WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#781 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:47 pm

Visioen wrote:Excerpt from the discussion:
Since this reorganization of the hurricane appears to
be complete now, the eye of Hector has warmed and become much better
defined in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours. As
a result, the satellite fix agencies provided subjective Dvorak
satellite-based intensity estimates ranging from 102 kt to 115 kt.
The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near 105 kt. Based on a
blend of all of this input, we are maintaining the initial intensity
for this advisory at 100 kt.


Am I missing something? How do you blend that to 100 kt?


Hector looks least 105-110 kt right now. Solid CDO and nice warm eye. CPHC is seriously low-balling the system.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#782 Postby Visioen » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:27 pm

Humidity-wise, next 24 hours look promising:

Image

But afterwards, Hector gets 'stuck' between the newly formed TUTT and the upper high, with a lot of shear trying to push it north into the surface high. Curious how that will work out.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#783 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:57 pm

We knew Wednesday would be a struggle for Hector and today he’d turn the corner now he has a legitimate chance to intensify thru late Saturday. T numbers have risen back towards 6.0 so he may become a category 4 hurricane again soon, I think the CPHC will go with 110 or 115 KT here at the 11 o clock advisory if he keeps this up.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#784 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:00 pm

Hector really getting it's act together tonight. Solid white ring on dvorak.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#785 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:03 pm

Hector has been remade. Definitely, probably a cat 4 again.

Image

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#786 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:00 pm

Using NHC and CPHC advisories, Hector cracked the top 10 for most hurricane ACE for an east-central Pacific storm east of the International Dateline. He'll pass a lot of storms on this list later tomorrow if he intensifies into a category 4 hurricane.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#787 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:03 pm

I like how Hector decided to tone it down while passing Hawaii, and now is ramping back up again now that the coast is clear. Great timing.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#788 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:17 pm

CIMSS now has it at a 6.0:

2018AUG10 013000 6.0 946.8 115.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 12.74 -65.35 EYE 18 IR 61.9 17.09 162.69 ARCHER GOES15 37.4
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#789 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:21 pm

0z BEST track is up to 110 KT, Hector should be a cat 4 in the morning if he keeps this up
EP, 10, 2018081000, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1624W, 110, 955, HU
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#790 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:59 pm

Eric Webb wrote::(
Eric Webb wrote:I'm almost certain the ACE record for a tropical cyclone east of the dateline was set by John (1994) at 53.97 units, Hector can actually take that record if it keeps on this pace over the next 5 days before it reaches the dateline.

I stand corrected the record holder is Fico (1978) although John (1994) is a distant second. Fico has 62.8 ACE units east of the dateline, I don’t see how Hector is gonna beat that.

I looked at Fico (never heard of that one) and even that record ACE producer didn't move westwards deep enough in the Wpac to be thrilling to follow. Still waiting on some TC that can travel at a low latitude right in this region and make it to the dateline while still being at 12N roughly or lower. Without interference from great Hawaiian shear belts you could observe a cyclone just going through ebbs and cycles without "distractions" as I put it. Like Hurricane Dean only longer timespans and more favorable conditions. Fico racked up that ACE by moving slowly when it intensified to category 4 and remained a major for a long while. Slow movement is important for this stat and in addition to the above I'd prefer something to move slowly while at 12N.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#791 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:30 am

Sentinel-3 captured Hector for a second time (here's the link to the first capture). This one is from 1846z yesterday:

Image

Maximum resolution below. There's a lot of blue ocean surface visible through the eye:

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#792 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:04 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#793 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 am

I've been busy with school. But from what I've seen so far, the models have been pretty much garbage with Hector.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#794 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:13 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#795 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:27 am

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#796 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:11 am

Looks like it may be just completing another round of eyewall replacement.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#797 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:21 am

Very symmetrical ring of intense convection.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#798 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:58 am

With the latest forecast Hector is probably going to get more than 50 units before it crosses the IDL
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#799 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:12 am

Yeah, definitely finishing up. The should probably clear out pretty soon.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#800 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:22 pm

Kazmit wrote:I like how Hector decided to tone it down while passing Hawaii, and now is ramping back up again now that the coast is clear. Great timing.


I too, would be a little apprehensive about the possibility of impaling myself on Earth’s largest mountains.
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