ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#801 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:41 am

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and
extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions
could become a little more favorable later in the week while the
disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The
previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#802 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:09 am

Has a decent amount of convection this morning, definitely has a shot at redevelopment over the next couple of days

Image
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#803 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:49 am

Looks like a decent vortical hot tower fired overnight.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#804 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:55 am

Good rotation 500 to 700mb layer

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Some west winds on ASCAT

Image
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#805 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:00 am

Looks like Chris is entraining some SAL.
East side of the remnants of Beryl being effected by it.

Image
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#806 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:17 am

Surface obs in the vicinity of Beryl's remnants do not indicate any LLC. Pressure 1018-1020mb, which is relatively high. Slight chance it may develop an LLC as it passes west of Bermuda Friday night. Environment won't be favorable for much strengthening that far north. It may be attached to a cold front, too. No U.S. East Coast threat.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#807 Postby lrak » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:34 pm

GCANE wrote:Looks like Chris is entraining some SAL.
East side of the remnants of Beryl being effected by it.

Image


Does the SAL every reach the US and do we breath that stuff? Yuck!
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#808 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:49 pm

The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas
and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few
hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but
conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week
and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information
on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#809 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:35 pm

Still nothing at the surface and fairly high pressures in the area.

Image
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#810 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:58 pm

A lot of deep convection firing off for a prolonged period of time over a constant area.
Creating a lot of latent heating at the mid to higher levels.
The kind of stuff that develops a solid warm core.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#811 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:49 pm

Looks like a circulation may be forming near 31N/71W.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#812 Postby djones65 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:14 pm

Just in case anyone is interested in tropical cyclone climatology....
Please go to NHC's archive directory and find the storm wallet directory... Then go to the cdmp subdirectory....
You will see numerous entries from the mid 1960's and forward.

But the reason I am posting this is for you to look up 1982 Beryl...

Please peruse the satellite imagery posted? If so, you will find an eerily similar satellite presentation of 1982 Beryl in 28 August 1982 southeast of the now Cabo Verde Islands as our most recent Beryl appeared about 700 miles southwest of said islands...
You will see an eye, or at least eye-like feature, but with 1982 resolution probably would easily be classified same as a strong cat 1 hurricane.

Personally, with our archaic, compared to now methods of estimating intensity, and its UN-climatological location, probably left forecasters befuddled.

Thus, it was never assigned hurricane status thusfar, but perhaps when HURDAT gets to it, may more accurately assess it as a hurricane. As I believe it deserves.

I just thought it was anecdotal interest!
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#813 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:28 am

Here's what David is talking about.

NHC Data Archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Storm Wallet Scanning Project: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#wallet

View All Years and press Go: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/

Click on CDMP: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/

You'll have to navigate to Beryl 1982 and then SATPIC. I see some similarities but it doesn't look as strong. David, is there a particular image you can reference?
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#814 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:06 am

tolakram wrote:Here's what David is talking about.

NHC Data Archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Storm Wallet Scanning Project: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#wallet

View All Years and press Go: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/

Click on CDMP: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/

You'll have to navigate to Beryl 1982 and then SATPIC. I see some similarities but it doesn't look as strong. David, is there a particular image you can reference?


Try this one. I'll just post the URL as the image is quite large. 1982 was my third season working here in Houston. Back then, we didn't get satellite images on a computer monitor. Heck, we didn't really have computers. We had a text editor with a small monitor that displayed only green text. Sat pics came over a printer. I believe the original image resolution may have been 8km, but some detail was lost in printing. This 1982 Beryl was much larger than the 2018 Beryl.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/dvd0135-jpg/1982/atlantic/beryl/satpic/s08281131z.jpg
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#815 Postby lrak » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:25 am

You can sure see a swirl of low clouds now. Lots of shear.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#816 Postby Siker » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:47 am

I'm surprised they lowered development chances so much. All of the globals develop this into a closed sub-1010mb low in the next 36 hours. Does the NHC feel it will be extratropical by then?
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#817 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:28 pm

Beryl's back up to 30/30, if that matters.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#818 Postby lrak » Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:25 pm

If that was in the central Gulf of Mexico..... :roll: It sure looks closed to me.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#819 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:24 pm

Not sure why this isn't deserving of at least a subtropical designation.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#820 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:36 pm

Hammy wrote:Not sure why this isn't deserving of at least a subtropical designation.

It would probably be classified if it were in the Gulf of Mexico in June.
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