ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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NDG
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#381 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:06 pm

Beautiful hurricane that Chris is turning into, especially for this time of the year.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#382 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:07 pm

Amazing what a little warm water can do for a TC. Chris has a classic satellite appearance. Took a while longer to get going due to the dry air and cool SST, should take off now.....MGC
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#383 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:10 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#384 Postby psyclone » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:45 pm

Wow is all I can say at that visible pic and loop. we usually need to look to the east pac for something like this in July. Really impressive.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#385 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:50 pm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2018 Time : 211543 UTC
Lat : 33:39:00 N Lon : 72:21:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.4mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -55.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 60km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.2 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#386 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:54 pm

Image

T5.5 actually this frame.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#387 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:11 pm

First time since 2014 that both the B and the C storm attained hurricane status
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#388 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:46 pm

Chris has formed and intensified in an area that is favorable for tropical cyclone development in this type of year. Water is anomalously warm and shear low. I’d bet that Chris isn’t the last strong storm in the sub-tropics this year. Beryl, IMO, was a fluke.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#389 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:10 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#390 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:16 pm

Worth noting...

AL, 03, 2018071012, , BEST, 0, 328N, 735W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 60, 60, 1018, 240, 20, 75, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, D, 12, NEQ, 80, 80, 60, 60, genesis-num, 009
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#391 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:09 pm

PLEASE READ

If you see a post that violates Storm 2K standards REPORT IT and move on. Quoting the post just means yours will be removed along with the rest of the unholy mess I just had to deal with.

Apologies for those caught up in the mess. Now let's be respectful to each other and have a nice discussion of Chris. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#392 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:11 pm

Image

Choking down the stretch. MG spot appears. T5.0 at 0z most likely.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#393 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:14 pm

Yeah tolakram. Thank you for cleanjng up the unholy mess as you deemed it. I have been a member for 8 years on this forum, but stuff like that is making this site become more unfriendly, which I do not like.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#394 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:16 pm

Kazmit wrote:Probably not what anyone was expecting at the start of the season.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks.


That's quite something considering the recent seasonal forecasts were lowered. It also puts this year five weeks ahead of last year as far as hurricanes go as well as ACE.

And based on the intensification trend today this could be a Cat 2 when the next plane arrives provided there's no dry air entrainment.
Last edited by Hammy on Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#395 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:16 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#396 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:18 pm

Yeah I agree, nice looking hurricane. Formed in an area where a lot of us were expecting development in July.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#397 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:20 pm

Hammy wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Probably not what anyone was expecting at the start of the season.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks.


That's quite something considering the recent seasonal forecasts were lowered. It also puts this year five weeks ahead of last year as far as hurricanes go as well as ACE.

And based on the intensification trend today this could be a Cat 2 when the next plane arrives provided there's no dry air entrainment.


This almost certainly gets declared a Category 2 next advisory, but there is no more recon associated with this storm.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#398 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:23 pm

For those who may be asking about when is the next mission,there will not be anymore missions to Chris as is moving away from the U.S.

From 5 PM Discussion:

Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the
previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been
canceled.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#399 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:24 pm

Based on earlier Recon, trends and satellite, I would go with 90 kt right now (pressure 970).
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Hurricane - Discussion

#400 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:34 pm

AL, 03, 201807102347, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3390N, 7200W, , 1, 90, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, JK, IM, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=5.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO DT
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