ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#621 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:56 pm

Kind of predictable LOL..

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#622 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:59 pm

So whaddya guys think about this recently formed convection over Beryl's CoC? Will it last?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#623 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:33 pm

abajan wrote:So whaddya guys think about this recently formed convection over Beryl's CoC? Will it last?


Still extremely dry air to the northwest, the shear would have to remain almost zero for a long time to redevelop a moisture envelope. Just shows there is still a tiny core able to pump convection at night when there is cooler air aloft.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#624 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:34 pm

Nimbus wrote:Kind of predictable LOL..

Image

:eek: bursting suddenly in that unfavorable area waouw. Let's continue to keep an eye on. Nasty Beryl. :roll:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#625 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:07 pm

GCANE wrote:And Kelvin said: "Let there be convection over the naked swirl"
He saw the dry slot to the NW and it was not good for development.
So, he created convection to fill in the mid-layer with moisture.
He allowed CAPE to increase ahead of Beryl's path.
And the morning and evening were the fourth day.


Kelvin giveth, then Kelvin taketh away...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#626 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:43 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#627 Postby Twisted-core » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:36 pm

Image
Sal + shear claimed it many hours ago.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#628 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:04 pm

Honestly, given how vicious the SAL plume has been the last few weeks, I'm impressed Beryl lasted as long as it did in the MDR.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Recon

#629 Postby sgastorm » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:14 pm

BZSTORM wrote:I see on http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium there are currently 2 untasked flights in the Caribbean basin - question is are they getting into position to fly Beryl tomorrow or sampling the area inside the Caribbean island chain? AF302 - Lockheed WC-130J Hercules is currently West of Jamaica and AF301 - Lockheed WC-130J Hercules appears to be heading towards Aruba. Anyone know what they are doing?

They are positioning the planes for the missions into Beryl.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#630 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten


Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the
center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little
since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial
intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt.

The initial motion is 290/16. A strong low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly
west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance
is in excellent agreement on this. So, the new track forecast is an
update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the
track guidance envelope.

Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl
during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a
drier and more stable air mass. Based on this, the official
intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl
forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the
Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just
after 36 h. It should be noted that the official forecast is based
on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to
partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken
to a wave sooner than currently forecast. However, it should also
be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands
and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some
islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind
and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in
effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.1N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.0N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.6N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#631 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:43 am

yeah figured this would happen given the distribution of SAL and dry air this morning. the dry air has been cut off and the system is working out the SAL. could easily see a moderate TS going through the islands tomorrow..
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#632 Postby StruThiO » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:20 am

Image

huge burst of deep convection. making the center less exposed
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#633 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:31 am

StruThiO wrote:Image

huge burst of deep convection. making the center less exposed


Center is under convection

Could be shear induced though
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Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#634 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:09 am

This type of system can be wild for recon though. It would be a very bumpy ride right now...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#635 Postby StruThiO » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:32 am

lol raw T# value has doubled in the last 2 hours from this burst alone
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#636 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:55 am

I guess we'll see if it's maintained past dmax, could certainly help halt the weakening trend long enough to stay a coherent system into the eastern Caribbean if the SAL is mixed out enough.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#637 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:30 am

Oh ye of little faith - those that stoneth the prophets.

That was pretty much a massive vortical hot tower.
We got some real rain rate now.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#638 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:37 am

Core structure actually looks decent.
Warm anomaly high up centered around 200mb.
Pretty deep inversion below 500mb.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#639 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:39 am

I think that is pretty much it for the dry-air intrusion.
Going to be walking into some massive moist air.

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#640 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:43 am

Gotta be one of the brightest pink spots I have ever seen.
If that was a donut, it would be a killer.

Image
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