ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#761 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:23 pm

There's a good deal of latent vorticity with this wave. No doubt a spin south of P.R. is evident and am guessing it's near surface to possibly 850mb level? GFS ensembles are not at all bullish with only a few showing a possible low just north of E. Cuba in about 3 days. What I think might be key to look for, is a bit more of a general west to WNW motion of the entire wave and not any particular vorticity spin up that might pop up (there may well be multiple). I think any potential for reformation is apt to occur at "that point" if and where conditions might become a bit more conducive. Sure, that may well occur somewhere in the far S.E. Bahamas or S.S.E of the Carolina's..... but I don't think we should write off the possibility of regeneration at some point along its southern axis perhaps as far south as around Jamaica in the days to come. Right now there's absolutely no model support to indicate that but then again I'm not finding models particularly effective with small scale meso development either.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#762 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:47 pm

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The disturbance is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging
over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should
prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for
regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the
system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the
western Atlantic. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


Image

Image
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#763 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:49 pm

This is what Puerto Rico is dealing with.Flash floodings,some mudslides and gusty winds in the order of 35-40 mph with isolated reports of 45 mph.There have been some power outages in parts of the island but so far where I am is with it.

@NWSSanJuan
CAUTION! Thunderstorms with torrential rainfall & strong gusty winds to continue especially over eastern half of PR.


 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1016379455462395904


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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#764 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:57 pm

floridasun78 wrote:let see what happen by thur


Nah, Bone already has spoken. :wink:
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#765 Postby redneck51 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:27 pm

Most of the rains are gone, here in Eastern PR.

Around 50,000 houses/customers in PR without power because of Beryl so far - we're lucky power never went.
Just imagine how many would have been without power if this would have been a TS or worse...
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#766 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:59 pm

looks like there is another circ developing south of the mona Passage.

though because of land coming up it wont survive.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#767 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:41 pm

The remnants of Beryl are producing strong gusty winds and areas of
heavy rain over the north-central Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. This system is expected to move west-
northwestward across Hispaniola overnight and Tuesday with little
development expected during that time due to land interaction and
unfavorable upper-level winds. A turn to the northwest and then
north is expected to begin by Tuesday night taking the system
across the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration of
a tropical cyclone Wednesday night and Thursday when the system is
forecast to be near or north of the Bahamas. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over
portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move
through those areas. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#768 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:22 pm

Hmmm.... sat and radar are looking pretty interesting.. the whole system has really slowed down.. does appear something is trying to work back to the surface.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#769 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Hmmm.... sat and radar are looking pretty interesting.. the whole system has really slowed down.. does appear something is trying to work back to the surface.


I know a lot else has to do with a cyclone being born again so to say but a hot tower is now beginning where the last visible showed some sort of surface circulation..... :?:
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#770 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:06 pm

Looking pretty impressive on radar, might warrant more warnings?

After looking a little closer, I doubt that the vigorous MLC is align with any surface circulation.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#771 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:10 pm

tailgater wrote:Looking pretty impressive on radar, might warrant more warnings?


I wonder if the area that was over Santo Domingo this morning is already approaching the Bahamas :eek: two areas to watch
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#772 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:25 pm

Parts of Puerto Rico are getting billions of gallons or would that be trillions? :double: stay safe cycloneye family and friends
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#773 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:41 pm

lrak wrote:Parts of Puerto Rico are getting billions of gallons or would that be trillions? :double: stay safe cycloneye family and friends


im down in brownsville.. for the week again.. dry as a bone ..
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#774 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:Parts of Puerto Rico are getting billions of gallons or would that be trillions? :double: stay safe cycloneye family and friends


im down in brownsville.. for the week again.. dry as a bone ..


You predicted this and it looks like it might happen. Enjoy your weekend.....TRY surfing even if it's on a sponge board. You're 35 dagnabbit. The water will be blue and you'll have fun I promise. You always see Dolphins (Porpoise) for S TX which means no sharks around. They do not get along :D Whoops "The Gulf of Mexico and surrounding waters are home to a variety of Dolphin species, but we do not have Porpoise in our waters." I was mistaken we have Dolphin in the Gulf not Porpoise but every time you see them catch a swell it's nice. Man Puerto Rico is being deluged by waves of rain. :cry:
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#775 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:19 am

Only the ICON model does anything with the remnants. That’s not good odds. Looks like some of the globals want to absorb the energy around the western edge of the Atlantic high and into the tail behind Chris. NAM wants to sort of indicate something closing off Friday east of NC. That remains to be seen.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#776 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:02 am

The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over portions of central and eastern Hispaniola, and the
adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over
the southeastern Bahamas this evening. Little development is
expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and
unfavorable upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to turn
northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a
tropical cyclone later this week. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of
Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through
those areas. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#777 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:56 am

So, being that Beryl has been clearly wrecked and having zero discernible low or mid level COC, would reformation somewhere East of the Bahamas initiate advisories for "Debby" or merely bring Beryl back from the grave :lol: ?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Recon

#778 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:29 pm

There are two missions on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

Code: Select all

 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 11/1800Z                   A. 12/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0202A INVEST         B. AFXXX 0302A BERYL
       C. 11/1500Z                   C. 12/0845Z
       D. 24.0N 76.0W                D. 26.5N 76.0W
       E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2200Z       E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#779 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:47 pm

The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward
across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. Little development is expected during the
next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level
winds. However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could
become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical
cyclone later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and
the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of BERYL

#780 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:51 pm

Take a look at about 21.8 N and 71.0 W. Looks like we're seeing where a MLC may be trying to take shape. Time will tell if this feature will persist and even work it's way to the surface. Right now though I'd say this looks like a reasonable point for ex-Beryl (or future Chris?) to develop.
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