WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#741 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:11 am

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Tropical storm warning for the big island.


TS winds are unlikely to get anywhere near the Big Island. Not understanding this warning at all


I'm wondering the same thing. I could see a watch being warranted for the southern tip of the island, but that is it. I'd say the chances of sustained TS winds on the island (not counting high elevation areas unrepresentative of the intensity) is under 20%.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#742 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:12 am

Ubuntwo wrote:Looks like dry air intrusion to me
Image


The last few hours seems to show it closing back off though. Maybe it got into the eye and then mixed out.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#743 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:15 am

NDG wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:
NDG wrote:Hector is weakening some more during the past few hours, looks like some dry air is starting to do its magic just as forecasted by models.

https://i.imgur.com/blkvhwm.gif

That doesn’t look like dry air to me if anything it’s another ERC there’s a huge spiral band around the old inner eyewall.


This microwave is only a couple of hours old, right before its satellite presentation started deteriorating, it looks like a dry slot disrupted its eyewall. IMO.

Image


That much wasn’t dry air intrusion if in fact it actually was one. I don’t want to sound mean but you need to keep in mind for future reference that it’s really hard for dry air to work any “magic” on a small TC like Hector with a well established inner core esp when the shear is light. Either Hector needs to become larger, the shear needs to increase, or the SSTs need to cool even more from where they are now, neither of these will occur at least until Sunday and even then the moderate SWly shear on the GFS is questionable considering it can’t properly initialize the TC and its diabatic heating in the first place. It’s important to do this because heating of the mid-upper troposphere via deep convection is the only way to erode TUTTs and NWP often struggles with the former.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#744 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:37 am

The good news is it looks like Hector is moving wsw and even sw at times now. The bad news is the Euro and probably other models are still showing the terrible long range outcome for the hurricane that would be a waste of a beast. We really need one that is moving west at 8ºN and staying low. One that is just north of the ITCZ so it doesn't get caught up in that.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#745 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:08 am

Hector is actually losing latitude more (and earlier) than what I expected
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#746 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:53 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Hector is actually losing latitude more (and earlier) than what I expected


I discussed this briefly on my twitter account, but this is due to terrain blocking by the mountains of Hawaii, if you watched visible satellite yesterday very carefully you could see trade wind flow accelerating towards the Southwest wrk out ahead of Hector on the southeast side of the big island. This will deflect the track of Hector slightly to the south on approach then he may gain latitude again on the other side of the island when the flow decelerates again
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#747 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:05 am

Cyclenall wrote:The good news is it looks like Hector is moving wsw and even sw at times now. The bad news is the Euro and probably other models are still showing the terrible long range outcome for the hurricane that would be a waste of a beast. We really need one that is moving west at 8ºN and staying low. One that is just north of the ITCZ so it doesn't get caught up in that.

That’s extremely difficult to do for a number of reasons one of them due to beta advection out of the ITCZ and/or monsoon trough where Hector and many other storms originate. This process relies on differences in the coriolis parameter across the breadth of the developing TC and causes it to briefly move northwestward and gain significantly latitude right when they detach from the ITCZ. You see this all the time with TCs that form in the eastern Atlantic
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#748 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:33 am

About 30 units of ACE now for Hector.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#749 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:35 am

Eric Webb wrote:
NDG wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:That doesn’t look like dry air to me if anything it’s another ERC there’s a huge spiral band around the old inner eyewall.


This microwave is only a couple of hours old, right before its satellite presentation started deteriorating, it looks like a dry slot disrupted its eyewall. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/i8xHs2q.jpg


That much wasn’t dry air intrusion if in fact it actually was one. I don’t want to sound mean but you need to keep in mind for future reference that it’s really hard for dry air to work any “magic” on a small TC like Hector with a well established inner core esp when the shear is light. Either Hector needs to become larger, the shear needs to increase, or the SSTs need to cool even more from where they are now, neither of these will occur at least until Sunday and even then the moderate SWly shear on the GFS is questionable considering it can’t properly initialize the TC and its diabatic heating in the first place. It’s important to do this because heating of the mid-upper troposphere via deep convection is the only way to erode TUTTs and NWP often struggles with the former.


I understand that shear needs to really increase for any significant dry air intrusion to occur, but whatever it is it disrupted for a brief moment its core and it sure lost some strength as indicated by the recon compared to 24-48 hrs ago. Perhaps it was the slightly cooler SSTs just SE of the big island of Hawaii near 26C instead of the near 27C waters that it was tracking over the past few days. Thanks for the explanation of how TUTTs get eroded.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#750 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:15 am

Amazing what a small area Hector's hurricane windfield is, a buoy just 70 miles north of Hector reported only low end tropical storm force winds in wind gusts never in sustained winds.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=51004
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#751 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:22 am

Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#752 Postby NotSparta » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:51 am

Eric Webb wrote:Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.


Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#753 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:12 am

Eric Webb wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:
18z is out
10E HECTOR 180806 1800 15.1N 142.4W EPAC 120 934


Shades of JTWC


God help us when Hector crosses the International Dateline


Hoping it doesn't crossover, You have 2 RSMC's using 1 min and Japan uses 10 min. :roll:

AND

JTWC too reliant and way behind dvorak. It will be huge underestimated.

Save us from the headaches.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#754 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:18 am

NotSparta wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.


Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though


Could be a combination of factors, one of them probably being the accelerating trade wind flow out in front of it as it nears the longitude of the big island, we knew today was gonna be the hardest day for the forseeable future for Hector, he'll begin to turn the corner by tomorrow as he gets away from the big island, into warmer SSTs, and RHs begin to rise somewhat, he could really take off on Friday & Saturday right before the TUTT tries to shear him on Sunday.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#755 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:31 am

euro6208 wrote:
Hoping it doesn't crossover, You have 2 RSMC's using 1 min and Japan uses 10 min. :roll:

AND

JTWC too reliant and way behind dvorak. It will be huge underestimated.

Save us from the headaches.

And yeah, the crossover is inevitable now. We'll get more ACE anyway
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#756 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:46 am

The GFS is initializing ~ 20 KT of mid-upper level westerly shear, this explains why Hector has lots its annular structure and the circulation seems a little asymmetrical within its larger convective envelope, definitely doesn't help when there's 15-20 KT of low-mid level westerly steering flow.

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#757 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:52 am

I had to do a double take but the CPHC is keeping Hector at 110 KT this advisory. This storm is arguably a category 2 hurricane atm.

HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
500 am HST Wed Aug 08 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#758 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:26 am

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Hurricane Hector has been showing some signs of weakening overnight.
The eye is somewhat less distinct in infrared satellite imagery
early this morning, but it appears that Hector remains a powerful
system based on data provided by a reconnaissance aircraft from the
U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The
extensive sampling of the cyclone during this mission indicated
surface winds were up to 108 kt. In addition, they sampled
flight-level winds up to 135 kt at 1037z during their final pass
through Hector. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, JTWC, and
SAB) showed current subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0/115
kt. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 5.0/102 kt. For this advisory
we will use a blend of these intensity estimates, and maintain
Hector at 110 kt. Hector continues to move due west, or 270/14 kt.

Only minor adjustments to the forecast track have been made. Hector
will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian Island
chain through Thursday night. Starting around day 3, Hector is
expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it passes around the
southwestern edge of this ridge, and is under increasing influence
from an upper-level trough to the west of longitude 170W. This
motion will likely persist through days 4 and 5.

Hector remains in a relatively low shear environment, but it is
moving across marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is
expected to cause a gradual weakening trend during the next day or
so. Afterward, Hector is expected to change little in intensity
through day 3. The official forecast continues to show a weakening
trend for days 4 and 5 as it starts to gain latitude and it moves
over slightly cooler water temperatures. The latest intensity
forecast closely follows the ICON guidance, which shows Hector
remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.4N 153.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 159.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 17.1N 165.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 18.3N 170.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.5N 175.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 179.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#759 Postby Dylan » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:50 am

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#760 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:14 pm

Hector was too weak on this GFS run to get tugged out to sea at day 10-11 so it slipped under the ridge east of Japan and hung around several more days racking up more ACE. This is certainly a plausible scenario if Hector goes to crap the next several days before reaching the dateline.

Image
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