WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:59 am

SPAWNINVEST, ep712018 to ep932018,
EP, 93, 2018072812, , BEST, 0, 88N, 990W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:48 am

Enviroment looks favorable with mild shear and warn sst's.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/28/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 41 47 52 58 63 64 66
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 41 47 52 58 63 64 66
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 31 32 32 33 35 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 7 6 4 2 7 10 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 2 1 6 2 0 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 74 71 64 57 47 83 106 154 214 44 66 79 136
SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 152 150 143 142 145 145 142 143 144 147 148
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6
700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 64 62 64 67 69 68 69 64 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 11 0 -10 -16 -14 -19 -28 -32 -25 -29 -23
200 MB DIV 38 34 32 29 37 0 -10 -8 -7 -2 18 13 12
700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -5 -6 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 1
LAND (KM) 807 827 876 943 1014 1161 1366 1549 1722 1889 2005 2145 2270
LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0
LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.3 101.8 103.3 104.9 107.9 110.7 113.3 115.7 118.1 120.4 122.6 124.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 16 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 18 18 23 23 14 34 33 20 29 45

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 32. 38. 43. 44. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 99.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 21.7% 9.5% 4.8% 3.1% 4.3% 1.7% 49.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.0% 7.7% 3.2% 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 16.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:50 am

First visible images show it does not look too bad.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:39 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:47 pm

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system during the next several days while
it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:11 pm

I wonder why the global models are not so enthusiastic with this system while the intensity models are more bullish.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:22 pm

Track is way too south.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/28/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 30 37 45 52 60 64 67 70 72
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 30 37 45 52 60 64 67 70 72
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 47 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 9 7 5 1 8 8 7 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 0 3 0 3 5 0 -2 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 67 63 53 54 56 95 103 99 62 38 57 91 150
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 143 144 147 143 142 143 144 143 146 151
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6
700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 61 60 64 66 67 68 66 66 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 -1 -12 -14 -15 -11 -20 -23 -26 -25 -26 -19
200 MB DIV 46 43 35 34 20 -5 -8 9 0 7 0 5 0
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -7 -6 -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 0 0
LAND (KM) 831 872 928 989 1048 1227 1408 1578 1772 1894 2034 2186 2330
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.7 103.2 104.8 106.3 109.3 111.9 114.4 116.9 119.3 121.6 123.8 125.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 18 20 25 14 17 32 19 20 28 34

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 25. 32. 40. 44. 47. 50. 52.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 100.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.0% 22.4% 9.5% 4.7% 3.6% 4.7% 9.0% 73.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 0.2%
Consensus: 1.3% 8.2% 3.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 4.0% 24.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:42 pm

:uarrow: Even if the system gains latitude, the latest CIMSS wind shear chart keeps shear very low until about 130W...

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:52 pm

Image

Past couple of frames hinting at outflow trying to establish north of the system.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:19 pm

Low long-track riders generally get good ACE units pending conditions.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:28 pm

I would up it to 50% for development:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:36 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico have become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development of this system during the next several days while
it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Low long-track riders generally get good ACE units pending conditions.


I doubt this turns into anything more than a weak TS or TD. Shear is just ok and this doesn't have much model support.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:28 pm

28/2345 UTC 9.1N 102.5W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:35 pm

HWRF is crazy.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:38 pm

I'm sure the NHC would'vet went much higher if there was GFS/Euro support.

Image

Rare to see an invest with a convective signature well defined like this one only @ 20%.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:38 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 33 39 47 52 58 63 68 71 71
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 33 39 47 52 58 63 68 71 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 44 47 49 53 57 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 14 9 7 6 7 6 7 9 8 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 1 2 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 60 47 47 55 59 61 91 110 95 69 68 103 115
SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 145 145 144 150 148 148 144 144 146 144 148
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 63 65 68 68 70 72 68 69 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -12 -12 -17 -16 -14 -24 -24 -29 -32 -32 -29
200 MB DIV 50 46 39 28 20 -2 -8 -3 -2 11 26 8 9
700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -3 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 1 -1
LAND (KM) 858 896 953 998 1052 1225 1411 1612 1773 1959 2141 2294 2448
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3
LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.7 104.2 105.8 107.3 110.5 113.6 116.5 119.5 122.3 125.1 127.5 129.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 15 16 14 15 14 14 13 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 20 22 19 15 15 15 11 20 19 31

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 19. 19. 18.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 22. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 101.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 16.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 9.4% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% 3.5% 12.0% 62.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.4% 9.2% 6.4% 0.6% 0.4% 6.0% 9.7% 21.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:51 pm

Here is the crazy HWRF.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:30 am

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gilma, located about 1300 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some additional development of this
system during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven


Convection is becoming a little more organized near broad low
pressure centered west of the offshore waters of Central America
near 09N102W. The estimated sea level pressure is 1010 mb. While
there has been steady development of this system over the past 12
to 18 hours, there remains some uncertainty about its development
over the next couple of days. There is a moderate chance for
tropical cyclone development through the next five days.
At any
rate, large clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
within 180 nm mainly in the northwest semcircle of the low
pressure. Expect fresh to occasionally strong winds in this
convection, with seas building to 8 ft through the next two to
three days.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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