WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Cyclenall
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#701 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:54 am

Yesterday (and now into this morning) was a bad day in the tropics from a scientific curiosity perspective. Don't get me wrong, I had fun following some of the zany nonsense the Pacific had to offer. Also read some brilliant content/perspective from here. Recon didn't last long or capture precious data at a critical time for Hector, John turned into mush and appears as if he got flung down a mine shaft at 20z, Ileana is pretty much a rainband of John, some of the model guidance is showing an abysmal long range for Hector that should kill any interest that is present with the 135 knot beast, Hector in recent hours gaining too much latitude, and more.

The latest Euro isn't as bad as the 12z run for Hector but I still don't like it too much. The high really needs to build in there and Hector needs to take a dip sw when near the dateline. I don't think I need to mention the recon problems, now that really burns!
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#702 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:58 am

Cyclenall wrote:Yesterday (and now into this morning) was a bad day in the tropics from a scientific curiosity perspective. Don't get me wrong, I had fun following some of the zany nonsense the Pacific had to offer. Also read some brilliant content/perspective from here. Recon didn't last long or capture precious data at a critical time for Hector, John turned into mush and appears as if he got flung down a mine shaft at 20z, Ileana is pretty much a rainband of John, some of the model guidance is showing an abysmal long range for Hector that should kill any interest that is present with the 135 knot beast, Hector in recent hours gaining too much latitude, and more.

The latest Euro isn't as bad as the 12z run for Hector but I still don't like it too much. The high really needs to build in there and Hector needs to take a dip sw when near the dateline. I don't think I need to mention the recon problems, now that really burns!


Hate to say it, but if Hector's current EWRC wraps in too much dry air, it'll likely drop down to Cat.3. If that's the case then recon robbed us of a category 5 classification. But their safety first of course.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#703 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:00 am

Kingarabian wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Yeah, this appears to be a melding type ERC


[img]https://imageshack.com/a/img924/6484/iX9OUf.jpg[img]
Southern sector have already merged


What's astounding is that the eye remains in tact and very warm. Usually the eye would be cooling and filling in. Very odd.


Reminiscent of Irma's ERCs where intensity remained constant throughout.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#704 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:04 am

Cyclenall wrote:Yesterday (and now into this morning) was a bad day in the tropics from a scientific curiosity perspective. Don't get me wrong, I had fun following some of the zany nonsense the Pacific had to offer. Also read some brilliant content/perspective from here. Recon didn't last long or capture precious data at a critical time for Hector, John turned into mush and appears as if he got flung down a mine shaft at 20z, Ileana is pretty much a rainband of John, some of the model guidance is showing an abysmal long range for Hector that should kill any interest that is present with the 135 knot beast, Hector in recent hours gaining too much latitude, and more.

The latest Euro isn't as bad as the 12z run for Hector but I still don't like it too much. The high really needs to build in there and Hector needs to take a dip sw when near the dateline. I don't think I need to mention the recon problems, now that really burns!

Hector is actually following the forecasts, and remains to be stronger than expected.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#705 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:52 am

Looks like it's beginning to intensify again based on the latest Dvorak frames:

Image

Recon info is still spotty, but last pass looked like its down to 125kts-130kts and 945mb.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#706 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:12 am

Kingarabian wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Yeah, this appears to be a melding type ERC


[img]https://imageshack.com/a/img924/6484/iX9OUf.jpg[img]
Southern sector have already merged


What's astounding is that the eye remains in tact and very warm. Usually the eye would be cooling and filling in. Very odd.


That’s actually what’s happening now, you may have spoke too soon, ERCs take several hours at the very least, occasionally an entire day may be needed to suffice.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#707 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:19 am

The intermediate advisory from the CPHC has knocked Hector all the way back to a 115 KT category 4 hurricane.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#708 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:00 am

Structure looking pretty good, but EWRC is still ongoing

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#709 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:13 am

EP, 10, 2018080712, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1471W, 115, 947, HU
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#710 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:16 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#711 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:48 am

Some dry air attempt to disrupt the core, but got kicked out by some new eyewall convection

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#712 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:22 am

Behold, look at that solid ring - just like Irma (Northern sector looks pretty weak though)
Dry air lurks nearby.
Image

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#713 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:31 am

Hector definitely looks better on the latest dvorak images, we might be able to squeeze out another 10 KTS or so but this storm isn't too far from its maximum potential intensity, once he reaches 165W, SSTs will increase again and we might be able to make another run at a cat 5.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#714 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:39 am

Another HH plane just took off from Hawaii to investigate Hector, they should get into the storm around 1-130pm eastern, hopefully we don't lose communication with this one too.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#715 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:47 am

I'd bet they would find a high end cat 4 or a minimal 5.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#716 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:50 am

WTPA41 PHFO 071501
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 07 2018

The satellite presentation of Hector has degraded slightly since
the previous advisory, with cooling temperatures noted within the
slowly shrinking eye of the hurricane. Aircraft reconnaissance data
from the mission flown between 06Z and 12Z by the Air Force Reserve
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron indicated that Hector was
weakening, confirming what was being seen in satellite imagery. The
last report from the overnight mission measured a surface wind of
107 knots in the northwest eye wall around 1030Z, on their way back
to Honolulu. The various subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC came in at 6.5 (127 knots), while
the latest estimate using the Advanced Dvorak technique from
UW-CIMSS yielded 6.2 (120 knots). The initial intensity was weighted
equally between the various satellite estimates and the
observational data from the aircraft, taking into account that the
aircraft could have very easily under sampled the strongest winds
within the hurricane. As a result, the initial intensity with this
advisory is set at 115 knots with a motion remaining locked in at
280/14 knots.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered and brings
Hector just north of due west today. A building subtropical ridge
to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should then steer Hector
nearly due westward tonight through Thursday night. The system
should begin to bend back toward the west-northwest or northwest
Friday through Saturday as it rounds the southwest periphery of the
subtropical ridge and begins to be influenced by an upper level
trough setting up between 170W and the International Date Line. The
new official forecast track lies virtually on top of the previous
track and is very close to the model consensus. The forecast track
brings the center of Hector roughly 165 miles south of the
Big Island as a strong category 2 hurricane on Wednesday, and given
the proximity of the storm to the island, the Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect.

Hector will remain in a favorable low shear environment through
Friday, before west-southwesterly shear increases on Saturday.
There are a couple factors that should lead to some gradual
weakening over the next couple of days however. The hurricane will
be traveling over marginal sea surface temperatures around 27C
through Wednesday night, before the SSTs increase slightly to around
28C to the south and west of the Hawaiian Islands Thursday through
Saturday. Additionally, very dry mid-level air will continue to
surround the storm through the forecast period, and this is should
lead to gradual weakening of the system over the next couple days.
The intensity of Hector is then expected to level off and perhaps
increase slightly by the 72 and 96 hour forecast points Thursday
through Friday as it encounters the higher SSTs. Some weakening
should then ensue on Saturday as Hector begins to feel increasing
west-southwesterly shear as it approaches the upper trough between
170W and the Date Line. The intensity forecast has been adjusted
slightly downward today through Wednesday night, then is nearly the
same as the previous forecast from Thursday through Saturday. This
is in line with the latest trends of the statistical and dynamical
models, but with more weight given to the dynamical models which
have been better performers recently.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.1N 147.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.3N 150.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.4N 153.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 159.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.0N 165.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 18.2N 170.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 20.0N 175.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#717 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:06 pm

Dvorak intensity estimates have risen significantly again, back up to ~125 KTS/T6.5. We'll see what recon finds here in a bit.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#718 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:16 pm

I wonder if he could make a second run at category 5 status.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#719 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:19 pm

Been awhile since we have seen a Hurricane look this good, this close to Hawaii

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#720 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:49 pm

Last few frames show this still north of west. Maybe the CPHC should issue a TS warning just in case:

Image
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