WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#761 Postby Eric Webb » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:35 pm

Wow I'm really surprised by what HHs just found in Hector, there were several unflagged SFMR readings at 117 KT in the NW quad. He's still a category 4 hurricane.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#762 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:37 pm

Eric Webb wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.


Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though


Could be a combination of factors, one of them probably being the accelerating trade wind flow out in front of it as it nears the longitude of the big island, we knew today was gonna be the hardest day for the forseeable future for Hector, he'll begin to turn the corner by tomorrow as he gets away from the big island, into warmer SSTs, and RHs begin to rise somewhat, he could really take off on Friday & Saturday right before the TUTT tries to shear him on Sunday.


"Turn the corner..." you make me want to write a "Guide to Tropical Cyclone Diseases and Health Problems, and their Treatment" as a joke. Though given I don't know nearly as much about hurricane physics, most of the humor will probably come from ridiculous comparisons to those guides about treating sick tropical fish.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#763 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:39 pm

192500 1631N 15459W 6966 02792 9615 +123 +094 054076 089 117 017 00


117 kt SFMR unflagged. Hmmmm...
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#764 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:46 pm

Eric Webb wrote:Wow I'm really surprised by what HHs just found in Hector, there were several unflagged SFMR readings at 117 KT in the NW quad. He's still a category 4 hurricane.


Considerably higher than what ADT has which is T5.0, 90kts... Recon is irreplaceable
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#765 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:06 pm

WTPA41 PHFO 082102
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Hector's satellite presentation has fluctuated since the previous
advisory, with the eye briefly becoming indiscernible in
traditional infrared imagery before appearing again. The U.S. Air
Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been
penetrating Hector's core this morning, and found some decrease in
observed winds (with maximum flight level winds of 106 kt), while
the surface pressure changed little since last night. Based on a
combination of the aircraft data and subjective and objective
satellite-based intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set at 100 kt, with Hector maintaining major hurricane
status.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/14 kt, with Hector
tracking due west to the south of a mid-level ridge centered to the
distant north. The ridge will move little through Thursday, and the
high-confidence short-term track forecast keeps Hector moving
steadily west well to the south of the main Hawaiian islands.
Given the reduced wind threat to the Big Island, the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County. Hector is expected
to gradually gain latitude after 48 hours as it reaches the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided turn
toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The official track
forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
guidance envelope through day 3. On days 4 and 5, the official
forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous, close to
FSSE and TVCN, which are indicating a sharper poleward turn as a
low aloft develops to the northwest of Hector.

Radar and microwave data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle
may be underway, with a secondary eyewall noted in a 1707 UTC SSMI
image. If this occurs, some weakening and changes to the wind
field may occur in the short-term as the inner eye wall collapses.
However, the overall environment in which Hector is embedded will
remain conducive for the maintenance of a strong hurricane as
shear will be light and SSTs sufficiently warm through Friday.
Therefore, the intensity forecast indicates little change through
36 hours, with some weakening in the longer range as southwesterly
shear potentially increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 160.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 17.5N 165.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.5N 171.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 22.6N 176.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 25.0N 180.0E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard


EPAC -> CPAC -> WPAC.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#766 Postby talkon » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:20 pm

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W 100 KT 115 MPH


What is the purpose of having recon if you end up following Dvorak anyway ...
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#767 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:07 pm

About ~32 units. Another ~10-11 units or so with that forecast and that gets to the IDL
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#768 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:54 pm

Hector has been an amazing hurricane to track and thank goodness it won't directly hit Hawaii besides swells. Thank goodness for Recon for this one. Don't know how, but Hawaii has been really lucky. Good news for them and all, though I'm hoping there isn't any complacency in the future or at all. Radar has been showing rainbands impacting the Big Island for the last few hours bringing some rain (though the TS warning has been canceled). One other thing that's been amazing is how Hector has been plowing through the huge area of dry air to its west and the core was relatively intact and protected from any intrusion (most of the time). At least for a hurricane on that scale. Looking forward to seeing what Hector does as it crosses the rest of the Central Pacific into the West Pac.
Last edited by JaxGator on Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#769 Postby Chris90 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:03 pm

Microwave imagery indicates Hector has put together a much larger eye than any he's had so far. Should look spectacular on satellite once he manages to clear it. If he can continue to maintain a similar structure, especially one that includes a large, stable eye, then he could definitely intensify again and put on another show when he approaches those warmer SSTs near the dateline. Would be fitting. Put on a show when he crossed from the EPAC to the CPAC, so why not do it again when crossing into the WPAC?
He sure knows how to make an entrance.
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I can't stand the rain..

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#770 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:35 am

Becoming a donut:

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#771 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:46 am

Kingarabian wrote:Becoming a donut:

How delicious is Hector going to become?
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#772 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:53 am

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Based on reflectivity data from the South Point WSR-88D radar om the
Big Island, microwave images, and satellite data, it appeared that
Hector went through an eyewall replacement cycle late this
afternoon. Since this reorganization of the hurricane appears to
be complete now, the eye of Hector has warmed and become much better
defined in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours. As
a result, the satellite fix agencies provided subjective Dvorak
satellite-based intensity estimates ranging from 102 kt to 115 kt.
The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near 105 kt. Based on a
blend of all of this input, we are maintaining the initial intensity
for this advisory at 100 kt. Hector has been traveling nearly due
west this evening, so the latest motion is 270/14 kt. Note that
Hector passed about 25 n mi south of buoy 51004 earlier this
evening. Wind gusts of 66 kt and seas up to 30 feet were observed at
this buoy around 0700z this evening.

Hector is expected to continue moving westward along the southern
periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located north of the main
Hawaiian Islands. This ridge is forecast to move little through
Thursday. Hector is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest in 36-48 hours as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. After that, a more pronounced turn toward
the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours. The updated track
forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
guidance envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4
and 5 arises due to differences in the forecast strength and
position of the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest
of Hector. The latest forecast adjusts the track slightly to the
right of the previous forecast. This is based on the latest
consensus guidance, including the TVCN and GFEX, as well as the
HWRF.

Since Hector appears to be maintaining its intensity after the
eyewall replacement cycle, we have opted to keep its intensity
steady through 48 hours. After that, some gradual weakening is
possible from days 3 through 5 as it starts to encounter cooler
water temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear. Interests on
Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Hector. Based on the
latest wind speed probabilities, a Tropical Storm Watch may be
required for Johnston Island on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.6N 158.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.7N 160.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.0N 163.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 17.5N 166.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 18.4N 168.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 20.6N 173.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 24.0N 178.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 27.5N 177.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#773 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:01 am

I can't say I've ever seen a solution where a system moves into the middle of a surface high.

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#774 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:06 am

12z BEST track bumped Hector to 105 KT
EP, 10, 2018080912, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1593W, 105, 957, HU
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#775 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:12 am

I'm almost certain the ACE record for a tropical cyclone east of the dateline was set by John (1994) at 53.97 units, Hector can actually take that record if it keeps on this pace over the next 5 days before it reaches the dateline.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#776 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:07 am

Image
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#777 Postby Eric Webb » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:46 pm

:(
Eric Webb wrote:I'm almost certain the ACE record for a tropical cyclone east of the dateline was set by John (1994) at 53.97 units, Hector can actually take that record if it keeps on this pace over the next 5 days before it reaches the dateline.

I stand corrected the record holder is Fico (1978) although John (1994) is a distant second. Fico has 62.8 ACE units east of the dateline, I don’t see how Hector is gonna beat that.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#778 Postby NotSparta » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:04 pm

Eric Webb wrote::(
Eric Webb wrote:I'm almost certain the ACE record for a tropical cyclone east of the dateline was set by John (1994) at 53.97 units, Hector can actually take that record if it keeps on this pace over the next 5 days before it reaches the dateline.

I stand corrected the record holder is Fico (1978) although John (1994) is a distant second. Fico has 62.8 ACE units east of the dateline, I don’t see how Hector is gonna beat that.


Yeah, Hector would need to be at ~140kt from here on out until the IDL
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#779 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:38 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I can't say I've ever seen a solution where a system moves into the middle of a surface high.

Image

Yep, looks bogus as systems can’t move into ridges
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#780 Postby Visioen » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:00 pm

Excerpt from the discussion:
Since this reorganization of the hurricane appears to
be complete now, the eye of Hector has warmed and become much better
defined in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours. As
a result, the satellite fix agencies provided subjective Dvorak
satellite-based intensity estimates ranging from 102 kt to 115 kt.
The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near 105 kt. Based on a
blend of all of this input, we are maintaining the initial intensity
for this advisory at 100 kt.


Am I missing something? How do you blend that to 100 kt?
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