WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#761 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:09 pm

976
URPN15 KNHC 071806
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 19 20180807
175600 1620N 14839W 6964 02977 9873 +077 +011 038110 112 084 012 00
175630 1619N 14838W 6958 02954 9828 +086 +022 036115 116 090 015 00
175700 1617N 14837W 6966 02908 9769 +101 +033 031113 117 099 011 00
175730 1616N 14836W 6955 02875 9730 +093 +030 025121 123 109 013 00
175800 1614N 14835W 6969 02807 9663 +100 +054 023107 121 119 013 00
175830 1613N 14833W 6987 02741 9594 +119 +096 020075 092 120 008 03
175900 1612N 14831W 6969 02735 9545 +134 +098 020049 064 096 004 03
175930 1612N 14830W 6972 02712 9523 +138 +089 018031 042 046 002 00
180000 1611N 14828W 6968 02706 9511 +140 +064 018015 023 034 002 03
180030 1611N 14826W 6976 02689 9498 +147 +045 340002 011 024 001 00
180100 1611N 14824W 6963 02704 9492 +151 +047 195010 013 023 000 00
180130 1610N 14822W 6967 02696 9482 +166 +030 199033 043 038 002 00
180200 1609N 14821W 6967 02721 9517 +156 +025 207067 080 066 002 03
180230 1608N 14820W 6960 02772 9581 +130 +041 210090 098 093 012 03
180300 1607N 14819W 6983 02789 9656 +105 +045 206102 106 /// /// 03
180330 1607N 14818W 6950 02859 9703 +095 +060 212098 101 /// /// 03
180400 1606N 14817W 6962 02913 9775 +082 +069 220106 119 107 077 03
180430 1604N 14816W 6976 02927 9824 +085 +056 216096 104 097 062 00
180500 1603N 14815W 6968 02967 9859 +085 +046 217091 094 085 027 00
180530 1602N 14814W 6966 02993 9880 +084 +057 215086 090 084 012 00
$$
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#762 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:10 pm

120kts this pass.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#763 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:11 pm

Recon has found ~ 120 KT surface winds in the NW quad, supports the raw dvorak once again from CIMSS, meanwhile SAB w/ T numbers ~ 5.5/102 KT is way too low.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#764 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:16 pm

Eric Webb wrote:Recon has found ~ 120 KT surface winds in the NW quad, supports the raw dvorak once again from CIMSS, meanwhile SAB w/ T numbers ~ 5.5/102 KT is way too low.


Yeah ADT (when it has the proper scene type) is a beast and usually has the manual fixes lagging.
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#765 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:23 pm

749
URPN15 KNHC 071815
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 20 20180807
180600 1601N 14813W 6963 03021 9912 +081 +044 216079 086 077 014 00
180630 1600N 14812W 6970 03028 9924 +089 +034 217075 077 072 006 00
180700 1559N 14811W 6965 03053 9948 +084 +035 222071 073 068 006 00
180730 1558N 14809W 6983 03050 9979 +073 +034 218069 071 061 012 00
180800 1557N 14808W 6960 03084 9987 +076 +027 213064 068 058 006 00
180830 1555N 14807W 6963 03085 9992 +080 +026 214061 061 054 007 03
180900 1554N 14806W 6979 03077 0019 +067 +025 213057 060 051 007 03
180930 1553N 14805W 6960 03107 0007 +081 +021 213057 058 048 007 00
181000 1552N 14804W 6969 03100 0004 +089 +026 214056 057 046 004 00
181030 1551N 14802W 6970 03107 0014 +088 +024 212051 053 044 004 00
181100 1550N 14801W 6967 03113 0026 +082 +023 210050 051 042 005 00
181130 1548N 14800W 6969 03118 0034 +081 +021 209051 052 042 005 00
181200 1547N 14759W 6961 03130 0033 +084 +019 209050 051 041 004 03
181230 1546N 14758W 6974 03118 0033 +088 +017 208046 048 038 004 00
181300 1545N 14757W 6965 03133 0033 +090 +018 207046 047 038 002 00
181330 1544N 14755W 6967 03132 0036 +091 +016 205046 047 037 002 00
181400 1543N 14754W 6967 03135 0038 +092 +012 207045 046 036 002 00
181430 1541N 14753W 6969 03135 0038 +095 +007 206045 045 035 001 00
181500 1540N 14752W 6967 03139 0039 +095 +012 205045 045 033 001 00
181530 1539N 14751W 6967 03141 0038 +098 +011 204044 045 033 001 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#766 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:31 pm

143
URPN15 KNHC 071825
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 21 20180807
181600 1538N 14750W 6966 03144 0040 +097 +008 206044 044 033 001 00
181630 1537N 14749W 6965 03149 0046 +095 +005 206044 045 033 002 00
181700 1535N 14747W 6964 03151 0060 +085 +012 213041 043 033 002 00
181730 1534N 14746W 6969 03147 0051 +095 -011 211039 040 031 000 00
181800 1533N 14745W 6967 03151 0051 +098 -021 208038 039 029 001 00
181830 1532N 14744W 6966 03153 0054 +098 -024 206038 038 029 001 00
181900 1531N 14743W 6966 03155 0061 +092 -018 208036 037 029 000 03
181930 1529N 14741W 6967 03155 0063 +092 -013 209034 035 027 000 00
182000 1528N 14740W 6967 03156 0062 +095 -013 209034 035 026 000 00
182030 1527N 14739W 6967 03158 0061 +096 -020 211035 036 025 000 03
182100 1526N 14738W 6967 03160 0068 +093 -025 213036 036 025 000 00
182130 1525N 14737W 6967 03161 0069 +093 -024 213035 035 024 000 03
182200 1523N 14735W 6968 03161 0073 +090 -010 214034 035 024 000 00
182230 1522N 14734W 6967 03162 0072 +091 -016 215033 034 025 001 03
182300 1521N 14733W 6966 03166 0076 +090 -017 216032 033 025 001 00
182330 1520N 14732W 6966 03166 0084 +083 -002 218030 031 027 002 03
182400 1518N 14731W 6969 03166 0110 +062 +008 218029 031 028 005 00
182430 1517N 14731W 6968 03167 0085 +084 +016 208028 030 021 003 03
182500 1516N 14729W 6970 03167 0083 +087 +011 204027 028 019 000 03
182530 1515N 14728W 6966 03173 0085 +088 +009 202031 033 020 001 03
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#767 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:39 pm

446
URPN15 KNHC 071835
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 22 20180807
182600 1514N 14726W 6964 03178 0090 +088 +005 196029 032 022 000 00
182630 1513N 14725W 6969 03176 0089 +092 -012 195027 028 020 000 00
182700 1512N 14724W 6966 03181 0088 +095 -023 200025 026 018 000 00
182730 1510N 14723W 6969 03181 0095 +090 -010 196027 028 016 000 00
182800 1509N 14721W 6969 03181 0099 +087 -009 190027 028 018 000 00
182830 1508N 14720W 6967 03185 0095 +091 -011 191026 027 018 000 00
182900 1507N 14719W 6966 03186 0095 +093 -014 192025 025 019 000 00
182930 1506N 14718W 6969 03185 0091 +099 -019 189026 027 020 000 00
183000 1504N 14717W 6962 03192 0093 +096 -016 188026 026 018 000 03
183030 1503N 14716W 6967 03186 0100 +090 -012 188025 026 018 000 03
183100 1502N 14714W 6967 03187 0098 +095 -019 185025 026 018 000 00
183130 1501N 14713W 6967 03189 0099 +095 -022 185025 026 017 000 03
183200 1500N 14712W 6967 03191 0101 +094 -021 183026 026 018 000 00
183230 1458N 14711W 6967 03191 0101 +095 -020 182026 026 017 000 03
183300 1457N 14710W 6967 03190 0099 +095 -023 183025 025 017 000 00
183330 1456N 14709W 6967 03190 0096 +100 -035 186024 025 015 000 00
183400 1455N 14707W 6967 03192 0097 +100 -034 185024 025 014 000 03
183430 1454N 14706W 6966 03193 0097 +098 -030 186024 024 013 000 00
183500 1453N 14705W 6963 03195 0099 +096 -024 185023 024 013 000 03
183530 1453N 14703W 6968 03193 0105 +095 -020 181023 023 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#768 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:40 pm

148
URPN12 KNHC 071833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102018
A. 07/18:00:40Z
B. 16.18 deg N 148.43 deg W
C. 700 mb 2657 m
D. 951 mb
E. 170 deg 12 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 119 kt
I. 291 deg 8 nm 17:58:00Z
J. 024 deg 123 kt
K. 296 deg 10 nm 17:57:30Z
L. 97 kt
M. 123 deg 11 nm 18:04:30Z
N. 219 deg 119 kt
O. 122 deg 10 nm 18:04:00Z
P. 10 C / 3046 m
Q. 17 C / 3052 m
R. 2 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0510E HECTOR OB 06
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 296 / 10 NM 17:57:30Z
;
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#769 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:55 pm

715
URPN15 KNHC 071845
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 23 20180807
183600 1455N 14704W 6970 03193 0106 +095 -026 176023 024 /// /// 03
183630 1457N 14704W 6967 03193 0103 +095 -028 174025 025 015 000 03
183700 1459N 14704W 6966 03195 0099 +097 -022 175025 026 017 000 00
183730 1501N 14705W 6966 03193 0097 +100 -023 171027 027 017 000 03
183800 1503N 14705W 6968 03191 0101 +095 -026 174027 027 017 000 00
183830 1505N 14705W 6968 03190 0095 +099 -029 173027 028 018 000 00
183900 1507N 14705W 6967 03190 0094 +100 -030 172029 030 018 000 00
183930 1509N 14705W 6966 03190 0093 +098 -028 170030 030 018 000 03
184000 1511N 14706W 6967 03189 0098 +095 -031 170030 030 018 000 03
184030 1513N 14706W 6967 03187 0099 +095 -030 170030 031 017 000 00
184100 1515N 14706W 6967 03187 0098 +095 -030 169031 032 014 000 00
184130 1517N 14706W 6969 03186 0098 +095 -031 169033 033 015 000 00
184200 1519N 14706W 6967 03189 0098 +095 -031 167033 033 016 000 00
184230 1521N 14707W 6967 03187 0099 +095 -031 167033 033 016 000 00
184300 1524N 14707W 6969 03187 0099 +095 -030 167034 034 016 000 00
184330 1526N 14707W 6967 03190 0101 +094 -024 165034 035 016 000 00
184400 1528N 14707W 6966 03192 0101 +094 -022 165035 036 018 000 00
184430 1530N 14707W 6968 03185 0096 +095 -027 165036 036 018 001 00
184500 1532N 14708W 6967 03181 0090 +095 -027 164037 037 019 000 00
184530 1534N 14708W 6967 03179 0089 +092 -026 163038 038 019 000 00
$$
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#770 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:56 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78
V (KT) LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78
V (KT) LGEM 115 106 99 93 88 81 79 81 84 88 93 95 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 6 9 7 2 2 5 9 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 0 -5 -1 -1 -5 -2 1 5 0
SHEAR DIR 293 279 245 265 253 218 233 240 301 219 206 184 220
SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 132 133 134 137 140 141 143 145 146 146
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 43 42 41 38 40 42 45 50 53 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 19 19 19 18 20 21 20 23 24 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 27 26 33 47 60 80 71 74 77 75 57
200 MB DIV -33 11 -3 -3 4 35 29 32 38 53 30 44 -1
700-850 TADV -9 -3 1 4 2 0 -4 -1 1 1 5 12 8
LAND (KM) 755 616 490 383 280 324 578 696 875 1087 1296 1491 1672
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.0 151.5 153.0 154.5 157.5 160.7 163.7 166.6 169.3 171.7 173.9 175.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 7 9 21 25 34 46 39 18 12 18

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 0. 4. 5. 5. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -23. -30. -30. -31. -35. -34. -36. -36. -37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 148.5

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 968.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#771 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:05 pm

205
URPN15 KNHC 071855
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 24 20180807
184600 1536N 14708W 6959 03185 0089 +090 -027 163038 039 019 000 00
184630 1538N 14708W 6963 03181 0088 +090 -026 162040 040 019 000 00
184700 1541N 14708W 6969 03174 0087 +090 -026 161041 041 017 000 00
184730 1543N 14709W 6967 03175 0087 +090 -024 160041 041 017 000 00
184800 1546N 14709W 6967 03175 0086 +090 -022 159042 042 020 001 00
184830 1548N 14709W 6967 03177 0088 +090 -023 158043 043 022 000 00
184900 1550N 14709W 6967 03174 0086 +090 -028 155043 044 022 001 03
184930 1553N 14709W 6969 03174 0087 +090 -028 155044 044 023 000 00
185000 1555N 14710W 6966 03178 0093 +090 -023 155044 045 021 000 00
185030 1558N 14710W 6967 03177 0094 +090 -026 155044 044 023 000 00
185100 1600N 14710W 6967 03178 0095 +086 -008 155045 045 022 001 00
185130 1603N 14710W 6967 03177 0093 +088 -004 153046 047 022 001 00
185200 1605N 14711W 6967 03178 0097 +084 +002 154045 046 022 001 00
185230 1607N 14711W 6967 03178 0091 +088 +007 152045 046 022 001 00
185300 1610N 14711W 6965 03179 0106 +076 +006 151047 048 023 000 03
185330 1612N 14711W 6967 03177 0099 +082 +001 151046 048 025 000 00
185400 1615N 14712W 6967 03175 0094 +086 -008 150046 046 025 000 00
185430 1617N 14712W 6969 03174 0092 +090 -021 151045 046 023 000 00
185500 1620N 14712W 6967 03175 0093 +089 -024 152043 044 024 000 00
185530 1622N 14712W 6967 03177 0089 +090 -028 149046 047 025 000 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#772 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:09 pm

483
URPN15 KNHC 071906
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 25 20180807
185600 1624N 14712W 6967 03177 0090 +092 -029 148047 047 026 000 00
185630 1627N 14713W 6967 03177 0088 +091 -027 145046 047 026 000 03
185700 1629N 14713W 6967 03177 0088 +093 -030 141045 047 025 000 00
185730 1631N 14713W 6966 03178 0088 +092 -032 142045 046 026 000 00
185800 1634N 14713W 6969 03175 0088 +093 -030 141046 046 026 000 00
185830 1636N 14714W 6967 03178 0089 +093 -028 138047 048 026 000 00
185900 1639N 14714W 6966 03180 0090 +094 -038 137049 049 025 000 00
185930 1641N 14714W 6969 03178 0093 +095 -034 136048 049 025 000 00
190000 1643N 14714W 6976 03171 0093 +093 -033 135048 048 026 000 00
190030 1645N 14714W 6962 03186 0095 +090 -029 133047 047 026 000 03
190100 1647N 14715W 6969 03180 0094 +091 -029 132047 048 026 000 00
190130 1650N 14715W 6957 03195 0099 +089 -032 131047 047 026 000 00
190200 1652N 14715W 6963 03188 0099 +087 -023 131047 048 024 000 00
190230 1654N 14715W 6967 03184 0103 +085 -019 130047 047 024 000 00
190300 1657N 14716W 6969 03182 0099 +089 -027 131048 048 025 000 00
190330 1659N 14716W 6966 03183 0093 +094 -034 133048 048 022 001 03
190400 1702N 14716W 6967 03184 0090 +098 -033 132047 048 021 000 00
190430 1704N 14716W 6966 03188 0091 +098 -036 132047 047 025 001 00
190500 1707N 14716W 6966 03187 0085 +103 -039 136047 047 023 001 00
190530 1709N 14717W 6966 03188 0089 +099 -038 137049 050 023 000 00
$$
;
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#773 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:27 pm

999
URPN15 KNHC 071915
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 26 20180807
190600 1711N 14717W 6967 03187 0088 +101 -052 136051 052 022 000 00
190630 1714N 14717W 6968 03188 0091 +102 -061 131049 049 016 000 00
190700 1716N 14718W 6966 03189 0089 +103 -067 131049 050 016 001 00
190730 1719N 14719W 6968 03188 0098 +096 -048 131049 050 021 000 00
190800 1721N 14720W 6966 03191 0099 +096 -040 130047 049 021 000 00
190830 1723N 14721W 6979 03178 0103 +096 -021 130047 049 020 000 03
190900 1726N 14721W 6974 03183 0104 +093 -012 134044 046 018 001 00
190930 1728N 14721W 6964 03194 0110 +087 -010 131045 046 017 000 00
191000 1729N 14720W 6968 03190 0109 +087 +004 133042 047 016 001 00
191030 1731N 14720W 6967 03193 0103 +092 -001 132039 040 013 001 03
191100 1733N 14721W 6969 03189 0108 +087 +019 129037 038 /// /// 03
191130 1733N 14723W 6969 03187 0104 +089 +022 127037 038 /// /// 03
191200 1731N 14724W 6970 03190 0102 +094 +011 132037 038 009 001 03
191230 1730N 14723W 6967 03191 0096 +098 +002 125039 040 016 000 03
191300 1728N 14724W 6973 03185 0098 +097 -013 128039 040 016 000 00
191330 1727N 14725W 6963 03195 0092 +101 -027 128041 043 019 001 00
191400 1726N 14727W 6963 03195 0095 +100 -034 128045 046 021 001 00
191430 1726N 14727W 6963 03195 0098 +097 -044 127046 046 019 000 00
191500 1723N 14729W 6969 03188 0096 +100 -036 127047 047 018 000 03
191530 1722N 14731W 6966 03191 0095 +099 -030 126047 047 018 000 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#774 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:28 pm

850
URPN15 KNHC 071926
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 27 20180807
191600 1720N 14732W 6968 03188 0093 +101 -033 126046 047 019 000 00
191630 1719N 14734W 6970 03184 0089 +101 -030 129046 047 018 000 03
191700 1718N 14735W 6965 03187 0089 +099 -026 131047 048 020 000 00
191730 1717N 14736W 6963 03188 0087 +098 -025 129048 048 021 000 00
191800 1715N 14737W 6967 03180 0089 +096 -025 125048 049 019 000 00
191830 1714N 14739W 6969 03174 0086 +095 -024 124050 050 021 000 03
191900 1713N 14740W 6966 03173 0080 +095 -024 124051 051 023 000 00
191930 1712N 14742W 6969 03165 0078 +091 -024 123051 052 023 000 00
192000 1710N 14743W 6965 03171 0081 +089 -024 122051 051 023 000 00
192030 1709N 14744W 6971 03161 0078 +090 -027 126052 052 021 001 03
192100 1708N 14746W 6967 03166 0081 +088 -023 130051 052 023 000 00
192130 1706N 14747W 6966 03165 0079 +086 -012 129049 051 024 000 00
192200 1705N 14748W 6969 03161 0080 +086 -016 130049 049 024 000 00
192230 1704N 14750W 6965 03165 0080 +084 -010 132051 052 025 001 00
192300 1703N 14751W 6967 03161 0074 +089 -020 131052 052 024 001 00
192330 1701N 14752W 6963 03161 0077 +083 -012 132049 052 025 000 00
192400 1700N 14754W 6970 03154 0077 +082 -008 130051 052 026 002 00
192430 1659N 14755W 6970 03154 0075 +082 -007 128051 051 028 002 00
192500 1658N 14756W 6964 03157 0073 +082 -011 130051 051 029 000 03
192530 1656N 14757W 6971 03148 0062 +090 -026 130050 051 031 001 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#775 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:39 pm

019
URPN15 KNHC 071935
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 28 20180807
192600 1655N 14759W 6966 03152 0067 +083 -012 132049 050 031 001 00
192630 1654N 14800W 6962 03155 0071 +079 +004 134049 050 032 001 03
192700 1653N 14801W 6966 03146 0065 +080 +007 133050 051 032 006 00
192730 1651N 14803W 6973 03135 0071 +074 +012 132052 053 032 006 00
192800 1650N 14804W 6965 03146 0059 +084 +006 136054 055 033 001 00
192830 1649N 14805W 6967 03143 0049 +092 -005 138055 056 031 001 03
192900 1648N 14807W 6970 03139 0045 +096 -024 139056 056 033 000 03
192930 1646N 14808W 6969 03139 0045 +095 -031 139055 056 036 001 00
193000 1645N 14809W 6963 03144 0046 +092 -026 136056 057 034 002 00
193030 1644N 14810W 6970 03134 0039 +095 -028 137057 058 035 001 00
193100 1643N 14812W 6970 03131 0039 +094 -029 141060 060 035 000 00
193130 1642N 14813W 6966 03134 0047 +083 -018 143062 063 038 002 00
193200 1641N 14814W 6975 03120 0043 +084 -005 144062 062 039 002 03
193230 1640N 14815W 6961 03133 0029 +091 -023 143063 063 036 003 03
193300 1639N 14817W 6967 03121 0020 +096 -024 144064 064 039 000 03
193330 1638N 14819W 6967 03117 0008 +102 -024 146063 064 042 000 00
193400 1637N 14820W 6967 03112 0002 +103 -024 146063 063 043 001 00
193430 1636N 14822W 6966 03110 0007 +095 -011 144063 063 045 001 00
193500 1635N 14823W 6963 03111 0000 +096 +005 144067 069 046 001 00
193530 1634N 14825W 6965 03104 9990 +099 +007 144071 072 049 000 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: HECTOR - Recon

#776 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:47 pm

334
URPN15 KNHC 071945
AF309 0510E HECTOR HDOB 29 20180807
193600 1633N 14826W 6970 03089 9975 +106 -013 143072 074 054 001 00
193630 1632N 14828W 6965 03089 9972 +102 -011 142077 078 053 001 00
193700 1631N 14830W 6969 03078 9967 +101 -013 140080 081 054 001 00
193730 1631N 14831W 6965 03073 9956 +100 -005 140084 086 060 003 00
193800 1630N 14833W 6965 03058 9939 +101 +000 140091 093 066 006 00
193830 1629N 14835W 6962 03048 9947 +079 +013 139096 098 075 011 00
193900 1628N 14836W 6968 03019 9922 +080 +023 140102 103 085 011 00
193930 1628N 14838W 6963 02999 9888 +082 +027 137105 110 090 007 00
194000 1627N 14840W 6970 02955 9836 +094 +031 135110 111 097 016 00
194030 1626N 14842W 6952 02947 9772 +117 +035 137110 113 104 005 00
194100 1625N 14844W 6977 02869 9697 +143 +043 135115 116 107 000 03
194130 1625N 14846W 6951 02856 9641 +150 +040 136110 117 101 000 03
194200 1624N 14848W 6964 02788 9579 +152 +033 131102 107 089 001 03
194230 1623N 14849W 6980 02715 9524 +156 +023 125084 095 078 001 03
194300 1621N 14851W 6966 02704 9478 +171 +012 122055 072 061 001 03
194330 1620N 14852W 6967 02680 9455 +176 +010 111031 046 047 000 03
194400 1618N 14852W 6972 02678 9461 +170 +011 121015 025 031 001 00
194430 1617N 14853W 6965 02689 9485 +153 +024 248006 007 022 000 00
194500 1615N 14854W 6960 02710 9504 +147 +043 274011 015 022 000 03
194530 1614N 14855W 6971 02708 9516 +143 +045 301016 020 038 001 03
$$
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#777 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:49 pm

18z BEST track.
EP, 10, 2018080718, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1485W, 115, 950, HU
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#778 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:28 pm

Eric Webb wrote:18z BEST track.
EP, 10, 2018080718, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1485W, 115, 950, HU


Should be at least 120kts, recon just confirmed them again on this pass.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#779 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:12 pm

Yikes

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#780 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:14 pm

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 07 2018

Hector remains an impressive hurricane this morning. Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters found a 16 nm diameter eye with maximum
flight level winds of 123 kt in the NW quadrant. The maximum SFMR
wind was 119 kt, but this was near some suspect data. We have
maintained a current intensity of 115 kt for this advisory as a
compromise, which is also in reasonably good agreement with various
subjective and automated satellite estimates. Note that we have
adjusted the wind radii in the northeast quadrant a little larger
based on reconnaissance flight level winds.

Hector continues to move just north of due west, 280 degrees at 14
kt. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with tightly
clustered track guidance. Hector is expected to continue at its
current heading for the next 6-12 hours or so, and then assume a due
westward motion as a deep layer anticylcone to the northeast of
Hawaii builds westward. After 48 hours, Hector is expected to begin
gradually gaining latitude as it passes by the anticyclone and comes
under increasing influence of an upper trough to the west of 170W.

Hector is in a low shear environment, but only marginally warm sea
surface temperatures. This is expected to yield a gradual weakening
trend for the next couple of days. Afterward, the low-shear
environment continues but water temperatures gradually warm, which
may allow Hector to strengthen a bit. Toward the end of the
forecast period, wind shear may start to affect the hurricane, and
the official forecast initiates a new weakening trend. The overall
confidence in the intensity forecast is somewhat low due to these
competing factors. Our intensity forecast tends to follow the ICON
which shows Hector remaining stronger than SHIPS guidance
indicates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.4N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 154.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.7N 157.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.8N 160.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.5N 166.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.8N 171.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 21.0N 176.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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