WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#841 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:59 pm

Eric Webb wrote::(
Eric Webb wrote:I'm almost certain the ACE record for a tropical cyclone east of the dateline was set by John (1994) at 53.97 units, Hector can actually take that record if it keeps on this pace over the next 5 days before it reaches the dateline.

I stand corrected the record holder is Fico (1978) although John (1994) is a distant second. Fico has 62.8 ACE units east of the dateline, I don’t see how Hector is gonna beat that.

I looked at Fico (never heard of that one) and even that record ACE producer didn't move westwards deep enough in the Wpac to be thrilling to follow. Still waiting on some TC that can travel at a low latitude right in this region and make it to the dateline while still being at 12N roughly or lower. Without interference from great Hawaiian shear belts you could observe a cyclone just going through ebbs and cycles without "distractions" as I put it. Like Hurricane Dean only longer timespans and more favorable conditions. Fico racked up that ACE by moving slowly when it intensified to category 4 and remained a major for a long while. Slow movement is important for this stat and in addition to the above I'd prefer something to move slowly while at 12N.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#842 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:30 am

Sentinel-3 captured Hector for a second time (here's the link to the first capture). This one is from 1846z yesterday:

Image

Maximum resolution below. There's a lot of blue ocean surface visible through the eye:

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#843 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:04 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#844 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 am

I've been busy with school. But from what I've seen so far, the models have been pretty much garbage with Hector.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#845 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:13 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#846 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:27 am

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#847 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:11 am

Looks like it may be just completing another round of eyewall replacement.

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#848 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:21 am

Very symmetrical ring of intense convection.

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#849 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:58 am

With the latest forecast Hector is probably going to get more than 50 units before it crosses the IDL
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#850 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:12 am

Yeah, definitely finishing up. The should probably clear out pretty soon.

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#851 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:22 pm

Kazmit wrote:I like how Hector decided to tone it down while passing Hawaii, and now is ramping back up again now that the coast is clear. Great timing.


I too, would be a little apprehensive about the possibility of impaling myself on Earth’s largest mountains.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#852 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:30 pm

T numbers have soared back up to 6.4 (125 KT), Hector is making one last run before his inevitable demise as shear increases later tomorrow.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#853 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:25 pm

Dreaming of an officially recognized cat 5..
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#854 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:25 pm

Image
TXPN22 KNES 101755
TCSCNP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 10/1730Z

C. 17.7N

D. 166.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN
AN E NUMBER OF 5.5 AND AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 MAKING THE DT 6.0. THE
MET AND THE PT ARE BOTH 6.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

2018AUG10 173000 6.3 939.3 122.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -4.46 -69.94 EYE 19 IR 76.0 17.77 166.54 ARCHER GOES15 41.4


I would say 120 kt at 18z is reasonable based on T6.0/115kt from SAB and T6.3/122.2kt from CIMSS ADT.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#855 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:30 pm

Image
Image

btw 1538z AMSU and 1702z SSMIS overpass suggest that Hector has a very thick eyewall...not so sure how exactly the intensity would be right now, without a flight investigation.
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#856 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:32 pm

It's as close as it gets to Cat.5 right now.


Even if we don't get a cat.5 classification, there will likely be one in the off season solely due to the 1st recon mission.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#857 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's as close as it gets to Cat.5 right now.


Even if we don't get a cat.5 classification, there will likely be one in the off season solely due to the 1st recon mission.


Eye isn't even WMG.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#858 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:15 pm

EP, 10, 2018081018, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1666W, 120, 947, HU, 34, NEQ, 95, 60, 50, 90, 1009, 160, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HECTOR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,


120 kt.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#859 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:18 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:I would say 120 kt at 18z is reasonable based on T6.0/115kt from SAB and T6.3/122.2kt from CIMSS ADT.
Cunxi Huang wrote:
EP, 10, 2018081018, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1666W, 120, 947, HU, 34, NEQ, 95, 60, 50, 90, 1009, 160, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HECTOR, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,


120 kt.

Cunxi Huang with the good calls as usual.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#860 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:It's as close as it gets to Cat.5 right now.


Even if we don't get a cat.5 classification, there will likely be one in the off season solely due to the 1st recon mission.


Eye isn't even WMG.


I'm basing my call of it being close to Cat.5 based on microwave and visible presentation and the winds that recon found when Hector was this well developed.

Edit: Nvm, cloud tops have warmed since I last posted and those microwave images were taken. 120kts is a pretty good estimate.

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