ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:47 pm

Winds look like they're down overall and there's more dry air intrusion on the west side as well as what appears to be increasing shear. High cloud elements over the last hour or so in this area are starting to move back towards the S-SE

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Advisories

#262 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:58 pm

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Chris
has changed little in strength during the past several hours. The
aircraft has reported maximum flight-level of 63 kt at 700 mb to
the southwest of the center, along with a somewhat-uncertain maximum
SFMR surface wind estimate of 61 kt. The latest reported central
pressure is 995 mb. Based on these, the initial intensity will be
held at a possibly generous 60 kt. The aircraft also reported that
a partial eyewall of 20-30 n mi diameter has formed, but has not yet
been able to close off.

Chris has moved little since the last advisory, as it remains
trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge. A large mid-latitude
trough is forming over eastern Canada and the northeastern
United States, and as this system develops southward it should
break down the ridge and steer Chris to the northeast after about
12 h, with an increasing forward speed expected thereafter as the
tropical cyclone enters the mid-latitude westerlies. Chris should
pass east of the Canadian Maritimes in about 72 h, then pass near or
over southeastern Newfoundland between 72-96 h. The track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread remains
in the forecast forward speed. The new forecast track is an update
of the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.

The sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi
southwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is
possible that the temperatures are colder under the center. This
ocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the
storm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an
otherwise favorable environment and storm structure. Significant
intensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually
starts moving. Based on this and the forecast track, the new
intensity forecast will delay Chris' intensification into a
hurricane until the 18-24 h point. After that, Chris should
strengthen until it moves north of the Gulf Stream and starts to
merge with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is expected
to be complete by 72 h, with the extratropical low gradually
decaying as it moves across the north Atlantic. The new intensity
forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance except
during the first 12 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 32.3N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 32.6N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 33.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 37.7N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 44.0N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:17 pm

NDG wrote:Interesting that the buoy SSW of the coc is now reporting 78.3F ocean temp, nice upwelling going on underneath Chris, very shallow warm waters in that area away from the gulf stream.


The NHC also noticed the SST reported by the nearby buoy.

The sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi
southwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is
possible that the temperatures are colder under the center. This
ocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the
storm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an
otherwise favorable environment and storm structure. Significant
intensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually
starts moving.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:34 am

Wind field appears to be expanding based on the latest recon data.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:16 am

Plane isn't recording anything higher than a small area of 50kt winds so Chris has definitely weakened from earlier thanks to the upwelling but it looks like it's started moving, there's been a bit more visible movement on satellite over the last few hours.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Advisories

#266 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:59 am

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

The satellite presentation of Chris has improved overnight with an
increase in convective banding and the recent development of a
banding eye. An earlier NOAA and an overnight Air Force Reserve
aircraft have noted the presence of a ragged 25 n mi wide eye, which
can also be seen in NWS WSR-88D radar imagery from Morehead City,
North Carolina. Despite the increase in organization the Air Force
aircraft did not find winds to support hurricane strength. In
fact, the plane only measured peak 850 mb flight level winds of 66
kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt. However, there is likely some
undersampling as the plane only made one pass through each quadrant.
Therefore the initial remains 60 kt, which is compromise between
the most recent satellite estimates and the lower reconnaissance
data. The aircraft did report that the pressure has fallen to 993
mb.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes suggest that Chris may be
beginning its much anticipated northeastward motion, albeit very
slow at the moment. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to drop
southeastward over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States
which should begin to steer Chris on a faster northeastward heading
over the next day or so. As the trough deepens, Chris should
accelerate further as it becomes embedded within deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. Chris is forecast to pass
well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, then move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but some
speed differences remain. The updated NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies between the slower ECMWF
and the various consensus aids.

As Chris begins to move northeastward, it will be leaving the area
of upwelled cooler waters and traversing warm SSTs during the
next 24 to 36 h. This should result in strengthening and Chris is
expected to become a hurricane later today. By 48 h, Chris will be
moving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream and begin
interacting with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is
expected to be complete in about 60-72 h, and the extratropical low
is forecast to gradually weaken after passing Newfoundland. The
new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the Florida State
Superensemble, which is a little higher than the statistical
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 32.6N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 33.1N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 39.7N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 50.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:51 am

@TropicalTidbits
#Chris is finally moving NE, away from the upwelled cold water. While some northerly shear exists right now, this should allow Chris to become a hurricane.

Peak intensity should be Wed. evening during favorable interaction w/ a jet to the north while Chris is over gulf stream.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1016657096019009537


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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:15 am

Chris is beggining to move and that will allow for the storm to be a Hurricane shortly.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:40 am

No way this is still a 60kt TS with that eye and deep convection pulsing.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby stormreader » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:53 am

TheStormExpert wrote:No way this is still a 60kt TS with that eye and deep convection pulsing.


I hear ‘ya. Looks like a full blown hurricane.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:20 am

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:27 am

TheStormExpert wrote:No way this is still a 60kt TS with that eye and deep convection pulsing.


I'm fairly sure that the NHC will upgrade it on the next advisory, due out shortly. They don't upgrade between regular advisories if there are no watches/warnings out for a storm.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:30 am

SAB says Hurricane.

10/1147 UTC 32.8N 73.5W T4.0/4.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Advisories

#274 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:53 am

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

During the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in
both satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has
varied in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall
convective pattern has also become more symmetrical with
well-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite
intensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from
SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite
appearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold
upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was
moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have
likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger
winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is
supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA
Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48
hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this
afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.

Recent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally
moving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial
motion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to
the southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the
remnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward
the northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a
strong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east
coast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48
hours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova
Scotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in
good agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there
continues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN.

My best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that
significant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii
while Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case,
then Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should
allow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds
aloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear
is forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so
gradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours,
Chris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be
moving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with
strong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly
transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
forecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then
shows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS,
LGEM, and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 33.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 35.6N 69.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 38.4N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 42.0N 60.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 48.1N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 52.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 54.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:55 am

I'm surprised they didn't upgrade it. Recon should confirm that it's a hurricane when it arrives.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:56 am

Here is why the no upgrade.

However, the intensity is being
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold
upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was
moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have
likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger
winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is
supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA
Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48
hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this
afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#277 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:19 am

The afternoon mission that Stacey Stewart mentioned in discussion is underway.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:37 am

Au Revoir, Adios, Auf Wiedersehen, goodbye Chris.
Now we can get back in the water.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby stormreader » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is why the no upgrade.

However, the intensity is being
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold
upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was
moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have
likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger
winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is
supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA
Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48
hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this
afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.

Wow! Can’t fault the logic of cooler sea surface (upwelling) etc.. So, at this point, without a recent recon, the NHC is going with non-intensification based on measurable sst’s and it’s probable effects, as opposed to the sat presentation of recent hours (which clearly argues for upgrade).
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:02 am

Hmmmm ... can't say I've seen many tropical storms look this good. :)

Image
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