ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#241 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:26 pm

Interesting tidbit from the discussion:

A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45
percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning
to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new
15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central
convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#242 Postby xironman » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:59 pm

They used the A-word, you are never supposed to use the A-word.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#243 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:11 pm

Dry air looks to be mixed out for the time being. Chris looks OK on sat loop. Considering recent trends, I'd say hurricane by 11pm.....MGC
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#244 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:30 pm

MSLP down to 994mb per recon, 53 knot SFMR in the south quad.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:34 pm

Looks like two bands of stronger winds now, is the inner core falling apart from being stalled so long?
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#246 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:35 pm

It looks very well defined in the satellite loops. Surprised they threw the annular term into the last discussion.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:35 pm

Interesting that the buoy SSW of the coc is now reporting 78.3F ocean temp, nice upwelling going on underneath Chris, very shallow warm waters in that area away from the gulf stream.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:52 pm

Are the NOAA planes recording lower wind because they fly at a higher altitude? The winds on this flight are drastically lower and I don't think it's weakened suddenly with the pressure dropping.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#249 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:15 pm

Hammy wrote:Are the NOAA planes recording lower wind because they fly at a higher altitude? The winds on this flight are drastically lower and I don't think it's weakened suddenly with the pressure dropping.

You're comparing apple to oranges. The previous flight flew diagonally, first NW-SE, then NE-SW. This flight is flying due S-N, and I assume W-E.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#250 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:26 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Are the NOAA planes recording lower wind because they fly at a higher altitude? The winds on this flight are drastically lower and I don't think it's weakened suddenly with the pressure dropping.

You're comparing apple to oranges. The previous flight flew diagonally, first NW-SE, then NE-SW. This flight is flying due S-N, and I assume W-E.


The winds on the NOAA flights are consistently lower than the AF flights, it's not just this one.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#251 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:43 pm

Second pass comming from NOAA plane.

Image
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#252 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:45 pm

VDM of first pass.

000
URNT12 KWBC 092303
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/22:25:36Z
B. 32.28 deg N 074.51 deg W
C. NA
D. 995 mb
E. 310 deg 05 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C30
H. 53 kt
I. 180 deg 17 nm 22:21:26Z
J. 292 deg 60 kt
K. 182 deg 20 nm 22:20:37Z
L. 45 kt
M. 359 deg 18 nm 22:30:12Z
N. 076 deg 55 kt
O. 359 deg 15 nm 22:29:23Z
P. 14 C / 2362 m
Q. 16 C / 2412 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0903A CHRIS OB 05
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 60 KT 182 / 20 NM 22:20:37Z
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#253 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:55 pm

URNT15 KWBC 092345
NOAA2 0903A CHRIS HDOB 20 20180709
233600 3214N 07542W 7673 02404 0129 +131 +090 353037 039 029 000 00
233630 3214N 07540W 7669 02406 0130 +127 +091 357040 042 027 004 00
233700 3214N 07537W 7669 02402 0127 +127 +090 000043 044 030 004 00
233730 3214N 07535W 7670 02399 0122 +129 +098 359045 045 030 002 00
233800 3214N 07533W 7669 02400 0118 +127 +116 353041 044 035 004 00
233830 3214N 07530W 7636 02434 0115 +127 //// 351041 044 032 019 01
233900 3214N 07528W 7646 02419 0107 +132 +123 359040 043 032 005 00
233930 3214N 07525W 7640 02421 0104 +133 +113 358039 039 032 001 00
234000 3214N 07523W 7653 02404 0105 +129 +108 359041 041 031 000 00
234030 3214N 07521W 7653 02401 0104 +128 +104 000041 042 030 000 00
234100 3214N 07518W 7654 02397 0097 +131 +102 358044 045 031 000 00
234130 3214N 07516W 7653 02399 0098 +129 +105 358046 047 035 000 00
234200 3214N 07514W 7653 02395 0097 +125 +110 357046 047 037 001 00
234230 3214N 07511W 7652 02393 0088 +130 +123 006049 051 042 005 00
234300 3214N 07509W 7606 02441 0082 +129 +129 005049 051 039 011 00
234330 3214N 07507W 7645 02397 0077 +133 +127 006048 050 041 005 00
234400 3214N 07504W 7648 02390 0077 +131 +120 006048 050 035 004 00
234430 3214N 07502W 7622 02409 0065 +135 +106 003051 051 034 000 00
234500 3214N 07500W 7624 02405 0068 +132 +098 002050 050 035 000 00
234530 3214N 07457W 7622 02403 0063 +132 +094 000050 051 035 000 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#254 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:56 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:02 pm

996 mbs

URNT15 KWBC 092355
NOAA2 0903A CHRIS HDOB 21 20180709
234600 3214N 07455W 7622 02396 0058 +129 +117 001048 049 038 001 00
234630 3214N 07453W 7623 02392 0050 +132 +117 002050 051 036 000 00
234700 3214N 07450W 7630 02386 0041 +134 +119 005050 051 035 001 00
234730 3214N 07448W 7626 02380 0029 +141 +108 004053 054 036 000 00
234800 3214N 07446W 7631 02370 0016 +150 +102 003053 054 035 000 00
234830 3214N 07443W 7630 02363 0005 +150 +106 000054 055 040 000 00
234900 3214N 07441W 7565 02425 0001 +140 +116 000054 054 041 000 00
234930 3214N 07439W 7528 02460 9989 +137 +121 358046 047 037 002 00
235000 3214N 07436W 7562 02407 9982 +134 +129 351036 040 033 002 00
235030 3214N 07434W 7572 02394 9981 +130 +119 352028 031 029 002 00
235100 3215N 07432W 7556 02411 9975 +135 +119 348021 024 025 001 00
235130 3215N 07429W 7554 02410 9966 +141 +120 353016 017 020 000 03
235200 3215N 07427W 7561 02393 9961 +145 +114 004013 014 013 000 03
235230 3215N 07425W 7557 02403 9955 +147 +121 359008 009 008 000 03
235300 3215N 07422W 7587 02369 9946 +158 +118 002003 003 009 000 00
235330 3215N 07420W 7527 02433 9944 +155 +114 318002 003 009 000 00
235400 3215N 07417W 7521 02439 9949 +146 +118 197004 010 012 000 00
235430 3215N 07415W 7552 02405 9954 +145 +120 181017 021 012 000 00
235500 3215N 07413W 7554 02407 9955 +149 +116 184026 027 023 000 00
235530 3215N 07410W 7553 02413 9960 +152 +116 183033 037 035 000 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#256 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:03 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#257 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:31 pm

VDM:

000
URNT12 KWBC 100023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/23:53:42Z
B. 32.26 deg N 074.32 deg W
C. NA
D. 996 mb
E. 295 deg 01 kt
F. OPEN E
G. E02/30/20
H. 42 kt
I. 269 deg 44 nm 23:42:38Z
J. 001 deg 55 kt
K. 267 deg 21 nm 23:48:30Z
L. 49 kt
M. 089 deg 13 nm 23:56:51Z
N. 186 deg 54 kt
O. 089 deg 20 nm 23:58:38Z
P. 15 C / 2331 m
Q. 16 C / 2395 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0903A CHRIS OB 16
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 60 KT 182 / 20 NM 22:20:37Z
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#258 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:16 pm

Image

does anyone else think 91% RH at 850 mb for an almost hurricane seems a little low?
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#259 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:36 pm

MSLP looks to be down to ~992mb now.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#260 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:40 pm

New VDM at 996 mbs.

000
URNT12 KWBC 100131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 10/00:55:15Z
B. 32.20 deg N 074.36 deg W
C. 700 MB 3041 m
D. 996 mb
E. 265 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN E
G. E00/30 /20
H. 44 kt
I. 045 deg 19 nm 00:50:24Z
J. 145 deg 54 kt
K. 045 deg 18 nm 00:50:46Z
L. 61 kt
M. 219 deg 15 nm 00:58:58Z
N. 314 deg 63 kt
O. 220 deg 18 nm 00:59:48Z
P. 12 C / 3072 m
Q. 13 C / 3081 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0903A CHRIS OB 25
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 220 / 18 NM 00:59:48Z
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