  26.4  26.6  27.1  27.7
POT. INT. (KT)   126   122   122   122   123   113   121   122   122   119   122   128   136
ADJ. POT. INT.   130   124   124   123   125   112   120   119   118   116   120   129   137
200 MB T (C)   -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       2     2     2     3     3     3     4     4     6     6     8     8    10
700-500 MB RH     76    74    70    68    68    63    62    61    60    62    58    57    53
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    11    12    13    16    16    16    15    15    13    11     8
850 MB ENV VOR    50    46    39    35    47    62    59    55    34     7    -3   -16   -38
200 MB DIV        66    51    32    47    54   -20   -24   -20    14     3    -7    -6   -17
700-850 TADV      -6    -6    -7    -6    -7    -8    -4     0     5     8     0     1     7
LAND (KM)       1690  1831  1907  1774  1635  1362  1142   996   943   945  1000   823   728
LAT (DEG N)      9.3   9.6  10.1  10.5  10.7  11.0  11.1  11.3  12.0  13.1  14.5  15.7  17.3
LONG(DEG W)     32.0  33.5  34.9  36.4  37.9  41.0  43.7  46.0  47.7  49.7  52.1  55.3  58.9
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    15    15    15    14    12    10    10    12    15    18    19
HEAT CONTENT       1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     6    12    12     2     9

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  534  (MEAN=619)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            6.6

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   1.   4.   8.  13.  18.  21.  25.  27.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.  11.  10.   9.   6.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   7.   9.  10.  10.   9.   8.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.  -2.  -5.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  12.  17.  27.  34.  43.  48.  51.  50.  49.  47.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:    9.3    32.0

      ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST     07/04/18  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    5.0    -49.5  to   38.5        0.62           5.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :    7.8     30.1  to    2.3        0.80           3.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :    0.2      0.0  to  157.3        0.00           0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   11.7     36.6  to    2.8        0.74           2.7
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.4      2.9  to   -2.9        0.57           2.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.07           0.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   90.2    893.2  to  -67.1        0.84           2.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   99.2     28.4  to  141.4        0.63           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   50.0    -29.7  to  185.9        0.37           0.2
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    1.5    100.0  to    0.0        0.99           0.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   6% is   1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     6.3%   20.5%   17.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    10.0%   27.9%   21.5%   11.1%    4.1%   10.3%    3.6%    1.6%
    Bayesian:     2.7%    4.0%    2.6%    0.3%    0.2%    2.8%    6.5%    0.1%
   Consensus:     6.4%   17.5%   13.7%    3.8%    1.4%    4.4%    3.4%    0.6%
       DTOPS:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST     07/04/2018  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
 18HR AGO           25    24    28    32    37    47    54    63    68    71    70    69    67
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    25    30    40    47    56    61    64    63    62    60
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    20    30    37    46    51    54    53    52    50
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:14 pm

Uh, it isn't August is it? Wow, good looking invest for a CV this early. :grr:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:17 pm

that is a healthy looking invest right now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#17 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL952018  07/04/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LGEM       25    28    30    34    37    44    51    58    66    71    69    64    59
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

~snip~


Seems that SHIPS intensity is too high with invests?
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:51 pm

Won't look so impressive once it begins to separate from the ITCZ in a day or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:53 pm

Not sure how it's intensifying the system as RH decreases :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:56 pm

NotSparta wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL952018  07/04/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    37    42    52    59    68    73    76    75    74    72
V (KT) LGEM       25    28    30    34    37    44    51    58    66    71    69    64    59
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

~snip~


Seems that SHIPS intensity is too high with invests?

I think that is because SHIPS assumes a tropical cyclone already exists. SHIPS intensity guidance is very poor for invests.
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NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.


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