ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#681 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:55 am

:uarrow: lol.. NHC is bending the rule.. "Could have" reformed.

Oh yeah I get that
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#682 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:02 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: lol.. NHC is bending the rule.. "Could have" reformed.

Oh yeah I get that


The name at the bottom of the NHC advisory is a clue. Stacey Stewart is the most liberal of the NHC forecasters (not in a political sense). The question comes down to what best serves the general public. Again, if it's impossible to alert the islanders about possible tropical storm-force winds in squalls without having a named storm approaching, then what happens when the next strong wave approaches? Call it a TS because it might generate a circulation? Surely forecasters there can just tell the people to watch for gusty wind and heavy rain in a passing tropical wave without it having a name.

This kind of thing makes it hard on private weather companies why typically deal with more weather-savvy emergency managers and refinery operators. To some, something called a tropical storm could strengthen into a hurricane, necessitating a very costly shutdown. We have to explain to them that it's not REALLY a tropical storm but it could produce tropical storm-force winds as it moves past.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#683 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:05 am

So what rules are we talking about that apply to the NHC?

You know how I dislike these man made rules that don't really serve the public that well. :)
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#684 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:06 am

wxman57 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:I wonder if they can use the PTC designation here, since it may not be a TC, but warnings need to be issued


Do warnings need to be issued? Many strong tropical waves impact the islands each season with some winds to tropical storm strength in squalls (but no circulation). How are those waves handled without NHC advisories? I'm still doubtful that the NHC will downgrade Beryl just because it lost its circulation.


Sorry, worded it badly. The NHC seems to want to issue warnings here, but there's a possibility Beryl isn't a TC. Thus the PTC designation would work well in this case
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#685 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:11 am

I think they did the right thing, If a possible new circulation exists and they've
still have warnings up there is no reason to downgrade it at the moment.

It avoids confusion,and really does not matter to anybody but weather weanies like us :D
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#686 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:13 am

I have been doing this for a long time. I have stated this on several occasions on this forum and I feel the need to do it again to say this about the NHC.

I have tremendous respect and admiration for the job the experts perform and execute down at the National Hurricane Center. It is an awesome duty and challenge forecasting tropical cyclones, which I know firsthand. Now, although I disagree with their decisions at times, like this one with Beryl, I recognize that their number one objective is awareness and safety to the public.

Again, I give major kudos to the hard working experts down at NHC. They are the very best at what they do!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#687 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:46 am

Looks like mid-level shear is settling down some just before the islands.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#688 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:51 am

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#689 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:23 am

do look like their circulation under area strong storm if look at loop on link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_02L_201807081606.jpg?14.1303.1
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#690 Postby syryquil » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:28 am

The GFS and NAVGEM both now also redevelop, but the ECMWF no longer does.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#691 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:42 am

floridasun78 wrote:do look like their circulation under area strong storm if look at loop on link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_02L_201807081606.jpg?14.1303.1



Historically Beryl has been a frequently sheared sheep running naked most of the time, hasn't quite run out from under the convection today which does break the pattern. TS winds may not extend 20 miles from the center if at all so there is even a chance the LLC will pass south of just one Island close enough to report those gusts. Forecast is for ex Beryl to be just a rack of Lamb in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#692 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:01 pm

Nimbus wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:do look like their circulation under area strong storm if look at loop on link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_02L_201807081606.jpg?14.1303.1



Historically Beryl has been a frequently sheared sheep running naked most of the time, hasn't quite run out from under the convection today which does break the pattern. TS winds may not extend 20 miles from the center if at all so there is even a chance the LLC will pass south of just one Island close enough to report those gusts. Forecast is for ex Beryl to be just a rack of Lamb in the Caribbean.

i reading we coluld see other system form beryl next few days east of bahamas
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#693 Postby syryquil » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:08 pm

And I forgot to check before but UKMet also redevelops.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#694 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:14 pm

EURO has performed poorly overall with Beryl and also the formation of Chris.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#695 Postby stormreader » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:00 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I have been doing this for a long time. I have stated this on several occasions on this forum and I feel the need to do it again to say this about the NHC.

I have tremendous respect and admiration for the job the experts perform and execute down at the National Hurricane Center. It is an awesome duty and challenge forecasting tropical cyclones, which I know firsthand. Now, although I disagree with their decisions at times, like this one with Beryl, I recognize that their number one objective is awareness and safety to the public.

Again, I give major kudos to the hard working experts down at NHC. They are the very best at what they do!

Right now, it looks like a large and mean looking open wave. Gonna be very strong t-storms moving through the islands. Gonna have that “rush effect” associated with a quick moving oncoming system. May have a larger scale and scope with trop winds than you would if you had your standard 45-50 mph organized trop storm. So they leave the trop storm designation. Gonna be bad weather in islands from this open wave.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#696 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:13 pm

the circ is very evident right now as it is exposed. .. and looking over recon earlier they were flying in the area.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Advisories

#697 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:14 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
200 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

...DISORGANIZED BERYL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 59.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...42 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#698 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:37 pm

Now a wave

AL, 02, 2018070818, , BEST, 0, 148N, 592W, 40, 1007, WV
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#699 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:Now a wave

AL, 02, 2018070818, , BEST, 0, 148N, 592W, 40, 1007, WV


lol its not a wave yet.. but either way same effects
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm

#700 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:39 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
:uarrow: Yes indeed. I was just getting ready to state this myself. Rightfully and correctly designated this system as an open wave. Still no definitive closed circulation verified.
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