WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#721 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:05 pm

Dylan wrote:
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
Dylan wrote:
Yeah, but it’s not surprising at all that it’s gone annular, since the majority of hurricanes develop annular characteristics in strictly 25-28C waters. I don’t see any reason why Hector would see any significant fluctuations in intensity over the next several days.

I also suspect that models are underestimating the mid-level ridge to the north, since Hectors outflow will likely enhance it, similar to Irma last year. You can only write equations for so many things that a model can handle.


Okay something that has been bothering me about the whole “annular” thing:
People say annular hurricanes are more stable in marginal conditions than the average hurricane, but if they typically are found in the self-same marginal conditions, are they annular before entering those conditions, and the survive for longer because of that; or are the marginal conditions actually causing the annular state?

...also hi. It’s been a while


No they aren’t annular before they develop annular characteristics. That’s ridiculous. Hurricanes generally develop annular characteristics in a specific environment, which is SST’s between 25-28C, light easterly upper level winds, and an anomalously cold temperatures in the upper troposphere. Conditions have to be just right, and that’s why they’re extremely rare.

My assumption is that the hurricane gains the annular structure as an adjustment to most efficiently operate its latent heat engine in that specific environment.


Okay...I was half asleep when posted my question so I wrote it very badly. I am aware that you cannot have an annular hurricane before it becomes annular by definition. I was just curious as to whether they become annular in morphology before they encountered the marginal conditions, and it was simply that the non-annular storms died off while the annular ones survived.

It’s clearly not the case, as you stated, but then that makes me wonder how the physics of the annular state works. After all a storm cannot “decide” to adopt the maximal efficiency state, so I wonder how that occurs. In astrophysics at least, it comes down usually to a balance between different forces, but that doesn’t necessarily lead to a high efficiency state.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#722 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:10 pm

120kts this pass.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#723 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:11 pm

Recon has found ~ 120 KT surface winds in the NW quad, supports the raw dvorak once again from CIMSS, meanwhile SAB w/ T numbers ~ 5.5/102 KT is way too low.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#724 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:16 pm

Eric Webb wrote:Recon has found ~ 120 KT surface winds in the NW quad, supports the raw dvorak once again from CIMSS, meanwhile SAB w/ T numbers ~ 5.5/102 KT is way too low.


Yeah ADT (when it has the proper scene type) is a beast and usually has the manual fixes lagging.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#725 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:56 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78
V (KT) LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78
V (KT) LGEM 115 106 99 93 88 81 79 81 84 88 93 95 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 6 9 7 2 2 5 9 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 0 -5 -1 -1 -5 -2 1 5 0
SHEAR DIR 293 279 245 265 253 218 233 240 301 219 206 184 220
SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 132 133 134 137 140 141 143 145 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 43 42 41 38 40 42 45 50 53 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 19 19 19 18 20 21 20 23 24 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 27 26 33 47 60 80 71 74 77 75 57
200 MB DIV -33 11 -3 -3 4 35 29 32 38 53 30 44 -1
700-850 TADV -9 -3 1 4 2 0 -4 -1 1 1 5 12 8
LAND (KM) 755 616 490 383 280 324 578 696 875 1087 1296 1491 1672
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.0 151.5 153.0 154.5 157.5 160.7 163.7 166.6 169.3 171.7 173.9 175.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 7 9 21 25 34 46 39 18 12 18

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 0. 4. 5. 5. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -23. -30. -30. -31. -35. -34. -36. -36. -37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 148.5

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 968.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#726 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:49 pm

18z BEST track.
EP, 10, 2018080718, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1485W, 115, 950, HU
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#727 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:28 pm

Eric Webb wrote:18z BEST track.
EP, 10, 2018080718, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1485W, 115, 950, HU


Should be at least 120kts, recon just confirmed them again on this pass.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#728 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:12 pm

Yikes

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#729 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:14 pm

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 07 2018

Hector remains an impressive hurricane this morning. Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters found a 16 nm diameter eye with maximum
flight level winds of 123 kt in the NW quadrant. The maximum SFMR
wind was 119 kt, but this was near some suspect data. We have
maintained a current intensity of 115 kt for this advisory as a
compromise, which is also in reasonably good agreement with various
subjective and automated satellite estimates. Note that we have
adjusted the wind radii in the northeast quadrant a little larger
based on reconnaissance flight level winds.

Hector continues to move just north of due west, 280 degrees at 14
kt. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with tightly
clustered track guidance. Hector is expected to continue at its
current heading for the next 6-12 hours or so, and then assume a due
westward motion as a deep layer anticylcone to the northeast of
Hawaii builds westward. After 48 hours, Hector is expected to begin
gradually gaining latitude as it passes by the anticyclone and comes
under increasing influence of an upper trough to the west of 170W.

Hector is in a low shear environment, but only marginally warm sea
surface temperatures. This is expected to yield a gradual weakening
trend for the next couple of days. Afterward, the low-shear
environment continues but water temperatures gradually warm, which
may allow Hector to strengthen a bit. Toward the end of the
forecast period, wind shear may start to affect the hurricane, and
the official forecast initiates a new weakening trend. The overall
confidence in the intensity forecast is somewhat low due to these
competing factors. Our intensity forecast tends to follow the ICON
which shows Hector remaining stronger than SHIPS guidance
indicates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.4N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 154.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.7N 157.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.8N 160.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.5N 166.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.8N 171.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 21.0N 176.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#730 Postby Chris90 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:44 pm

The CPHC is confusing me. In their discussion this morning I'm pretty sure they used a 126kt surface wind from a dropsonde to justify a 125kt intensity, when dropsonde winds are momentary gusts not sustained, but now they're iffy about a 119kt SFMR reading because it is near some suspect data. In my opinion, this storm is 120-125kts right now, not 115kts. Hector seems to be getting his act together again.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#731 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:54 pm

0z BEST track keeps Hector at 115 KT.
EP, 10, 2018080800, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1500W, 115, 952,
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#732 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:14 pm

Hector is weakening some more during the past few hours, looks like some dry air is starting to do its magic just as forecasted by models.

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#733 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:15 pm

I’m expecting recon to find a category 3 given degradation on satellite and how close it already was for the cat 3-4 border.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#734 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:16 pm

NDG wrote:Hector is weakening some more during the past few hours, looks like some dry air is starting to do its magic just as forecasted by models.

Image

That doesn’t look like dry air to me if anything it’s another ERC there’s a huge spiral band around the old inner eyewall.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#735 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:28 pm

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#736 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:31 pm

Eric Webb wrote:
NDG wrote:Hector is weakening some more during the past few hours, looks like some dry air is starting to do its magic just as forecasted by models.

https://i.imgur.com/blkvhwm.gif

That doesn’t look like dry air to me if anything it’s another ERC there’s a huge spiral band around the old inner eyewall.


This microwave is only a couple of hours old, right before its satellite presentation started deteriorating, it looks like a dry slot disrupted its eyewall. IMO.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#737 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:44 pm

Looks like dry air intrusion to me
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#738 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:07 pm

Tropical storm warning for the big island.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#739 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Tropical storm warning for the big island.


TS winds are unlikely to get anywhere near the Big Island. Not understanding this warning at all
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#740 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:16 pm

NDG wrote:Hector is weakening some more during the past few hours, looks like some dry air is starting to do its magic just as forecasted by models.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/blkvhwm.gif[/ig]


It's more that the SSTs are no longer able to support such a strong Hurricane. The models have been calling for weakening ever since it 1st became a major hurricane and have done a horrible job with Hectors intensity.
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