ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#221 Postby USTropics » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:52 pm

The convective burst in the SE quadrant has helped choke off some of the dry air intrusion, and coupled with an expansion of moisture towards the CONUS/SW, Chris should be experiencing gradual strengthening for the next 24-36 hours. You can see this evolution below:

Image
loop - https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

Also some cool images/loop of the large SAL plume that ex Beryl is currently on the fringe of with Chris from a few hours ago (you can find these images with the GOES-16 GeoColor band loop below):
Image
loop - https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=taw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#222 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:54 pm

Second pass comming.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#223 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:15 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 091909
AF306 0803A CHRIS HDOB 29 20180709
185930 3236N 07355W 8430 01558 0089 +167 +121 137040 041 032 000 00
190000 3235N 07357W 8433 01555 0090 +162 +122 137042 042 032 000 00
190030 3234N 07358W 8429 01553 0080 +171 +123 137042 042 034 001 00
190100 3233N 07359W 8435 01544 0081 +160 +125 139042 043 037 000 00
190130 3232N 07401W 8430 01545 0077 +160 +126 140044 044 036 000 00
190200 3231N 07402W 8425 01545 0064 +173 +125 144047 048 036 000 00
190230 3230N 07403W 8429 01538 0062 +167 +124 140047 047 037 001 00
190300 3229N 07405W 8433 01529 0060 +161 +125 140046 047 038 000 00
190330 3228N 07406W 8427 01530 0053 +163 +125 139048 049 039 000 03
190400 3226N 07407W 8430 01520 0043 +170 +125 139048 048 039 000 00
190430 3225N 07409W 8434 01511 0039 +166 +125 139047 049 038 000 00
190500 3224N 07410W 8430 01508 0027 +174 +126 139048 049 038 000 00
190530 3223N 07411W 8432 01501 0013 +185 +128 142041 046 038 000 00
190600 3222N 07413W 8428 01499 0006 +186 +129 143042 044 038 001 00
190630 3221N 07414W 8431 01489 0002 +179 +131 147042 044 037 001 00
190700 3220N 07415W 8429 01484 9998 +173 +133 148039 040 032 000 00
190730 3219N 07417W 8426 01479 9995 +165 +134 147032 038 032 000 00
190800 3218N 07418W 8431 01470 9980 +184 +135 148015 029 030 002 00
190830 3217N 07420W 8440 01461 9967 +203 +134 148009 011 021 001 00
190900 3216N 07421W 8428 01473 9972 +195 +134 106010 010 017 000 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#224 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:18 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Cracked core like this symbols dry air intrusion within the core. Its gonna have to reset.

https://i.imgur.com/IN6DD14.jpg


dry air is an excuse that is overstated on this forum.

This is a clear case of upwelling. Water temps may be in the low 20s C at this point


If upwelling was the main issue, wouldn't we see convection racing outwards to areas with higher SST's?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#226 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:19 pm

Alyono wrote:now the EC totally drops this


Apparently, the Euro is performing as poorly as the GFS this year.
Maybe we should give an award for the best performing model for 2018.
Who knows maybe the Canadian or (God forbid) the Navgem might win. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#227 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:22 pm

HWRF showing some dramatic upwelling:

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#228 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:25 pm

Flight level wind of 73.

000
URNT15 KNHC 091919
AF306 0803A CHRIS HDOB 30 20180709
190930 3215N 07423W 8426 01473 9969 +196 +137 093012 013 011 000 00
191000 3215N 07425W 8429 01472 9974 +187 +139 094012 014 008 000 00
191030 3214N 07427W 8428 01470 9976 +181 +141 082010 011 008 000 03
191100 3212N 07428W 8479 01416 9971 +188 +143 074007 009 010 000 00
191130 3211N 07428W 8422 01472 9967 +188 +145 080004 007 008 000 00
191200 3209N 07428W 8436 01456 9966 +185 +146 190000 004 008 000 00
191230 3208N 07428W 8429 01463 9964 +187 +146 248003 004 010 000 03
191300 3206N 07429W 8422 01467 9963 +184 +147 311003 004 008 000 00
191330 3205N 07430W 8428 01460 9960 +189 +148 330008 010 008 000 00
191400 3204N 07432W 8433 01455 9961 +187 +149 307012 015 011 000 00
191430 3203N 07433W 8431 01457 9966 +179 +150 307021 025 021 000 03
191500 3201N 07434W 8432 01459 9970 +175 +150 309031 035 030 003 00
191530 3200N 07435W 8434 01461 9975 +176 +150 307036 040 034 012 00
191600 3159N 07436W 8439 01464 9991 +153 +147 312043 047 055 035 00
191630 3157N 07437W 8434 01475 0008 +145 +141 307059 064 052 038 00
191700 3156N 07438W 8429 01492 0024 +140 +134 305062 065 056 014 03
191730 3155N 07439W 8432 01500 0038 +141 +125 305061 064 056 015 03
191800 3153N 07440W 8418 01522 0049 +142 +118 306065 068 059 021 03
191830 3152N 07441W 8431 01520 0065 +135 +114 302071 073 053 019 03
191900 3150N 07442W 8436 01522 0076 +132 +109 302068 072 054 027 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#229 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Cracked core like this symbols dry air intrusion within the core. Its gonna have to reset.

https://i.imgur.com/IN6DD14.jpg


dry air is an excuse that is overstated on this forum.

This is a clear case of upwelling. Water temps may be in the low 20s C at this point


If upwelling was the main issue, wouldn't we see convection racing outwards to areas with higher SST's?


Based on the recon drop it appears SST's are around 25C under the core of Chris. It's not sitting on top of the Gulf Stream so upwelling is definitely contributing to the struggles but also dry air has played a part as well. Recon did just find some 70-72kt FL winds so it might be enough to get this upgraded to a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#230 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#231 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:27 pm

Well despite the organizational changes since last night, it hasn't stopped Chris from strengthening. Recon shows that it's almost a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#232 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:38 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Well despite the organizational changes since last night, it hasn't stopped Chris from strengthening. Recon shows that it's almost a hurricane.


Looks like it's still got a bit to go--there weren't any unflagged winds over 55kt or so, so the flight winds aren't making it down to the surface yet.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#233 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:42 pm

VDM confirms the 73kt.

000
URNT12 KNHC 091929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/19:12:00Z
B. 32.20 deg N 074.50 deg W
C. 850 mb 1387 m
D. 997 mb
E. 035 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C14
H. 39 kt
I. 050 deg 24 nm 19:04:00Z
J. 139 deg 49 kt
K. 050 deg 21 nm 19:05:00Z
L. 55 kt
M. 219 deg 12 nm 19:16:00Z
N. 302 deg 73 kt
O. 217 deg 20 nm 19:18:30Z
P. 17 C / 1520 m
Q. 19 C / 1524 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 1234 / 08
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 0803A CHRIS OB 13
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 302 / 73 NM 19:18:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 048 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#234 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:44 pm

VDM confirms the 73 kt wind.

000
URNT12 KNHC 091929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/19:12:00Z
B. 32.20 deg N 074.50 deg W
C. 850 mb 1387 m
D. 997 mb
E. 035 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C14
H. 39 kt
I. 050 deg 24 nm 19:04:00Z
J. 139 deg 49 kt
K. 050 deg 21 nm 19:05:00Z
L. 55 kt
M. 219 deg 12 nm 19:16:00Z
N. 302 deg 73 kt
O. 217 deg 20 nm 19:18:30Z
P. 17 C / 1520 m
Q. 19 C / 1524 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 1234 / 08
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 0803A CHRIS OB 13
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 302 / 73 NM 19:18:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 048 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#235 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:45 pm

:uarrow:

Upgrade next advisory?
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#236 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:46 pm

My guess is NHC will probably go with 60 knots for the 5 pm advisory since there is yet to be a SFMR reading of anywhere close to hurricane force.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#237 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:58 pm

Well, it does appear that it will be an in close year. It really looked rather sickly and dried out this am.
Now it seems to be cranking up. Thank God it’s not coming this way.
If this did come this way it would be a logistical nightmare for the EOC.
Simply couldn’t evac because of the time frame.
Couple hundred thousand people stuck on a sand bar.
Clear skies all day here and beautiful. Outer bands visible now and creeping north.
It is unique to witness the outer bands and know that it won't come your way.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Advisories

#238 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:53 pm

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data
this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has
improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened
some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the
southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR
surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased
to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased
to 60 kt for this advisory.

NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today
indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for
the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours
or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the
subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected. However, by 36
hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S.
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out
Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward
acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to
move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5
as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern
Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance
continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed
differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close
to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45
percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning
to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new
15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central
convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The
well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with
SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act
to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be
gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a
hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak
intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by
48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and
southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72
hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and
within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer
trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful
extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in
about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a
cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical
transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update
of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE,
which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 32.2N 74.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 34.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 36.1N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 42.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 48.3N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 52.0N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#239 Postby Kazmit » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:00 pm

Structure looks a bit better now that it's mixing out the dry air. Could become a decent hurricane if upwelling isn't too much of an issue.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#240 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:13 pm

Can't say I've seen them openly use rain-contaminated data before.

A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the
southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR
surface winds of 53-59 kt.
The central pressure has also decreased
to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased
to 60 kt for this advisory.
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