ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#361 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Despite the pressure drop, there is nothing to support a higher intensity.


There is usually a lag between pressure falls and resultant increases in wind speed. Would not be too surprised to see winds respond within the next couple of passes.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#362 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Despite the pressure drop, there is nothing to support a higher intensity.


Plenty of hurricane force winds, uncontaminated.

195200 3324N 07242W 8440 01322 9825 +182 +152 300068 075 064 001 00
195230 3323N 07243W 8425 01357 9850 +172 +153 298079 080 068 001 00
195300 3322N 07244W 8430 01367 9863 +181 +147 300080 081 066 001 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#363 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Despite the pressure drop, there is nothing to support a higher intensity.


RFQ in this case is the SE though.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#364 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:11 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Despite the pressure drop, there is nothing to support a higher intensity.


RFQ in this case is the SE though.


Those only support about 65-70 kt. Highest intensity in the storm found was 75 kt (previous pass with 984 pressure), which is likely the current intensity despite the drop to 980.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#365 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:12 pm

877
URNT15 KNHC 102009
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 36 20180710
195930 3310N 07259W 8426 01499 0016 +166 +124 300061 063 045 001 00
200000 3309N 07300W 8436 01494 0019 +170 +126 302060 061 045 001 00
200030 3308N 07301W 8426 01510 0029 +163 +127 301058 059 046 001 00
200100 3307N 07303W 8426 01512 0034 +163 +127 302058 059 044 001 00
200130 3306N 07304W 8427 01516 0040 +158 +127 302053 057 041 002 00
200200 3305N 07305W 8434 01512 0044 +159 +127 305052 053 041 002 00
200230 3304N 07307W 8446 01502 0046 +162 +127 304052 055 041 000 00
200300 3304N 07308W 8426 01525 0048 +164 +125 304050 051 040 000 00
200330 3303N 07309W 8430 01524 0051 +163 +124 305050 050 038 001 03
200400 3302N 07310W 8429 01528 0055 +163 +126 305051 051 037 000 00
200430 3300N 07312W 8430 01531 0056 +166 +126 302051 052 036 000 00
200500 3259N 07312W 8436 01528 0065 +154 +128 304048 050 036 001 00
200530 3258N 07313W 8428 01536 0064 +160 +127 305051 052 036 000 00
200600 3256N 07314W 8430 01538 0069 +156 +126 301050 051 035 000 00
200630 3255N 07315W 8428 01541 0076 +151 +125 299048 049 035 001 03
200700 3254N 07316W 8438 01534 0072 +161 +123 300045 048 031 001 03
200730 3254N 07318W 8422 01550 0071 +163 +123 299044 044 030 001 00
200800 3253N 07319W 8433 01540 0072 +163 +123 300044 045 032 000 00
200830 3252N 07321W 8430 01545 0077 +160 +124 300044 045 031 000 00
200900 3251N 07322W 8433 01545 0077 +162 +126 300042 043 031 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#366 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:It's CDO is quite warm and its heading toward colder waters so not sure how much room this has to intensify.


I wouldn't call SSTs near 26C "colder", I have seen plenty of Cat 2 Hurricanes and even Cat 3 Hurricanes over 26-27C waters over the sub-tropical Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#367 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:14 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:It's CDO is quite warm and its heading toward colder waters so not sure how much room this has to intensify.

Looks like there will be SST's conducive for development for the next day or so.


SST's per SHIPS have this falling to 26C in 12 hours and rapidly dropping off after 36. What am I missing here?
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#368 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:It's CDO is quite warm and its heading toward colder waters so not sure how much room this has to intensify.

Looks like there will be SST's conducive for development for the next day or so.


SST's per SHIPS have this falling to 26C in 12 hours and rapidly dropping off after 36. What am I missing here?


It's over 24C waters right now due to upwelling. It actually warms up for 24 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#369 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:21 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:It's CDO is quite warm and its heading toward colder waters so not sure how much room this has to intensify.

Looks like there will be SST's conducive for development for the next day or so.


SST's per SHIPS have this falling to 26C in 12 hours and rapidly dropping off after 36. What am I missing here?


In 24 hrs it will be back over the warm loop current before tracking off it after 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#370 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:24 pm

NDG wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Looks like there will be SST's conducive for development for the next day or so.


SST's per SHIPS have this falling to 26C in 12 hours and rapidly dropping off after 36. What am I missing here?


In 24 hrs it will be back over the warm loop current before tracking off it after 36 hours.


If so, this most likely becomes a major then.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#371 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
NDG wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
SST's per SHIPS have this falling to 26C in 12 hours and rapidly dropping off after 36. What am I missing here?


In 24 hrs it will be back over the warm loop current before tracking off it after 36 hours.


If so, this most likely becomes a major then.


I agree, there's a good possibility, IMO.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#372 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:29 pm

Eye is 25 miles wide.

385
URNT12 KNHC 102019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 10/19:48:30Z
B. 33.50 deg N 072.60 deg W
C. 850 mb 1241 m
D. 980 mb
E. 065 deg 2 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 68 kt
I. 028 deg 8 nm 19:45:30Z
J. 123 deg 82 kt
K. 028 deg 8 nm 19:45:30Z
L. 68 kt
M. 225 deg 11 nm 19:52:30Z
N. 300 deg 81 kt
O. 226 deg 14 nm 19:53:30Z
P. 15 C / 1524 m
Q. 20 C / 1521 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 1103A CHRIS OB 15
MAX FL WIND 88 KT 187 / 22 NM 18:10:30Z
;
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#373 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:32 pm

Mission is over.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#374 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:32 pm

Have not looked too deeply into it, but it might well indeed become the northernmost July major on record if it does so. Not seeing many other contenders at first glance, at least in the satellite era.

Okay, a more thorough search makes me very strongly suspect that this would be the northernmost July major if it reached that point. Definitely an outside shot, but could happen.
Last edited by EquusStorm on Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#375 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:37 pm

I have placed Chris's latest HWRF's forecast track over the STTs map, you can that by tomorrow afternoon into the evening it will be tracking over the warm gulf stream before heading into much colder waters on Thursday.

Image
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#376 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:41 pm

3/2/2 so far, not too shabby.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Advisories

#377 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:53 pm

HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018
2100 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IN ATLANTIC CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 72.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 130SE 100SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 72.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds
of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of
73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface
winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was
980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined
20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory
intensity.

The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of
a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates
that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough
over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination
of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane
northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the
time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so,
the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt.
On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or
over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest
model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and
along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new
forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and
TVCN consensus model suite.

Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some
additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so
due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established
current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that
time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in
intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating
some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have
moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder
than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a
rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then
shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models.

Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the
previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been
canceled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#378 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:53 pm

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#379 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:59 pm

Probably not what anyone was expecting at the start of the season.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Models

#380 Postby Taffy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:00 pm

Well guess what... I am flying to Nova Scotia, Halifax, Peggy’s Cove Wednesday morning and will be there until the 18th.

If I left Florida and went to Canada and have to deal with a tropical threat up there, I will laugh at the irony.
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