Dylan wrote:storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Dylan wrote:
Yeah, but it’s not surprising at all that it’s gone annular, since the majority of hurricanes develop annular characteristics in strictly 25-28C waters. I don’t see any reason why Hector would see any significant fluctuations in intensity over the next several days.
I also suspect that models are underestimating the mid-level ridge to the north, since Hectors outflow will likely enhance it, similar to Irma last year. You can only write equations for so many things that a model can handle.
Okay something that has been bothering me about the whole “annular” thing:
People say annular hurricanes are more stable in marginal conditions than the average hurricane, but if they typically are found in the self-same marginal conditions, are they annular before entering those conditions, and the survive for longer because of that; or are the marginal conditions actually causing the annular state?
...also hi. It’s been a while
No they aren’t annular before they develop annular characteristics. That’s ridiculous. Hurricanes generally develop annular characteristics in a specific environment, which is SST’s between 25-28C, light easterly upper level winds, and an anomalously cold temperatures in the upper troposphere. Conditions have to be just right, and that’s why they’re extremely rare.
My assumption is that the hurricane gains the annular structure as an adjustment to most efficiently operate its latent heat engine in that specific environment.
Okay...I was half asleep when posted my question so I wrote it very badly. I am aware that you cannot have an annular hurricane before it becomes annular by definition. I was just curious as to whether they become annular in morphology before they encountered the marginal conditions, and it was simply that the non-annular storms died off while the annular ones survived.
It’s clearly not the case, as you stated, but then that makes me wonder how the physics of the annular state works. After all a storm cannot “decide” to adopt the maximal efficiency state, so I wonder how that occurs. In astrophysics at least, it comes down usually to a balance between different forces, but that doesn’t necessarily lead to a high efficiency state.