ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 813
Age: 18
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: Oak Hill, TX (Southwest Austin)
Contact:

ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:48 am

Am a little surprised at the attention this system has been getting, but nonetheless an INVEST classification has been designated on the non-tropical low southwest of Bermuda. Located in a region of high ambient pressures, the pressure given for this system is a rather high 1021 millibars.

AL, 96, 2018070506, , BEST, 0, 308N, 684W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al962018,
AL, 96, 2018070512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 697W, 20, 1021, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1022, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service/RSMC.
- Stop by and chat on Storm2K's IRC channel (#storm2k on irc.esper.net, or click here)

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 96L

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:49 am

Just needs to develop some convection if it wants to develop into TD 3.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#3 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:58 am

Interesting how the chances have gone down before being given an invest number.
1 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:14 am

Odd, I wasn't expecting this ever since the percentages started going down. I wonder if they'll go back up?
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114733
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:43 pm

A weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development through the end of the week while the system
moves west-northwestward and then northward at about 10 mph off the
coast of North Carolina. The low is forecast to interact with a
frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3767
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#6 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:39 pm

Upper air conditions seem favorable but this isn't producing any convection--is it too dry, or too stable?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#7 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:18 pm

Hammy wrote:Upper air conditions seem favorable but this isn't producing any convection--is it too dry, or too stable?


Dry air. RH is below 50%.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:30 pm

Up to 40/50%
ABNT20 KNHC 052325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean
more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between
the southeastern United States and Bermuda continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development through the end
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward and
then northward off the coast of North Carolina. The low could
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Siker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#9 Postby Siker » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:34 pm

Notice they changed it to "could interact with a frontal system on Sunday", reflecting the the GFS, UKMET, CMC, and EURO depicting the trough leaving 96L behind for a few days.
2 likes   

Weather150
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 187
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm

ATL: CHRIS - Models

#10 Postby Weather150 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:09 pm

Image
00z GFS stronger with 96L.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114733
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:18 pm

Siker,you were spot on.

Siker wrote:Notice they changed it to "could interact with a frontal system on Sunday", reflecting the the GFS, UKMET, CMC, and EURO depicting the trough leaving 96L behind for a few days.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Siker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby Siker » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:32 pm

00z UKMET, showing it lingering off the East Coast before getting kicked out by the next trough (and greatly intensifying at that point):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 33.4N 74.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2018 48 33.6N 75.1W 1014 32
1200UTC 08.07.2018 60 33.7N 74.7W 1015 34
0000UTC 09.07.2018 72 33.0N 74.2W 1011 34
1200UTC 09.07.2018 84 33.6N 74.1W 1008 36
0000UTC 10.07.2018 96 33.9N 74.3W 1004 42
1200UTC 10.07.2018 108 34.7N 74.6W 999 52
0000UTC 11.07.2018 120 35.0N 72.9W 989 56
1200UTC 11.07.2018 132 36.6N 69.4W 976 67
0000UTC 12.07.2018 144 40.1N 64.7W 962 77
3 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6363
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:15 am

06Z GFS intensifies this as a major 965 mb TC just off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in 132 hours.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114733
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:19 am

00z Euro is like UKMET.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

shiny-pebble
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:38 am

Chris already? GFS tends to be the doomsday model. They have a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3. Euro has a minimal tropical storm going out to sea. GFS has it riding up the coast of the Carolinas while intensifying and almost stationary as a Cat 2.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#16 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:06 am

Convection popping this morning. Could be a sneaky "homegrown" storm that passes very close to the east coast. Looking increasingly likely that 96L becomes Chris in a few days.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

shiny-pebble
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#17 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:37 am

Now up to 70 for 48 hours and 80 for 5 days

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114733
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:39 am

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and
stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the
weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina
coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5509
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#19 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:47 am

If the GFS is correct this could very well be our next hurricane. If that happens that would put CSU and TCR at risk with their number of four hurricanes this season likely being too low.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6363
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Discussion

#20 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:48 am

This system just could really intensify quickly. We may be seeing a potential very significant TC in the making. It will be meandering in an area around the Gulf Stream for the next few days in a conducive upper level envriroment. We could be looking at interesting times for those along the Mid Atlantic coast, especially the next 72-94 hours.
2 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 2 guests