EPAC: INVEST 98E

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EPAC: INVEST 98E

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:52 am

EP, 98, 2018070912, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1198W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 98, 2018070918, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1208W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 98, 2018071000, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1218W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 98, 2018071006, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1228W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 98, 2018071012, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1238W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:34 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:45 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has developed a little over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:44 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982018 07/10/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 39 38 29 23 18
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 39 38 29 23 18
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 16 13 9 9 11 15 16 18 21 28 37 39
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 -1 -3 -5 1 3 2 -1 -6 -2
SHEAR DIR 225 249 272 266 256 237 228 220 228 214 225 216 233
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.0 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 143 140 140 145 138 132 125 108 105 104 102
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2
700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 77 79 78 75 71 64 58 53 49 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 14 12 13 10 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 14 9 7 -4 -4 3 -2 -2 -18 -15 -27
200 MB DIV 61 45 44 55 66 92 97 86 97 65 60 30 8
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 13 9 3 7 8
LAND (KM) 2177 2238 2270 2283 2283 2268 2247 2194 2162 2200 1959 1676 1456
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.8 15.8 17.9 19.4 20.9 22.3
LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.8 125.7 126.4 127.0 128.0 128.8 129.9 131.5 133.6 136.1 138.8 141.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 12 14 14 15 14 12
HEAT CONTENT 28 34 28 24 23 27 32 11 6 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -17.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 10. 8. 10. 5. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 14. 13. 4. -2. -7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 123.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 07/10/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 18.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.2% 36.0% 14.5% 8.1% 3.3% 14.6% 23.4% 15.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.7%
Consensus: 1.1% 20.6% 11.1% 2.8% 1.1% 11.1% 14.4% 5.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 07/10/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:56 pm

:uarrow:
12z Euro takes this to near hurricane strength in the CPAC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
12z Euro takes this to near hurricane strength in the CPAC.


That's the one behind this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
12z Euro takes this to near hurricane strength in the CPAC.


That's the one behind this.


Ah, this is the one the 06z GFS briefly spun up.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:16 pm

Based on that SHIPS run this actually has a decent chance to become TS Gilma and enter the CPAC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Based on that SHIPS run this actually has a decent chance to become TS Gilma and enter the CPAC.



SHIPS has this reaching some bizarre latitude when this will likely just track west and be a southern clipper. Quite frankly, who knows if it will develop - storms at this latitude in July or early August tend to be unpredictable.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:04 pm

12z Euro is very bullish.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:38 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development during
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#12 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Lots of shear and outflow boundaries right now near this invest, might have to wait until it gets in the CPAC for better conditions, if that.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:26 pm

It would be cool to see a long running west runner similar to the ECMWF solution.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:55 pm

1900hurricane wrote:It would be cool to see a long running west runner similar to the ECMWF solution.


Been a minute since we last seen one of those.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:03 am

120
ABPZ20 KNHC 110514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are becoming less conducive for the development of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#16 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:41 am

450
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Despite marginally
conducive environmental conditions, the broad nature of the
disturbance is expected to inhibit any significant development while
it moves westward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#17 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:10 pm

Next system please. :spam:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#18 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:43 pm

This season has really toned down.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:48 pm

Bye.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, is
likely to be slow to occur as the disturbance moves westward over
the next several days due to marginal environmental conditions and
the broad nature of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:23 pm

NotSparta wrote:This season has really toned down.


It's actually still on track with 2009, 2014, and 2015 to an extent. If we go without another named system for the rest of the July, then we surely can say it's toned down.
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